Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
474
FXXX10 KWNP 130031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 13-May 15 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 13-May 15 2024
May 13 May 14 May 15
00-03UT 6.67 (G3) 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 4.67 (G1) 3.67
06-09UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.67
09-12UT 4.00 3.00 2.33
12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.33
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 1.00
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
Rationale: G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storms are expected on 13 May due to
ongoing CME activity. Continuing, but weaker CME influences are
anticipated to decrease responses down to unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels
on 14 May.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
above S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 13-May 15 2024
May 13 May 14 May 15
S1 or greater 60% 60% 5%
Rationale: S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms remain likely
due primarily to the enhanced solar energetic particle environment, and
favorable location and potential of Region 3664 for future events 13-14
May.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 12 2024 1626 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 13-May 15 2024
May 13 May 14 May 15
R1-R2 95% 95% 15%
R3 or greater 75% 75% 5%
Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected 13-14
May, with some likelihood of further R3 (Strong) events due primarily to
the flare potential of Region 3664.