National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KTOP 100808
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
308 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small chances for rain southeast today then dry through the
  weekend.

- Windy late tonight and Thursday.

- High temperatures approach record levels this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Mid and high level cloud has spread northeast across southern and
eastern Kansas downstream of an upper trough over west Texas. As
the trough moves northeast, some light showers cannot be ruled
out across far southeastern locations on the north end of the
system`s deformation zone. A northern branch shortwave ushers a
cold front through the area late this afternoon into the pre-
dawn hours of Thursday. North-northwest winds become windy,
mainly during the day Thursday, though HREF/LREF chances for
Advisory speeds are quite low. The dry air and strong winds will
make for a difficult day to handle any burns. Winds back off
late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning but speeds less than
5 MPH look unlikely during peak cooling Thursday night. LREF
data showing the likelihood of sub-freezing temps and also the
combination of lighter winds and frost-level temps are quite
low, especially for southern locations where there is greater
concern for early season vegetation to be damaged.

Southerly winds return by early Friday afternoon with broad upper
ridging in place into the weekend. Quite warm temperatures are in
line for at least the weekend periods. ESAT data showing slightly
more extreme 850 mb temps than a few days ago, giving at least small
potential for record highs by Sunday. Overnight temps also quite
warm, not too far below normal highs, but record warm lows look more
unlikely.

An upper trough works its way east from the West Coast into the
central Plains from the late weekend into early next week.
Differences in the speed and orientation of this wave become
apparent by Sunday nigh and amplify with time, with northern branch
energy complicating things. At this point NBM chance PoPs seem
reasonable from Monday afternoon into Tuesday with cooling though
still warm conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions will continue in a dry middle and lower
troposphere. Periods of high cloud will move through associated
with the upper trough to the south. Winds will respond to the
trough with a modest north to northeast wind developing around
midday Wednesday, then veer to the north-northwest behind a
cold front near the end of this forecast.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Poage