847
FXUS64 KSJT 111802
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
102 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Early this morning, skies were mostly cloudy with temperatures in
the mid 60s.  A stationary front was more or less washed out near
the Rio Grande, with easterly winds carrying gulf moisture all the
way into west Texas. At the upper levels, a shortwave ridge was over
Texas, while a trough was moving through the southwestern US. This
upper-level trough will approach Texas this morning and eject
multiple mid-level impulses over the region through the day.
Models show elevated instability of 500-1500 J/kg above the
inversion. As mid-level moisture increases with the developing
southwest flow aloft, chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms will increase throughout the day. Most of these
storms are not expected to be severe, but a few could produce some
large hail where steeper midlevel lapse rates occur. Cloud cover
should help to hold temperatures in the mid to upper 70s this
afternoon. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are
expected overnight as additional impulses pass over the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing Sunday morning as a warm
front moves through. An isolated severe thunderstorms will be
possible as GFS MUCAPES increase as much as 2500 J/kG. Main
concern is an large hail, but there is also the potential for an
isolated tornado, with SPC having a 2 percent risk south of I-20.
Shower and thunderstorms become isolated by Sunday as the upper
low over southern Colorado moves into Kansas.

Monday a Pacific front will move through with drier west to
northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. An isolated thunderstorm is possible
Monday, mainly along/east of a Coleman to Eden to Junction line.

Wednesday, severe thunderstorms will again be possible, as south
winds advect in significant moisture from the Gulf, and a
shortwave moves through, and rounds a large scale upper trough
over the Western U.S.. With strong instability, large hail,
damaging winds and localize flooding will be possible. Thursday, a
cold front with drier air will move through, with isolated
thunderstorms possible...some possibly severe, as moisture and
instability will be slow to clear. Warm and drier air are then
expected Friday with lighter west to northwest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon and evening mainly across the western half of the area.
Confidence was not high enough to place a mention of thunder at
any of the terminals but will monitor radar trends the rest of the
afternoon and amend as necessary. A better chance of more
widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur on Sunday morning
as an upper level disturbance moves across the region. Otherwise,
ceilings will lower back down to MVFR/IFR levels overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  77  61  84 /  50  90  20   0
San Angelo  64  85  61  90 /  50  60  10   0
Junction    66  86  65  93 /  50  50  10  10
Brownwood   64  76  64  85 /  50  90  30  10
Sweetwater  62  80  60  85 /  50  80   0   0
Ozona       65  85  61  89 /  40  30  10   0
Brady       65  78  65  85 /  50  80  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...42