Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261139
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
539 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
EARLY THIS MORNING. A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND H75 HAS
RESULTED IN ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND WHILE
T/TD SPREADS REMAINED FAIRLY LARGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LARGE-
SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE MAY SEE A FEW MORNING
SPRINKLES...BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN MAY BE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITHIN A DEEPLY MIXED/SUBSIDENT REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER-
LIKE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS WITH SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40S/AROUND 50.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE.

THANKSGIVING DAY-SATURDAY...RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND
A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN RISING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
SEASONABLY MILD HIGHS AROUND 50 ARE EXPECTED ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 60S ON FRI AND SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

ANOTHER SURGE OF CANADIAN AIR IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 30S/40S ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND THE LOW
TO MID 60S NEAR THE OK STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RAPIDLY MODIFY BY TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS APPROACHING THE OZARK REGION WILL
CONTINUE THE SPREAD HIGH AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT CEILING LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE MVFR LEVELS. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE AND WILL GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH FOR MOST SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SPEEDS WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  24  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      47  22  49  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  23  46  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  25  49  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  24  48  35 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         45  20  50  29 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      46  22  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          45  22  48  32 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  22  47  32 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  25  48  34 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         47  23  46  31 /  10   0   0   0
IOLA            45  23  45  30 /  10   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  22  47  31 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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