Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 230920
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
320 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY SO THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL THEN BRING SEASONABLY HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS TODAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE
ABOVE AN INCH WHILE MUCAPES RANGE FROM AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SURFACE HEATING WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
ABOVE CONVECTIVE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING THE INITIATION OF A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW CAUSING ACTIVITY TO
SPREAD. EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS TODAY THAN ON WEDNESDAY
HOWEVER AS 500 MB HEIGHT RISES AND GREATER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ARE
LIKELY.

BY THURSDAY BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ESTABLISHED THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH RESULTANT CIRCULATION TRANSPORTING WARM
DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS ALOFT INTO THE CWA FROM THE EAST.
CONSEQUENTLY AIR MASS STABILIZES AND DRIES OUT MOST LOCATIONS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLING BELOW AN INCH. THE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM
AIR ALOFT...DECREASING MOISTURE AND ABSENCE OF ANY CAPE SHOULD
PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST
A WEAKENING/DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY BUT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF KEEP AIR MASS STABLE
AND THUS OUTLOOK LITTLE RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/1200Z-24/1200Z...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z. WIND SPEEDS
MOSTLY AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TODAY SO THE BORDERLAND WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL THEN BRING SEASONABLY HOT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 4 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND
ARIZONA BORDER WITH MOST LOCATIONS HAVING NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT EACH
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  77  99  77 101 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           92  74  94  75  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              95  71  97  72  99 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              96  72  98  73 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              75  51  77  52  79 /  20   0  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  70  96  71  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             85  62  89  64  91 /  40  20  10  10  20
DEMING                  95  71  97  72  99 /  20   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               95  70  96  71  98 /  30  20   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      97  76  99  76 101 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               96  68  98  68 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            99  74 101  74 103 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              89  68  91  70  93 /  10   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  98  74 100  74 102 /  10   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            96  72  98  73 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  73  96  74  98 /  10   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           94  67  96  68  98 /  10   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   95  69 100  70  99 /  20   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                93  71  97  72  97 /  20   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               97  71  99  72 101 /  10   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 82  61  84  62  87 /  20   0  10  10  10
MESCALERO               84  58  86  59  89 /  20   0  10  10  10
TIMBERON                82  57  84  58  87 /  20   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 87  63  88  64  91 /  30  20  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               90  69  92  71  94 /  20   0  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               94  70  96  71  98 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            89  58  90  58  93 /  50  30  20  10  20
HURLEY                  87  62  93  64  93 /  30  10  10  10  10
CLIFF                   94  63  95  62  98 /  40  20  10  20  20
MULE CREEK              92  59  93  59  95 /  40  30  10  10  20
FAYWOOD                 90  66  92  68  94 /  20   0  10  20   0
ANIMAS                  94  73  96  74  99 /  30  20   0   0  10
HACHITA                 94  69  95  70  98 /  30  10   0   0  10
ANTELOPE WELLS          95  72  97  73  99 /  30  10   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              89  64  91  66  93 /  30  20   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH




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