Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 202144
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
344 PM MDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with temperatures a few degrees above normal will
continue on Thursday. A deepening trough over the west coast will
begin to pull up some moisture from Mexico on Friday, with showers
and thunderstorms expected near and east of the Rio Grande Friday
afternoon and Saturday. A few storms may become severe, with
strong winds and hail a possibility. The best chance for
precipitation will be over eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties.
Drier air will prevail for Sunday and Monday. A backdoor cold
front will bring cooler temperatures for Tuesday, and may interact
with another upper level storm system and bring another shot at
showers and thunderstorms for a wider area on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry westerly flow aloft continues across the area, with a marked
decrease in low level moisture as well. Surface dewpoints range
from the mid-40s along and south of I-10 to the upper-20s at
KTCS. Combined with strong capping aloft, we barely have a few Cu
popping up, mostly in the New Mexico Bootheel.

The pattern will start to shift tomorrow (Thu) as a broad trough
over the Pacific Northwest amplifies and digs south towards the
Great Basin. Upper level moisture will start to stream up from the
Sierra Madres, but in terms of precip, Thursday looks to remain
dry area-wide.

For Friday, a narrow band of subtropical moisture looks to set up
mainly along and east of an ALM-ELP line. Increasing deep layer
wind shear and moderate CAPE (1000-1500 J/Kg over the Otero Mesa
and Hudspeth County) will lead to organized thunderstorms,
possibly severe.

Low level moisture looks to get a boost on Saturday as SE low
level flow increases, with upper-50s and lower 60s dewpoints
advecting into areas east of ELP. Deep layer (0-6km AGL) shear of
30 to 40 knots and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg suggests a better risk
of severe thunderstorms. Steep lapse rates in the -10 to -20C
layer and Wet Bulb Zero heights around 8000` suggest enhanced hail
risk.

While the focus for thunderstorms will mainly be east of El Paso
(the city) on Friday, Saturday is a little more in question and
will depend on how deep the low level moisture push ends up being.
As of now, the risk for ELP looks a little higher Saturday versus
Friday.

Drier air will push in from the west on Sunday. A backdoor cold
front is still on track for Monday Night/Tuesday morning, likely
heralded by downslope winds along west-facing mountain slopes,
followed by slightly below normal temperatures to the area for
Tuesday. An approaching upper level low over Arizona could result
in an overrunning situation with more widespread thunderstorms
possible behind the front on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 21/00Z-22/00Z...Westerly flow over the region
will is bringing drier conditions to most areas...with CLR to
SCT070-100. Sfc winds GNLY 250-280 / 12G22KTS 18-03Z then
270/10kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warm weather conditions will continue for another couple of
days. Westerly winds Wednesday afternoon will be occasionally gusty,
but should stay below critical levels. Min RH`s the next two days
will be in the 20`s in the lowlands and in the 30`s in the
mountains. By Friday and Saturday a slight chance for rain, mainly
east of the Rio Grande will return. Min RH`s for Sunday and Monday
will be in the teens west of the river and in the 20`s and 30`s east
of the river. Cooler temperatures and rain chances are forecast to
spread back across much of the area for the start of next week as an
upper trough from the west starts to interact with a subtropical
moisture plume.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           67  91  67  89 /   0   0   0  40
Las Cruces              60  90  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              62  91  63  89 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              47  68  47  68 /   0   0   0  50
Truth or Consequences   61  89  64  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             55  82  55  78 /   0   0   0  10
Deming                  58  90  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               60  89  59  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      70  92  70  91 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               61  94  65  92 /   0   0   0  40
Fort Hancock            68  95  69  93 /   0   0   0  50
Loma Linda              64  88  66  87 /   0   0   0  30
Fabens                  66  94  70  92 /   0   0   0  30
Santa Teresa            67  92  68  90 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          64  90  65  89 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           62  91  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   61  91  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                61  92  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               66  91  67  90 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 52  79  54  77 /   0   0   0  50
Mescalero               52  78  53  77 /   0   0   0  40
Timberon                50  77  52  76 /   0   0   0  50
Winston                 45  81  48  78 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               54  87  57  84 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport               62  89  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            46  79  47  76 /   0   0   0  10
Hurley                  52  84  53  80 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                   48  86  50  82 /   0   0   0  10
Mule Creek              55  84  54  77 /   0   0   0  10
Faywood                 54  85  55  82 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                  58  90  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 57  90  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          58  91  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              60  85  56  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 20-Novlan


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