Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 252013
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
213 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
West to southwest winds will continue to bring seasonably warm
mostly dry weather to southern New Mexico and west Texas on
Thursday through early next week. A passing upper disturbance will
also produce windy conditions with a few areas of blowing dust on
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably deep upper low embedded in western trough was located
over southern California this afternoon with west to southwest
flow ahead of it sustaining inflow of seasonably warm dry air
mass. The upper low will move eastward into Arizona tonight and
lift to the northeast into northern New Mexico/southern Colorado
on Thursday. Associated dynamics and downslope flow in advance of
system will induce lee cyclogenesis over southeast Colorado with
trailing trough extending southward through eastern New Mexico.
This pattern evolution will result in another windy day across
most of the cwa on Thursday as dry lapse rates/mixing heights will
extend to around 600 mb. At moment winds appear to be just below
advisory criteria.

After trough passage Thursday night a subsiding northwest flow
aloft on Friday followed by west to southwest winds
Saturday...Sunday and Monday will maintain dry weather with near
normal seasonably warm temperatures.

Longer range models indicate an upper low in the southerly branch
may move across arizona and into New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday
bringing slight chances of rain to the Gila region Tuesday with
isolated storms across much of the cwa on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z-27/00Z.
P6SM SKC-FEW250 thru pd. There will be areas of 1-3SM BLDU at
KDMN...KLRU and KELP thru 02Z. West to SW winds of 15-25G35KTS thru
03Z and increasing again after 17Z to 27020G30KTS. Expect stronger
winds lingering longer on eastern mountain slopes through about 09Z.
Between 03Z-17Z winds will be around 10KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper low will be moving out of Arizona and across Northern New
Mexico over the next couple of days. This will lower temperatures 5
to 10 degrees. Winds will shift more to the west but remain breezy
with relative humidities falling into the single digits for the
lowlands. Winds will be marginal Thursday to meet critical
conditions so no fire weather headlines are in effect. Winds will
decrease well below critical speeds by Friday and continue through
the weekend. Temperatures will be rebounding back to near normal by
Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 64  85  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           62  85  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              55  79  49  81 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              59  82  51  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              43  57  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   53  77  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             45  71  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  51  77  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               48  78  45  81 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      63  83  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               56  85  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            62  88  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              59  79  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  61  86  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            59  82  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          62  80  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           53  79  46  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   52  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                56  82  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               59  81  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 49  67  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               46  68  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                44  67  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 40  69  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               50  74  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               52  78  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            37  70  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  44  72  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   41  75  39  80 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              36  73  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 46  74  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  50  80  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 52  81  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          52  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NMZ404>406.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

05 Rogash/26 Grzywacz



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