Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 282030
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
230 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING DISTURBANCE...A WEAK FRONT...AND PLENTY OF MONSOON
MOISTURE SHOULD MEAN MORE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND. BEGINNING SATURDAY BIT OF
DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. BY SUNDAY AREAS EAST OF
THE RIO GRANDE SHOULD BE FREE OF STORMS...WITH STORMS SHOVED WEST
OF THE RIO GRANDE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY THE MOISTURE
EASES BACK EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND ONCE AGAIN ALL AREAS ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND REGION WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY HEALTHY ACROSS FAR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH PW`S OF THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING AT 1.18".
THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD UP THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
CONTINUED MODERATE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE. FOR TODAY THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A BIT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR STORM
ENHANCEMENT AS A SHARP DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND
DRAGS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER AND POSSIBLY PUSHES A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT IN. THIS MAY MEAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
AREAS PRIMARILY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER...THANKS TO
DAYTIME HEATING DESTABILIZING THE AIRMASS...ALL AREAS WILL SEE
FAIR CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED
OVER MOST ZONES INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS PRETTY MUCH LIKE TODAY AS FAR AS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY ARE CONCERNED...BUT WE DO LOSE
THE ADDED DYNAMICS OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVE. THUS STILL AREA-WIDE
STORMS CHANCES ONCE DAYTIME HEATING OVERCOMES MORNING
STABILITY...BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE DOWN A BIT.

SUNDAY THE EFFECTS OF SOME PERSISTENT NE FLOW ALOFT BEHIND
TONIGHT`S TROUGH PASSAGE WILL SHOVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE WEST AND
BRING SOME DRY AIR ALOFT IN OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE ZONES EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MAY BE RAIN/STORM FREE DUE TO THE DRIER
AIR...WHILE THE FAR WESTERN ZONES KEEP ISOL/SCT PCPN/STORMS THOSE
AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS.

FOR MUCH OF THIS 7-DAY PERIOD THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLOWLY
MIGRATORY UPPER HIGH WITH A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH TO OUR
WEST. THE MOISTURE LOOKS TO WANT TO LINGER UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE. FOR THE SUN/MON TIME-FRAME THE RIDGE/MOISTURE AXIS IS WEST
OF OUR REGION. BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK EAST OVER OUR AREA
WITH MOISTURE ARRIVING BACK WITH IT. THIS APPEARS IN RESPONSE TO THE
WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING SOME GROUND TO THE EAST. FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIODS THE RIDGE AND MOISTURE REMAIN LOCKED OVER THE
REGION AND THUS WE SETTLE BACK INTO A DAILY ROUTINE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DAYTIME/EVENING STORMS FOR ALL AREAS WITH A FAIRLY
UNIFORM MOIST ATMOSPHERE FAVORING NO AREA OVER ANY OTHER WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MOUNTAINS OVER LOWLANDS.

BOTTOM LINE: NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS THROUGH OUT...BUT WARMER SUN AND
MON. SCATTERED STORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. DOWNTICK IN STORMS
CENTRAL AND EAST FOR SUN AND MON. RETURN TO CURRENT AREA-WIDE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE ONWARD.

14-BIRD

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 29/00Z-30/00Z.
P6SM SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU MUCH OF PD. SCT 1-3SM TSRA
BKN040-060 WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS MAINLY THRU 06Z...ISOLD STORMS
AFT 18Z. WIND SHIFT TO THE E TO SE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE SHIFTING THE WINDS TO THE EAST THIS EVENING
AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED
BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S FOR THE LOWLANDS AND 30S AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

26-GRZYWACZ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 72  93  71  95 /  40  20  10   0
SIERRA BLANCA           67  91  67  95 /  40  10  10   0
LAS CRUCES              67  91  66  94 /  40  20  10   0
ALAMOGORDO              67  91  67  95 /  50  20  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              48  69  46  71 /  50  30  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   66  89  66  92 /  30  20  20  20
SILVER CITY             63  83  61  85 /  40  40  30  40
DEMING                  67  92  66  94 /  30  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               67  92  66  94 /  30  30  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  93  71  95 /  40  20  10   0
DELL CITY               66  93  66  96 /  50  10  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            69  94  69  97 /  40  20  10   0
LOMA LINDA              68  89  66  91 /  50  20  10   0
FABENS                  69  94  68  96 /  40  20  10   0
SANTA TERESA            69  92  69  95 /  40  20  10   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  90  68  95 /  40  20  10  10
JORNADA RANGE           67  91  67  95 /  40  20  10  10
HATCH                   66  92  65  95 /  30  20  20  10
COLUMBUS                67  93  66  95 /  30  20  20  10
OROGRANDE               68  91  67  95 /  40  20  10  10
MAYHILL                 54  77  52  77 /  50  30  20  20
MESCALERO               55  79  53  80 /  50  30  20  30
TIMBERON                56  78  54  79 /  50  30  20  10
WINSTON                 59  81  56  81 /  40  30  30  50
HILLSBORO               64  89  63  91 /  40  30  20  40
SPACEPORT               66  90  66  93 /  30  20  10   0
LAKE ROBERTS            56  84  53  83 /  50  40  40  60
HURLEY                  64  86  62  87 /  40  30  30  30
CLIFF                   60  88  60  89 /  40  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              58  87  58  87 /  40  40  40  40
FAYWOOD                 65  87  62  89 /  40  30  30  30
ANIMAS                  67  92  66  93 /  30  30  30  30
HACHITA                 66  92  65  93 /  30  20  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  89  63  89 /  30  30  30  50
CLOVERDALE              66  85  62  85 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14/26



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