Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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112 FXUS62 KTBW 020542 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 142 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024 VFR conditions anticipated overnight and most of today across terminals. Then, the sea breeze could bing the potential for isolated showers and a storm or two to develop in the afternoon hours, especially near LAL and PGD with a non zero chance for FMY/RSW. The main concern would be gusty and erratic winds near showers and temporary MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Otherwise, easterly winds prevail, before shifting west behind the sea breeze at SRQ/TPA/PIE. && .UPDATE... Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024 It has been an active evening across SWFL especially where a deeper moisture column support several thunderstorms. With 500mb temperatures hovering around -10C, this also led to some small hail reports, in addition to two funnel clouds across the region. With the atmosphere now worked over in SWFL, most of the activity has now wound down. There are just a couple showers ongoing as of this writing. However, the East and West Coast sea breeze boundaries are just now colliding in Central Florida. Could this potentially elide a couple more storms yet? Perhaps. Early data from the 0Z sounding shows a deep enough moisture layer for what is most likely to be low-topped showers rather than large and intense thunderstorms as were seen earlier this evening. The moisture column is more shallow the farther north one travels, and there is also a stronger inversion and sharper cutoff to the aforementioned moisture. This also should mean that anything new to develop is likely to be isolated and short-lived. Just a couple little tweaks to the forecast have been made to the next couple hours to reflect current trends and expectations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 72 90 71 / 20 0 10 0 FMY 90 70 90 69 / 20 10 10 10 GIF 90 67 91 66 / 20 0 10 0 SRQ 89 69 90 70 / 20 0 10 0 BKV 92 64 91 64 / 20 0 10 0 SPG 88 73 87 73 / 20 0 10 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Flannery DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis