Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 072344
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
644 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO CHANCES FOR BR...AND
POSSIBLY FG FROM KGAG/KWWR SOUTH TO KSPS/KLAW. FURTHER
EAST...PREVAILING -RA EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
COMBINATION OF RA AND BR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS...WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR OVERNIGHT AS CIGS LOWER.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST BY 16Z
TO 18Z WED.

AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AT MIDAFTERNOON...A STALLED FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
TO NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY TO VERNON TEXAS. RAIN-COOLED AIR NORTH OF
THE FRONT HAS HELD TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S...FAR BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR WICHITA FALLS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY ENHANCE
RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF NORTH TEXAS. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...AND THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...THIS FORECAST
INCLUDES AN UPDATE TO THE GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE OF OUR FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. SEVERAL COUNTIES IN THE WEST AND NORTH HAVE BEEN
REMOVED...AND THE THREE REMAINING SOUTHEAST COUNTIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED. AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE DURATION OF
THE WATCH...BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
REMOVED EARLY...EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST...BRINGING LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AFTER
THURSDAY...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND SHOULD SHUT OFF THE RAIN FOR A WHILE. IT WILL ALSO
HAVE THE EFFECT OF RAISING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SUBSTANTIALLY...AND WITH THE WET GROUND...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE HIGH. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND
POSSIBLY EXCEED THEM IN A FEW PLACES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  80  71  88 / 100  50  40  20
HOBART OK         64  83  70  89 /  70  30  20  20
WICHITA FALLS TX  68  85  73  91 / 100  50  20  10
GAGE OK           61  81  68  87 /  40  20  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     64  78  68  87 /  90  50  40  50
DURANT OK         71  88  73  90 /  90  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ008-012-013-
     017>020-022>032-035>048-050>052.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

11/84


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