Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 170019
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EDT Thu May 16 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Another quiet night ahead with the exception of fog developing after
midnight. Some of the fog may briefly become dense toward daybreak,
especially over our Florida and SE Alabama zones. Low temps will
generally be in the lower 60s.
.SHORT TERM [Friday through Sunday]...
The closed low (currently over OK) is expected to translate slowly
eastward across the Southeast U.S. through this weekend. However,
the bulk of the deep layer moisture and Q-G forcing associated with
this feature is likely to be north of our forecast area. This will
leave our region with PoPs in the 20-30% range, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when instability and mesoscale boundary
interactions are maximized. It will finally feel like late Spring,
as highs approach 90 deg and lows stay in the 60s.
.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
.Aviation [Through 00Z Friday]...
Potential for MVFR fog development late tonight into tomorrow
morning at all sites. Locally dense fog will result in IFR conditions
from KTLH westward. Fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise and
conditions will return to VFR with light southerly winds.
Winds and seas will be at their typically low late spring/early
summertime values. Winds and inland water chop may increase at the
coast during the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze circulation
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 88 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 66 82 67 83 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 62 88 65 88 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 62 89 64 90 65 / 0 10 10 20 20
Valdosta 61 87 63 88 63 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cross City 61 88 62 88 63 / 0 0 10 20 10
Apalachicola 64 80 65 81 67 / 0 0 0 10 0
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Fournier