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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 292226
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
325 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINTER STORM STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD START PRODUCING SHOWERS OVER
THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF FRIDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO ARIZONA SATURDAY MORNING SHOWERS COULD INCREASE AGAIN.
OVERALL...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DROP MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL
BELOW 7000 FEET...WITH HEAVY SNOW OF 8 TO 16 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO RECOVER
NICELY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BECOMING WELL ORGANIZED WITH UPPER LOW
WEST OF CENTRAL BAJA...WITH NICE TROPICAL PLUME CONNECTION FROM THE
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE CWA...AND RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY LATE THIS
EVENING. SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TWO DIFFERENT REGIMES. FIRST REGIME
SHOULD RESEMBLE QUASI-TROPICAL PHASE WITH WARM...MOIST AIR OVER
RUNNING THE COLD FRONT. TPW BLENDED PRODUCT SHOWS CURRENT PW`S OVER
THE AREA OF .5-.7 INCHES AND MODELS INCREASE THIS TO .7-.9 INCHES
FRIDAY. THIS IS OVER 300% OF NORMAL. SO BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
EVENING A RELATIVELY STEADY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL MODERATE
AMOUNTS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH (7000 FT SACS AND
8000 FT GILA REGION) SO RE-ARRANGED THE SNOW WARNING WORDING TO KEEP
WARNING CRITERIA SNOW ABOVE THESE ELEVATIONS.

SECOND REGIME BEGINS AFTER FIRST EXPERIENCING A DRY SLOT MOVING OVER
AREA FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SWITCH REGIME TO
MUCH MORE SHOWERY...SPOTTY PRECIP PATTERN AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES
OVER THE AREA AND DESTABILIZES THE AIRMASS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL
FINALLY THOUGH NOT DRAMATICALLY. EXPECT LEVELS AROUND 6000 FT EAST
AND 7000 FT WEST...THOUGH SOME MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD REACH
5500-6000 FT. GFS/NAM12 STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT (15-20") SNOWFALLS
OVER THE HIGH SACS AND BLACK RANGE. CALENDAR (NOT 24 HR) DAY SNOWFALL
RECORD IS 16" AT CLOUDCROFT...MAY APPROACH THAT. EXPECT TOP END SNOW
AROUND 10" BLACK RANGE AND 10-16" OVER THE SACS.

ECMWF/GFS QUITE CLOSE IN ENDING THE EVENT. BOTH DROP UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAJA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH CONNECTING TROUGH BACK TO
THE EAST NOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE DRY WITH VERY FEW CLOUDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY STILL
BELOW NORMAL BUT THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND REMAINING
THAT WAY THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/00Z-31/00Z...
AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN LOWERING CEILINGS ALONG
WITH RAIN AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. INITIALLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH P6SM VCSH BKN050-060 WITH SFC WINDS 08015G25KT. SURFACE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO SPEEDS BELOW AT KTCS AFTER 04Z WHILE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL OTHER LOCATIONS. AFTER 06Z REGULAR
EXCURSIONS INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH 3SM -RA
OVC020-030 AS AREAS OF RAINFALL MOVE THROUGH. OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS
INTO IFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z DUE TO 1-2SM
WITH THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF RAINFALL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AND SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE
JOGGING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOIST AIR TO THE REGION THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDS
AND GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION STARTING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWLAND LOCATIONS COULD
EVENTUALLY SEE AS MUCH AS 1 INCH OF RAINFALL WITH MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN LOOKING AT 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE DEPENDING ON EXACT
ELEVATION.

MEANWHILE GUSTY EAST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES. AT THE SAME TIME COLDER AIR IS FILTERING IN AND
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW
DAYS. THE COLDER TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEWPOINTS
RESULTING IN ELEVATED MIN RH VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DRYING BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
THE GENERAL RULE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 42  47  40  53  38 /  80  90  50  40  30
SIERRA BLANCA           40  46  38  52  37 /  60  80  60  50  30
LAS CRUCES              40  45  38  51  38 /  90  90  50  40  30
ALAMOGORDO              37  46  36  50  34 /  90  90  50  40  30
CLOUDCROFT              27  36  28  37  25 / 100 100  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  44  36  48  35 /  90  80  50  40  30
SILVER CITY             39  43  36  46  35 / 100  90  60  50  40
DEMING                  41  45  37  50  36 /  90  90  50  40  30
LORDSBURG               41  47  38  51  35 / 100  80  50  40  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      42  47  42  53  41 /  80  90  50  40  30
DELL CITY               37  45  34  51  33 /  70  80  50  50  30
FORT HANCOCK            44  52  41  56  38 /  60  80  50  40  30
LOMA LINDA              39  43  36  48  38 /  80  90  50  40  30
FABENS                  41  49  38  53  36 /  80  80  50  40  30
SANTA TERESA            41  46  38  52  38 /  90  90  50  40  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  45  38  51  39 /  90  90  50  40  30
JORNADA RANGE           40  46  34  51  33 /  90  90  50  40  30
HATCH                   40  47  36  52  35 /  90  90  50  40  30
COLUMBUS                42  46  40  51  38 /  90  80  50  40  30
OROGRANDE               39  46  38  51  37 /  90  80  50  40  30
MAYHILL                 28  37  31  39  29 / 100 100  60  50  40
MESCALERO               30  39  29  40  27 / 100 100  60  50  40
TIMBERON                32  41  32  43  31 /  90 100  60  50  30
WINSTON                 33  40  33  42  32 / 100  80  50  50  30
HILLSBORO               41  44  36  46  37 /  90  80  50  50  30
SPACEPORT               39  46  35  50  34 /  90  90  50  40  30
LAKE ROBERTS            39  44  34  45  33 / 100 100  60  50  40
HURLEY                  38  43  34  46  35 / 100  90  50  50  40
CLIFF                   39  46  39  46  32 / 100  90  50  50  40
MULE CREEK              38  44  37  45  29 / 100  90  60  50  40
FAYWOOD                 41  43  36  46  37 / 100  90  50  50  30
ANIMAS                  41  50  38  53  36 / 100  80  50  40  30
HACHITA                 41  49  37  52  34 / 100  80  50  40  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          41  54  37  52  33 / 100  80  50  40  30
CLOVERDALE              44  52  40  52  37 / 100  90  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST
     SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NMZ402-414>416.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/LANEY








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