881
FXUS63 KTOP 071719
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1219 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and mild this week.

- A few low chances for light showers Tuesday night and Thursday
  afternoon.

- A warm-up possible by the end of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The upper-level trough that was responsible for yesterday`s
storms will slowly lift into the northern Plains today and begin
retrograding slightly back to the west. This will keep us under
an upper-level jet streak for at least the first half of the
week. As a weak inverted trough develops later tonight, enough
ascent via the upper-level jet streak and weak convergence along
the trough may spark some light showers across northern Kansas.
By Thursday, the upper low that has been slowly translating across
the northern Plains finally exits to the east. As it does, it
may drag a weak cold front south across the central Plains.
There may be enough wrap around moisture and forcing along the
front for some light showers to develop Thursday afternoon.
Otherwise, the bulk of the week looks dry and mild with
temperatures generally in the 70s for highs and 40s/50s for
lows. The overall pattern for the weekend into early next week
gets rather messy, but there are some indications that an upper-
level ridge may try and move into the Plains, which would
result in warmer temperatures by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR at terminals highlighted by gusty west winds up to 20 kts
through 00Z. Mid clouds increase from the west overnight as
winds drop off and become light and VRB as an inverted sfc
trough passes to the south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Jones