Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 312343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AT 20Z WILL KEEP
THE SHORT TERM QUIET... BUT COLD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
MORNING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY RAN 5-10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS... AND TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 20S DURING THE
TIME MANY WILL BE OUT TRICK-OR-TREATING. PARENTS SHOULD CONSIDER
ENSURING THEIR CHILDREN WEAR THE APPROPRIATE CLOTHING WITH THEIR
COSTUMES FOR THE COLD WEATHER.

WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS... A SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EVENT WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE TONIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO
UNDERCUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE AND PUT EMPHASIS ON THE GEM REGIONAL
IN THE WAY OF TEMPS. EXPECTING MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE TEENS... AND WARMER IN THE 20S NEAR THE LAKE.

THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SAG TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THE CWA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT... WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND WILL BE GUSTY... MAINLY ALONG OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 25MPH OR SO... BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR 10MPH ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW... TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN THEY
WERE TODAY... BUT NOT BY MUCH. DESPITE THE COLD...SUNNY SKIES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTROLLED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA...BUT IN THE MEANTIME....
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL GIVE A FAIR DAY ON SUNDAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT
NORMAL LEVELS..IN THE 40S. THESE SOUTH WINDS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO
A SFC LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS THE HEIGHT
FALLS BRINGS A TROF ONTO THE WESTERN COAST.
ON SUNDAY THE WARM PUSH WILL BRING 8H TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ON STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SFC LOW WILL
BRING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY  TWO
VERY STRONG VORT MAXES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROF. THE
NORTHERN BRANCH MAY STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BRINGING SOME SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE NO ICE IN THE COLUMN SO DO NOT EXPECT SNOW.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WE GO INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY
SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA.
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE NORTHLAND
GETTING INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER
WESTERN AREAS WHERE SOME GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  38  29  45 /   0   0   0   0
INL  18  39  26  46 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  19  40  29  48 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  17  41  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  20  41  29  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...MELDE






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