Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 260810
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
310 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Primary forecast focus is on hot temperatures today and Thursday,
then showers and thunderstorms to close out the week into the
weekend.

This morning, quiet, but still hot and humid. Even at 2 AM, dew
points remain in the low 70s across most of Oklahoma and north
Texas. These dew points will stick around, increasing and expanding
north and northwestward through the day as warm, moist, southerly
flow continues to advect northward ahead of the approaching surface
trough to the northwest. In response, it will continue to hot and
humid, with maximum heat index values across central and eastern
Oklahoma between 105 and approaching 110. Stay safe and stay cool
out there.

Additionally, one or two diurnally driven showers may develop across
portions of north Texas into far southern Oklahoma.

Through the evening and overnight, the chance for showers/thunder
will increase across northwestern Oklahoma as the frontal boundary
begins to push into the region. Chances will continue through
sunrise, Thursday, as the front continues to slowly move
south/southeast into Oklahoma. Given the upper level dynamics, the
parent 500mb shortwave displaced over the lower Missouri Valley by
morning, and exiting east/southeast across the Ohio Valley through
the day; agree with the slower surface boundary movement of the
latest ECMWF.

In response to this slower frontal evolution, two things will
happen. First, rain chances will linger across the central and
northern half of the state through the day. Second, and more
importantly, this will allow for greater low level moisture
advection and higher heat index values farther north, through the
afternoon. Therefore, with heat index values now forecast reaching
105 to 108 as far north as the OKC metro and Stillwater, expanded
the Heat Advisory for Thursday to encompass these areas. We`re not
out of the furnace, yet.

Expect the effective front to push to the Red River by late
Thursday/early Friday morning, with low chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms continuing. Through Friday, low
precipitation chances will persist, focused loosely along the more
diffuse frontal boundary, which will linger across north
Texas/southern Oklahoma to the Panhandles, as the short wave
continues to push towards the Atlantic and the 500mb ridge axis
builds along the Rockies.

Precipitation chances will persist into the weekend, a rather tricky
forecast, as continued low level theta-E advection will build across
the Panhandles and western Oklahoma on the backside of an expansive
surface ridge and developing surface trough along the Front Range
southward along the Llano Estacado. This pattern will keep a rather
focused area of isentropic ascent for development over the
Panhandles and western Oklahoma into western north Texas, persisting
into early next week, as the 500mb ridge builds and stands pat over
the entire western half of the U.S.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  98  78  98  74 /   0  10  20  40
Hobart OK         99  78  99  74 /   0  20  20  40
Wichita Falls TX 100  79 101  76 /  10   0   0  10
Gage OK          100  76  90  69 /  20  40  40  40
Ponca City OK    101  78  93  72 /   0  30  30  30
Durant OK         96  78  99  76 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ013-
     019-020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ007-008-012-018.

TX...None.
&&

$$

09/04



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