Area Forecast Discussion
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576
FXUS64 KEPZ 182143
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
243 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS... A cool night head as the region saw a cold front push
though the area Saturday. Dry and cooler air has filtered in which
will deliver the coolest temperatures of the year. Most location
will drop to the mid-30s overnight, but others will see light
freezes.
The Borderland will stay dry for the foreseeable future as storms
pass well to our north. Temperatures will warm a bit next week, but
be moderated by minor fronts to keep highs slightly warmer than
normal, but not as warm as we saw this past week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front pushed from north to south through the forecast area
earlier this morning. Tonight that push will shift more easterly and
continue to deliver cooler air from the Great Basin and Central
Plains. This dry airmass, combined with clear skies, and slackening
winds will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the 30s area-
wide. Some of the northern lowlands should drop below freezing for
the first time this season. Thus we will place the northern Tularosa
Basin and East/Central Sierra under a Freeze Warning tonight. The
rest of the region should stay in the mid- 30s. Of course area
highlands will be cooler, but they`ve already had their first
freezes of the season. Tonight`s freeze (for areas that see a
freeze) should be relatively minor and short-duration.

For most of the week ahead, our upper-level flow pattern will be
dictated by a building high pressure system anchored over the Baja.
This will keep our region under a deep and dry NW flow regime. The
results will be to warm our region above today/ Sunday`s cooler
temperatures; but to also moderate that warming, keeping it from
getting as warm as we saw this past week. This ridge to our west
will also keep the storm track WELL north of our region with Pacific
storm systems passing through the Great Basin before dropping across
the Central Rockies, into the Central and South Plains. Thus we will
keep a very dry airmass in place, as it typical for mid-fall in the
SW U.S.

We will see two more cold fronts move into our region from the NE.
One Tuesday and a second one next Saturday. Neither once appears
strong, and both lack any moisture. Thus our temps may dip, but not
below normal, and they won`t be accompanied by any precipitation, or
much cloud.

In summary, weather across the Borderland will be benign and fair
through the duration of this forecast period.

14-Bird

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. Winds will be SE to NE at 5-15KTS
with strongest winds on western mountain slopes and west of KDMN.

26-Grzywacz

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
After a weekend with cooler temperatures than recent days, an upper
ridge over the Pacific will be building into the Great Basin which
will allow temperatures to rebound back to 8 to 15 degrees above
normal by Tuesday and continue through the end of next week.
Relative humidities will generally remain in the teens through the
period with winds under 15 mph except some breezy conditions
possible Tuesday. With the lighter winds and lower mixing heights
this time of year, expect vent rates to be generally poor to fair
for most of next week.

26-Grzywacz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 38  65  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           36  62  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              34  63  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              31  59  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  45  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   34  62  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             33  63  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  33  64  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               37  65  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      42  63  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               34  62  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            42  66  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              35  62  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  39  67  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            35  64  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          35  62  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           31  62  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   33  64  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                36  64  36  72 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               35  62  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 25  52  29  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               27  55  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                25  52  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 24  62  23  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               32  63  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               28  62  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            25  64  24  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  31  63  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   26  66  26  70 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              26  65  28  67 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 32  63  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  36  67  37  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 34  65  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          35  66  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              38  67  40  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM MST Sunday for NMZ409-412.

TX...None.
&&

$$

14/26



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