Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 210936
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
336 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EAST AS A WESTERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. DECENT MOISTURE MOISTURE REMAINS
TO FUEL MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT GENERALLY EAST OF DEMING.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF
OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES TODAY.  A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PHASE IN WITH
THE OPEN TROUGH TO HELP GENERATE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH ABUNDANT SURFACE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...MORE LIKELY FOR
PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
MOISTURE ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WILL OCCUR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND MOVE OVER THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SKIES
TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PATTERN TO OCCUR OVER THE AREA.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST...THOUGH THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT A
POSSIBLE MODEST SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY
AS THIS IS MORE LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THE PREVAILING WEST FLOW IN
PLACE.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK IS LESS CLEAR. LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE
ON WEATHER SCENARIOS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE GFS
MODEL KEEPING A DRY WEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA AND THE ECMWF
MODEL INDICATING ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MIGHT DROP DOWN INTO THE
AREA BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION AND KEEP THE MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF NEXT WEEK`S OUTLOOK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 21/12Z - 22/12Z...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. AREAS OF
SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY EAST OF KDMN THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. VSBY WILL BE PERIODICALLY REDUCED TO LESS THAN 3SM IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THE CLOUD DECK WILL RANGE BETWEEN 5000 TO
6000 FEET AGL. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GUSTS IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE DAY AND
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AND HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN SOME STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE
MORNINGS WITH POOR VENTILATION RATES POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK AND INTO
NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  55  75  54  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           70  52  72  51  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
LAS CRUCES              71  52  71  51  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              71  51  71  49  77 /  30  30  20  10   0
CLOUDCROFT              57  39  58  37  63 /  40  40  30  10   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   71  53  71  52  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
SILVER CITY             66  48  68  48  71 /  20  20  10   0   0
DEMING                  72  51  72  48  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  52  74  50  79 /  20  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  56  74  55  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
DELL CITY               72  48  73  45  76 /  50  30  30  10   0
FORT HANCOCK            74  55  77  54  80 /  40  30  30  10   0
LOMA LINDA              67  51  68  52  73 /  30  30  30  10   0
FABENS                  75  52  77  50  80 /  30  30  20  10   0
SANTA TERESA            72  53  72  53  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  55  70  54  76 /  30  30  20   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           71  45  70  44  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
HATCH                   71  48  70  48  78 /  30  30  20   0   0
COLUMBUS                72  55  73  52  79 /  30  30  20   0   0
OROGRANDE               72  54  72  53  76 /  30  30  20  10   0
MAYHILL                 61  44  64  44  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
MESCALERO               62  40  63  38  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
TIMBERON                61  41  63  40  68 /  40  40  30  10   0
WINSTON                 65  45  67  44  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
HILLSBORO               67  50  68  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
SPACEPORT               71  47  70  45  77 /  30  30  20   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  45  68  44  74 /  30  30  20   0   0
HURLEY                  68  50  70  49  73 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLIFF                   70  46  72  44  77 /  20  20  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              69  40  71  38  74 /  20  20  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 67  50  69  49  73 /  30  30  20   0   0
ANIMAS                  73  51  76  50  81 /  20  20   0   0   0
HACHITA                 72  49  74  49  80 /  20  20  10   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          76  49  76  47  82 /  20  20  10   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  50  75  49  80 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN




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