Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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523
FXUS63 KICT 222010
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
310 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Trough is positioned over Manitoba into the Northern Plains.
Current cold frontal boundary stemming from this system is across
eastern Iowa to along the Kansas and Nebraska borders then into
southwest Kansas. Scattered storm initiation remains possible for
the northern half of Kansas this evening and tonight. Excessive
heat headline is in effect until 8PM CDT with temperatures over
100 degrees and heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees. Forecast
challenges are the chances and timing for precipitation for the
next couple of days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Activity level will increase given the change in overall flow
pattern which is going to bring a relief to the heat and chances for
thunderstorms. Trough over Northern Plains will have southeast movement
to the Great Lakes by Sunday afternoon. A cold front has begun
its push southward this afternoon, but storm initiation will need
to break the cap which model soundings do not show until around 0z
for central Kansas. Inverted v model soundings clearly show that
winds would be the main threat if the high based storms get a
little rowdy. This boundary is going to move through late tonight
and be off to the south by Sunday afternoon; however, the system
stays over the Midwest the does prompt the question what will
happen with a stall or regression of the boundary.

Changes to the forecast are primarily only in the precipitation field
with the latest guidance on timing and coverage. Confidence is
not high in the precipitation chances and timing for south central
Kansas. Relatively cooler air from this system will bring a
decrease in temperatures to roughly 10 degrees below the highs for
today to end the weekend into the first part of the week!
Unfortunately southeast Kansas will still have heat indices of 100
to 105 degrees on Sunday therefore the Excessive Heat Warning was
extended across that area. The location of the boundary really
could swing the dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

After a couple days off from the heat, there is going to be a
return mid week as highs are once again forecast to reach around
the century mark. A quick system coming off of the Rockies is
going to hug the U.S. and Canadian border through the week. As
this system moves east and southeast, there will be waves sent
through at the end of week to bring about the next chances of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  A slowly sagging
cold front currently located across central Ks will begin to drop
south this evening and overnight with a wind shift to the northeast.

As this front moves south, expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop by around 00z. So will go with a VCTS for
the KRSL and KSLN tafs for the 00-60z time frame.  Not sure how far
south the convection will get late tonight, as the convection will
have very slow movement to the SE. So will hold off on adding VCTS
for KHUT and KGBD.

Frontal boundary will continue to sag south into southern KS tonight
into early Sun. Latest RAP data does hint at some post frontal MVFR
clouds for early Sun, but will not bite on this mention just yet.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  96  72  95 /  20  30  20  20
Hutchinson      73  94  70  95 /  20  20  10  20
Newton          73  93  70  94 /  30  30  10  20
ElDorado        73  94  70  93 /  20  30  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   75  96  72  95 /  20  30  30  20
Russell         71  92  69  96 /  40  20   0  10
Great Bend      71  93  69  96 /  30  20  10  10
Salina          73  95  71  97 /  50  20   0  10
McPherson       73  94  70  95 /  30  20  10  20
Coffeyville     75  96  72  94 /  20  30  20  20
Chanute         74  93  71  93 /  20  30  20  10
Iola            73  93  70  93 /  30  30  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    75  95  71  94 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ095-096-
098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...BDK



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