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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

000
FNUS73 KUNR 131243
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Ellsworth Spring 2024...US FWS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
643 AM MDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 MDT on April 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Warm temperatures and low afternoon humidities can be
expected across the area today and on Sunday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening, with dry
weather on Sunday. Unsettled and gradually colder weather will return
for much of next week, with good chances for showers and some
thunderstorms Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are
possible on Monday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........Around 18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 4 to 8 mph becoming northwest by 10 AM then
                    by noon becoming northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to around 26 mph
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds possible near any
                    showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......13400 to 13900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until around 10 AM then becoming Excellent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 25
                    mph in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    possible near any showers or thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........Around 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 20 mph increasing to 20 to 25
                    mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......8700 to 9200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...GR
Requested by...Bela HArrington
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410367.2/UNR
.DELDT 04/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bela_harrington@fws.gov