Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042100
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
200 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER
SOME AREAS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HIGH
PRESSURE AND EAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT COOL WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING A
SLOW WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER SITUATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS ENTERING WESTERN NEW MEXICO WITH MODELS SHOWING
PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL PVA AHEAD OF IT OVER THE CWA. WEAK PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH
LOW LEVEL AND UPPER FORCING MECHANISMS PROVIDING RATHER DEEP
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATED MARGINAL/WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH CAPES GENERALLY AROUND 250 J/KG. THUS EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT.
WET BULB ZERO LEVELS WERE VERY LOW AND LESS THAN 5000 FEET AGL
SUGGESTING ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AS 0 TO 6 KM
WIND SHEAR WAS IN EXCESS OF 60 KT. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS INITIALLY
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WHEN DYNAMIC COOLING ALOFT OVER LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 7000 FEET BY 00 UTC.
BECAUSE OF THIS EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MEANWHILE A STRONG CANADIAN FRONT WAS PUSHING INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE FURTHER TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 02 UTC TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS
BEHIND IT ADVECTING MUCH COOLER AIR. STRONG LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL ALSO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG
WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. BY EARLY
THURSDAY THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EAST OF THE CWA WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND ENDING
PRECIP THREAT. HOWEVER DEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN
THURSDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EAST ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE SO DO NOT
EXPECT RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER LACK OF STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF
GRADUAL TEMPERATURE RISES. FORMATION OF LEE TROUGH TO THE EAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED WESTERLY WINDS WILL FINALLY FORCE
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 05/00Z-06/00Z...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN NM WITH CLOSED LOW JUST NOW
MOVING INTO THE NM BOOTHEEL. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO MID-LEVEL
COLD POOL. ISOLATED THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNAL AND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. A
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AROUND SUNSET...THEN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BETWEEN 02-04Z.  NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PUSH...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS CONTINUING IN
FAVORED WEST-FACING SLOPE LOCATIONS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
MAINLY BE AN ISSUE IN FAR EASTERN OTERO COUNTY AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...BUT MVFR CIGS MAY SNEAK INTO ELP IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NEW MEXICO BOOTHEEL WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON EVENING...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO INCREASE UNTIL SUNSET. COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY...AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY RUN AROUND
8500 FEET THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY THIS
EVENING...DROPPING SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 6000 FEET...BUT MOISTURE
WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES IN. COLDER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THURSDAY...WITH ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF WARMING ON FRIDAY...AND
FINALLY NEAR-NORMAL TEMPS BY SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS AND SHALLOW
MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT VENT RATES OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 30  47  29  56  35 /  20   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           23  40  24  49  29 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              28  47  26  54  32 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              26  45  24  52  30 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              17  32  23  39  26 /  40   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   29  45  29  54  34 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             26  48  25  53  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  29  49  26  57  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               29  51  27  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      32  47  31  57  37 /  20   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               24  43  23  49  28 /  20   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            29  47  28  56  31 /  20   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              25  42  25  50  31 /  20   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  28  44  26  57  32 /  10   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            29  46  27  55  34 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          29  47  28  53  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           24  48  23  54  27 /  20   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   28  49  26  56  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                31  48  30  54  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               27  46  27  52  32 /  20   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 15  32  21  41  25 /  40   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               16  36  23  45  26 /  40   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                19  37  23  44  28 /  30   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 25  42  24  49  28 /  10   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               29  46  27  52  32 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               26  48  25  56  30 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            23  46  21  53  26 /  10   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  25  47  24  53  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   27  55  24  61  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              21  54  20  59  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 28  46  26  51  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  30  53  27  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 27  51  25  56  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          29  55  26  59  30 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              31  53  29  57  33 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
     NMZ411.

TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MST THURSDAY FOR
     TXZ418-420.

&&

$$

05 ROGASH/25 HARDIMAN



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