Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 222004
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
104 PM MST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry borderland weather with light winds will be the theme
for your the work week, but our cooler weather will hang back
through Wednesday as a weak disturbance moves across from the
four corners. A larger pacific system expected over the northern
states late in the week, may develop some west breezes Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large occluded UL low dominates our CONUS weather pattern, with
fairly progressive Pac jet over the NW states. Current satellite
imagery depicts minor shortwave over ERN AM/So Cal, evidenced by
hints at developing baroclinic leaf in the mid and high cloud
field over that area. Area RAOB reports indicate the deep west-
northwest flow aloft behind our recent low, which sustains a dry
layer to 500mb. As a consequence, our very dry sfc conditions
continue with area dewpoints remaining in the low teens to single
digits for many locations this afternoon. This was the reason for
the chilly readings this morning, with Beaverhead RAWS reaching
zero F and the AWOS at the Grant County Airport reporting a low
of 10 F.

Quasi-split flow will continue across the far southwestern states
through at least mid week. This will support the development of
our AM shortwave into a minor cutoff upper low over far northern
Mexico by Wed. Small scale of this feature will limit its
attendant moisture advection capabilities, thus have included
additional cloud cover in the near term to this forecast package.
No significant weather is expected with this small disturbance
but we will see highs remain a little below normal through mid
week. This is as its development draws some additional ll
continental air across from the northeast.

As a cutoff feature, low is expected to linger over the borderland
through at least Wed night, before transition to more progressive
pacific pattern for the CONUS lifts disturbance northeast later
in the week.

A larger pacific trough will graze the southern rockies by weeks
end, and could bring some westerly breezes Friday afternoon.
Trends with successive GFS and ECMWF solutions, have trended more
progressive with this feature the last few days.

IMPACTS TONIGHT - MORE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ON TAP:
Protect People, your Pets, Plants and Pipes! Bulk of cirrus shield
asked with our minor shortwave, should be east of most areas
within or CWFA by the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning.  Below...a
very dry airmass will remain in place. Thus lows will end up
similar to last night`s readings, especially out west.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/00Z-24/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 through 12Z then decreasing
clouds and skies becoming SKC-FEW150. Winds east to northeast at
5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warming trend will be occurring across the Borderland over the
remainder of the week with high temperatures getting about 4 to 7
degrees above normal by Friday and into the weekend.  Dry air will
accompany this warming trend which will keep relative humidities
mainly in the teens with some single digits possible. Winds will
remain light however with just slightly breezy conditions possible
Friday. Vent rates will generally remain in the poor to fair
categories this week with some patchy areas where good rates may
occur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 26  55  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           27  54  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              22  54  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              20  50  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              18  42  16  43 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   22  53  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             24  53  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  21  54  22  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               21  54  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      30  53  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               23  54  22  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            26  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              24  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  20  55  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            25  54  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          23  53  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           15  53  18  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   16  56  20  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                23  52  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               25  53  24  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 21  47  20  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               18  47  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                22  44  20  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 12  50  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               20  53  21  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               18  53  20  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            11  53  10  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  17  53  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   13  56  15  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              19  54  17  56 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 22  54  23  54 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  19  54  21  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 20  53  21  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          21  53  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              25  51  27  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

22-Tripoli/26-Grzywacz


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