Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 311014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
514 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA
PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD
AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOWS CENTER.

MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW








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