128
FNUS75 KTFX 011838
FWSTFX

Spot Forecast for Kelly Gulch Rx...USFS
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1238 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 MDT on May 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Numerous snow showers will be around through the rest of the day
today. Snow becomes more stratiform in nature late tonight and
into early Thursday, which is when the bulk of precipitation is
forecast. The chance for wetting precipitation between midnight
tonight and midnight tomorrow night is 70%. Light snow/rain
lingers through Friday morning, though chances for wetting
precipitation late Thursday night into Friday is only around 10%.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....27-32.
Max humidity........71-76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Snow likely in the
                    morning, then rain and snow in the afternoon.
CWR.................55 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....44-49.
Min humidity........52-57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of snow
                    through the night.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....26-31.
Max humidity........83-88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......North winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 5 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph.
Haines Index........

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of snow in
                    the morning, then chance of rain in the
                    afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....50-55.
Min humidity........30-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Northwest winds up to 5 mph increasing to
                    around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...McDowell
Requested by...Menning
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412948.0/TFX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL william.menning@usda.gov, tfx.ops@noaa.gov