Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 290923
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
323 AM MDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system to the east will bring breezy to windy
conditions and cool temperatures today along with isolated
showers on the lowlands and a few snow showers over the higher
mountains. West to southwest winds will result in warmer dry
weather Thursday and Friday. However a deep low pressure system
with a cold front will move slowly across the region generating
windy conditions with blowing dust on Friday followed by cooler
temperatures and a few rain and mountain snows showers Saturday
and Sunday. Westerly winds will produce warmer dry weather Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low pressure system which brought winds...rain and
mountain snow yesterday was moving slowly east into the Texas
panhandle early this morning with associated surface low slightly
to its east. Gradients from these features will remain rather
strong across the CWA and this will result in breezy to windy
conditions this morning with winds diminishing in the afternoon.
In addition cyclonic flow will support inflow of cooler canadian
air from the north so todays high temperatures will be around 10
degrees below normal. Finally a weak short wave will move
southward into southern New Mexico and west Texas today providing
dynamic lift. Due to the cold air aloft air mass will be weakly
unstable do expect mainly isolated lowland rains and high
mountains snows with a few lighting strikes also possible. Given
the lack of moisture rain and snow amounts will be mostly light.

Westerly flow under passing short wave ridge aloft will bring
warmer dry weather on Thursday with west to southwest winds
sustaining above normal temperatures and dry weather again Friday.
However a slow moving upper low will drift eastward across
northern Arizona into New Mexico Friday through early Sunday with
associated surface low deepening over eastern New Mexico. Low and
mid level gradients will therefore tighten with mid level 70 kt
speed max extending into thew CWA. Consequently it will become
quite windy Friday with blowing dust also likely.

An attendant cold front will also move across the CWA Friday night
causing Saturday and Sunday high temperatures to fall to around 5
degrees below normal. Moisture inflow ahead of the storm will be
marginal due to continental trajectories but dynamic forcing plus
cold air aloft may prove sufficient for a few lowland rain
showers and high mountain snows this weekend.

The low/trough will be east of the Rockies by late Sunday with
westerly winds behind it bringing a return to warmer dry weather.
However passing upper disturbances plus persistent surface
troughing to the east may generate breezy to windy conditions
both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 29/12z-30/12z.
Widespread ceilings between 5000 and 10,000 with a few areas of
mvfr or ifr ceilings and visibility in rain and mountain snow
showers with very isolated thunderstorms. Surface winds gusting
from 30 to 40 kt through 18z with winds slowly diminishing in the
afternoon. Skies also clearing after 06z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A low pressure system to the east will bring breezy to windy
conditions and cool below normal temperatures today along with
isolated showers in the lowlands and a few snow showers over the
higher mountains. Winds will gust from 30 to 40 mph this morning
before slowly diminishing in the afternoon. West to southwest
winds will result in warmer dry weather Thursday and Friday.
However a deep low pressure system with a cold front will move
slowly across the region generating windy conditions with blowing
dust on Friday followed by cooler below normal temperatures and a
few rain and mountain snows showers Saturday and Sunday. Winds on
Friday may gust around 50 mph resulting in Red Flag conditions
most locations. Westerly winds will produce warmer dry weather
next Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 66  45  81  57 /  10  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca           64  42  77  54 /  10   0   0   0
Las Cruces              62  38  78  51 /  10  10   0   0
Alamogordo              59  39  75  53 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  27  55  40 /  30  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences   63  40  79  53 /  10  20   0   0
Silver City             58  37  72  47 /  20  10   0   0
Deming                  65  38  80  50 /  10  10   0   0
Lordsburg               63  36  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      64  45  80  59 /  10  10   0   0
Dell City               63  35  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            67  43  82  54 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              58  43  73  55 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                  66  41  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
Santa Teresa            64  41  80  54 /  10  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          61  45  78  56 /  10  10   0   0
Jornada Range           62  33  78  47 /  10  10   0   0
Hatch                   62  39  80  49 /  10  20   0   0
Columbus                67  42  82  55 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande               61  43  79  54 /  10  10   0   0
Mayhill                 48  30  68  45 /  30  10   0   0
Mescalero               47  30  65  43 /  30  10   0   0
Timberon                46  28  62  41 /  30  10   0   0
Winston                 58  26  73  40 /  20  20   0   0
Hillsboro               61  36  78  48 /  20  20   0   0
Spaceport               61  37  78  49 /  10  20   0   0
Lake Roberts            58  22  71  34 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                  60  32  74  45 /  10  10   0   0
Cliff                   65  29  78  41 /  20   0   0   0
Mule Creek              62  34  74  45 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                 61  38  76  49 /  10  10   0   0
Animas                  63  37  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 64  36  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          65  39  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              62  40  76  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Wind Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for TXZ419.

&&

$$

05 Rogash



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