Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 230017
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
617 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

AN ACTIVE 24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS IOWA BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. IN BETWEEN THIS PIVOTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST IS A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS STRONG SURFACE
GRADIENT...DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY
OVERNIGHT...SO AS SNOWFALL BEGINS TO DEVELOP...COULD SEE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL...AND DECIDED TO
INCLUDE THIS IN THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ROUGHLY THE WESTERN
THIRD/HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.

OTHERWISE...DID NOT ALTER OVERALL SNOW TOTALS SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH GENERALLY UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR EXTREME NORTH...AND AROUND ONE INCH OR SO POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6...AND ONE TO TWO INCHES IN BETWEEN. WITH
LATEST SREF PLUMES INDICATING ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AT
GRAND ISLAND...THIS SEEMED PRETTY REASONABLE...CONSIDERING THE
MAJORITY OF SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATING SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIP...AND MODEL SOUNDING ARE INDICATING IT SHOULD ALL FALL AS
SNOW ONCE THE SURFACE TEMPS DROP OFF THIS EVENING. THAT
SAID...DID PUSH BACK TIMING OF PRECIP ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO TO
REFLECT TRENDS IN LATEST MODEL DATA.

WHILE THIS IS STILL A RELATIVELY MINOR SNOWFALL EVENT...WITH THE
STRONG WINDS AND SOME BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...THIS
STORM SYSTEM COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...SO OPTED TO EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURE
WISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
THERE IS ONLY A 5 DEGREE C DROP IN TEMPS BEHIND THE SECONDARY PUSH
OF COLD AIR OVERNIGHT...WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
BITTERLY COLD OVERNIGHT OR ON TUESDAY...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 20S
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

PATTERN: THE MEAN LONGWAVE FLOW OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY TROF OVER THE CNTRL/WRN USA AND A RIDGE OVER THE E
PAC N TO AK. THIS FAVORS INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR INVADING AS WE
CLOSE OUT THE YEAR.

ALOFT: THE PRIMARILY TROF AXIS WILL BE E OF THE REGION WED WITH
RISING HEIGHTS AND N-NNW FLOW. THE DEAMPLIFYING UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL
CROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT. THE FLOW WILL BACK TO WSW THU AS THE
TROF BETWEEN AK/HI MOVES ONSHORE. THIS +TILT TROF WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS E WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU HERE
CHRISTMAS NIGHT. A BROAD TROF WILL BE LEFT IN ITS WAKE FRI-MON
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF CRESTING THE RIDGE AND DROPPING INTO
THE WRN USA NEXT WEEKEND.

SURFACE: WRN USA HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED AS IT SLIDES SE INTO TX. LOW PRES WILL PROGRESS E ACROSS SRN
CANADA IN THE MEANTIME...INDUCING WARM FRONTOGENESIS. THIS FRONT
WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CANADIAN COLD FRONT
LATE CHRISTMAS DAY. A LEE-SIDE LOW WILL FORM ALONG TRACK NE ALONG
THE FRONT CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS CAME IN AGREEING WITH THE
PAST TWO RUNS OF THE NAM/EC/GEM AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS
NOW IN THE PACK OF TIGHT CLUSTERING WITH THE LOW OVER WRN KS AT 6
PM. THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION FRI WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRES
SETTLING OVER THE PLAINS FRI-SAT. SUN-MON MORE UNCERTAINTY...BUT
RETURN FLOW AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS PROBABLE.

THE DAILY DETAILS...

TUE NIGHT: LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS IN THERMAL TROF BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER EARLY EVE E
OF HWY 281.

WED: COLD SECTOR TO START...BUT THE THERMAL TROF SHIFTS E WITH WAA
DEVELOPING. MULTI-MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
WITH A CLEARING TREND FROM THE W...BUT THE NAM IS THE MOST
PESSIMISTIC AND THE SLOWEST. GIVEN ITS SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE WITH LOW
CLOUDS THE LAST 2 WKS I AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE IT. THE FCST WAS
TRENDED MUCH CLOUDIER...ESPECIALLY E OF HWY 281.

CHRISTMAS DAY: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. IT IS LOOKING MILD WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 40S.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT: COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE ERN USA WILL SWEEP AWAY THE GOOD MOISTURE. SO THE
LOW THAT TRACKS ACROSS KS WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. HOWEVER...A
COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A BAND OF
DEFORMATION SNOW TO FORM IN THE COLD SECTOR OVER THE
PANHANDLE/SANDHILLS. THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS SNOW COULD CLIP THE
NRN/WRN FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA INTO FRI MORNING. VERY LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUM IS EXPECTED.

FRI: WINDY AND COLDER WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AS THE LOW HEADS FOR THE
GREAT LAKES.

SAT: POSSIBLY SOME CLOUDS TO START BUT IT LOOKS LIKE CLEARING. TEMPS
RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL. LIGHT WIND WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.

SUN: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING THRU.

MON: PROBABLY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASING CLOUDS. AGAIN
MOISTURE STARVED. MODEL QPFS ARE VERY LIGHT AND POORLY ORGANIZED. SO
"IF" ANY SNOW FALLS IT WOULD BE MINOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL CENTER AROUND DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...PRIMARILY AFTER 3 AM INTO TUESDAY AS
WIND DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. EXPECT CEILING
HEIGHTS TO LOWER AS SNOW MOVES IN. IN ADDITION...THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW AND
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN BLOWING SNOW. IT IS A HARD CALL ON HOW
LOW TO GO WITH VISIBILITY...BUT EXPECT AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITY AT
TIMES AND POSSIBLY PERIODS OF IFR. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IFR
THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WHEN SNOWING. OVERALL AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW AT ONLY 1 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE ENTIRE EVENT
RUNNING FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...HALBLAUB
AVIATION...WESELY


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