Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 300907
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
307 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT LOSS OF
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND FEWER
STORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND FLIRT
WITH 100 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FOCUSED WEST. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...INCLUDING
THE FOURTH OF JULY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT
IN A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT THE AREA HAS TAKEN FULL ADVANTAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING SW AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR NW. EVEN AT 3AM THIS MORNING A NEW BATCH OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SIERRA COUNTY AS ANOTHER BATCH EXITS
THE SW CWFA. THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY TENDS TO STRATIFY THE
ATMOSPHERE AND LIMIT CONVECTION THE FOLLOWING AFTN/EVE. GIVEN THAT
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT LOSS OF MOISTURE (MARGINAL DROP IN PW`S AND
DEWPOINTS TDY VS MON) AND A BIT OF STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH WE DO EXPECT FEWER STORMS AND LESS STORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE FOCUS OF INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL DYNAMICS FOR STORM FORMATION LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE. THUS BETTER POPS WEST AND NW VS E AND SE.

TEMPS LOOKS QUITE WARM WITH AFTN MAXS ACROSS THE AREA A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWLAND TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE M-U90S
TODAY AND WARM TO THE U90-N100 WEDNESDAY. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT
AND JUST A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE AT MID/LOW LEVELS WE WILL SEE
PLENTY OF SUN WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND MOST OF THAT OF THE FAIR-
WEATHER TYPE.

THUR AND FRI THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER US NOW LOOKS TO ROTATE AND
REPOSITION TO OUT SW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A BIT OF A MOISTURE
INCREASE ON DEEPER AND STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. IN
ADDITION THIS OPENS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBANCES TRACKING
OVER OUR REGION. THUS WE LOOK TO SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN/STORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS MEANS SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
AREA MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED STORMS OVER LOWLANDS FOR THE 4TH OF
JULY.

FOR THE WEEKEND A MIXED SIGNAL MAKES THE FORECAST CHALLENGING AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGED TO SHIFT SE AND SETTLE OVER NM ONCE
AGAIN. HOWEVER THE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE UP A BIT. THUS WE ARE BACK
TO THE BATTLE BETWEEN MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND SOME AMOUNT OF STABLE
CAPPING ABOVE WORKING TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. STILL WE HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/STORMS FOR ALL AREAS...AND CHANCE FOR THE MTNS.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 30/12Z-01/12Z...GENERALLY VFR CONDS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PD. UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MID
AM HOURS. THUS UNTIL 18Z FEW070 SCT080 BKN120 BKN0 WINDS FAVORING
NE-E 5-10KTS BUT VRB 15G25KTS NEAR LINGERING -SHRA. AFT 18Z SKIES
FEW-SCT 080 SCT120...AFT 21Z ISOLD TSRA SCT060 BKN120. WINDS
VRB30-40KT IN VCTY OF STORMS...OTHERWISE 100-140 5-12KT. AFT 03Z
FEW070 SCT120.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... A SLIGHT LOSS OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WORK TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WITH
ISOLATED STORMS OVER LOWLANDS AND SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL BE DOWN A BIT AND HELP
TO LOWER AFTN RH LEVELS. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-15
MPH RANGE BUT WIND GUSTS FROM STRONGER STORMS COULD EXCEED 50
MPH...AND TRAVEL GREAT DISTANCES FROM THE STORMS. BY FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND WITH A WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SET FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  73 101  75 /  10  10   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           94  67  96  68 /  10   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              96  70  99  71 /  10  10   0  10
ALAMOGORDO              95  69  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
CLOUDCROFT              74  56  76  59 /  20  20  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   95  70  98  71 /  10   0  10  10
SILVER CITY             89  64  92  65 /  20  20  30  30
DEMING                  98  69 100  71 /  10  10  10  10
LORDSBURG               98  70 100  70 /  10  10  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  74 101  75 /  10  10   0   0
DELL CITY               95  66  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            97  71 101  72 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              91  68  94  69 /   0  10   0   0
FABENS                  97  71 101  72 /   0  10   0   0
SANTA TERESA            97  72  99  73 /  10  10   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  71  99  71 /  10  10   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           96  69  99  71 /  10  10   0  10
HATCH                   97  69 100  71 /  10  10   0  10
COLUMBUS                96  70 100  71 /  10  10  10  10
OROGRANDE               95  71  98  72 /  10  10   0   0
MAYHILL                 82  58  86  60 /  20  20  10  10
MESCALERO               84  57  87  59 /  20  20  20  20
TIMBERON                82  57  85  59 /  20  20  10  10
WINSTON                 88  62  91  63 /  20  20  30  20
HILLSBORO               95  66  98  67 /  10  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               96  69  99  71 /  10   0   0  10
LAKE ROBERTS            88  60  91  61 /  30  30  30  30
HURLEY                  92  66  95  67 /  10  10  20  20
CLIFF                   96  65  98  64 /  20  20  30  30
MULE CREEK              95  66  97  65 /  20  20  30  40
FAYWOOD                 93  66  95  68 /  10  10  10  10
ANIMAS                  99  69 101  70 /  10  10  30  30
HACHITA                 99  68 101  70 /  10  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          97  67  99  67 /  10  10  20  30
CLOVERDALE              94  66  95  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14-BIRD


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