Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 012359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
659 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF PCPN CONTINUES ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
SOUTHEAST OH...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH LATER OVERNIGHT TAKING MOST PCPN EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND THE ADVISORY FOR
POCAHONTAS COUNTY WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN SITES
INCLUDING CKB TO THE NORTH WHILE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND AREAS OF MOSTLY RAIN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT BKW AND EKN...BUT EKN COULD SEE A
REDUCTION IN CEILINGS TO IFR AFTER 02Z DUE TO INCOMING PCPN.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS LATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK. THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY
REMAIN BELOW 3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOW WIDESPREAD IFR AT MOST SITES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.