Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272040
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
240 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The hot and sometimes windy weather of the past few days will
come to an end as a cold front sweeps across the region Sunday.
While temperatures will only cool to a few degrees below normal
for the next several days, low level moisture will be flowing in
from the southeast setting the stage for showers and thunderstorms
in the days ahead. While Sunday should remain mainly dry with
gusty west slope winds, the rain chances will increase Monday and
continue into the later part of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The holiday weekend has gotten off to a warm and breezy start as
deep westerly flow across the region has resulted in dry
conditions through the column. However the dry nature of our
airmass will be changing in the days to come (and it should be a
few degrees cooler as well). Currently shortwave energy crossing
central Colorado will continue to track southeast and will help
give a stalled frontal boundary over the Texas Panhandle the push
it needs to head our direction. The front will cross the
Borderland from east to west during the day Sunday bringing some
cooling and gusty winds to west slopes of area mountains.

The air mass behind the front appears to be mostly continental in
nature, thus only a limited push of moisture will initially occur
behind the front Sunday. However by Sunday night and Monday
models show stronger 850mb flow crossing the region from the
southeast. This will tap into better moisture and send surface
dewpoints into the 50`s up the Rio Grande and as far west as the
Continental Divide before mixing out a bit Monday afternoon. A
similar situation follows for Monday night and Tuesday with
higher dewpoints making it all the way across the CWA. The
moisture will combine with a decent amount of instability both
Monday and Tuesday to help generate thunderstorms across much of
the region. Shear profiles look to be rather unimpressive as we
will actually be under the influence of weak ridging aloft, thus
limiting any widespread severe storm threat. None the less, some
small hail and localized heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.

By Wednesday an approaching upper trough will slowly turn the
upper flow more southwesterly and begin to nudge the moisture
east. While showers and storms will again be possible area wide
Wednesday, the chances for wetting storms will be best east of
the divide. The same scenario will shape up Thursday with storms
favoring locations east of the Rio Grande this time while the
risk for dry lightning remains over the Gila. Finally by Friday
the last of the moisture will get scoured out as breezy and warmer
conditions return just in time for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/00Z-29/00Z...
P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period. Winds will start out W to NW around
15-20 KTS (gusts 25-30 KTS) with light dust. Winds will start to
decrease area wide around 02Z. A backdoor cold front will push into
parts of Otero and Hudspeth Counties just before 12Z Sunday morning,
wind will become NE to E with stronger gusts possible west of area
mountain ranges. Behind the front winds will be AOB 12KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will decrease across all fire weather zones this evening after
another hot and dry day. Tomorrow a backdoor cold front accompanied
by a wind shift to the southeast will start to usher in low level
moisture across the region. This will lift relative humidities
and increase chances for showers and thunderstorms area wide
starting Sunday. Wetting rain chances will continue into mid week
next week. Late next week, the low level moisture will begin to
move east. As this happens areas east of the Rio will continue to
have a slight chance for rain showers and thunderstorms through.
Any lingering storms over the Gila Wilderness could produce dry
lighting.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  89  69  87 /   0   0   0  20
Sierra Blanca           64  84  65  83 /   0   0  10  40
Las Cruces              58  90  62  87 /   0   0   0  20
Alamogordo              53  84  58  85 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              38  63  41  61 /   0   0   0  40
Truth or Consequences   58  86  58  85 /   0   0   0  20
Silver City             51  84  55  84 /   0   0   0  30
Deming                  56  89  61  88 /   0   0   0  20
Lordsburg               53  90  63  89 /   0   0   0  20
West El Paso Metro      65  87  67  85 /   0   0   0  20
Dell City               55  86  55  87 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            65  89  68  88 /   0   0   0  30
Loma Linda              59  83  61  81 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                  64  89  66  87 /   0   0   0  20
Santa Teresa            61  89  65  86 /   0   0   0  20
White Sands HQ          63  87  67  85 /   0   0   0  20
Jornada Range           51  88  57  87 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   53  91  56  89 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                58  90  65  88 /   0   0   0  30
Orogrande               61  85  65  86 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 41  70  44  70 /   0   0   0  40
Mescalero               42  74  44  73 /   0   0   0  40
Timberon                40  71  42  71 /   0   0   0  30
Winston                 40  78  41  74 /   0   0   0  30
Hillsboro               50  85  51  83 /   0   0   0  30
Spaceport               50  88  51  87 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts            38  84  40  83 /   0   0  10  30
Hurley                  45  83  48  83 /   0   0   0  20
Cliff                   47  90  50  88 /   0   0   0  20
Mule Creek              52  89  55  84 /   0   0   0  20
Faywood                 51  86  52  84 /   0   0   0  20
Animas                  56  93  60  92 /   0   0   0  20
Hachita                 55  91  61  90 /   0   0   0  30
Antelope Wells          55  94  59  90 /   0   0   0  30
Cloverdale              56  90  57  89 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27-Laney/28-Pazos


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