Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 312328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
728 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY GRIDS...AS CLOUD COVER/CU DISSIPATING
QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE TO SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...SAVE FOR
THE N MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF SE OH WHERE MORE OF A SCATTERED
VARIETY IS IN THE CARDS. ACTIVITY WANES WITH SUNSET...WITH CU
FIELD TO FOLLOW. THIS SETS UP A MUGGY NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT
FLOW...A RIVER VALLEY FOG NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME...WITH BEST SHOT AT SEEING A
POPCORN SHRA/TSRA BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SE OH. TEMPS LOOK
TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD 90 IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER OHIO.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SUMMER LIKE WEATHER PATTERN. WITH NO
REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS WILL KEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION
SUPRESSED WITH THE ONLY REAL CHANCE BEING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY. WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SUMMERTIME WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LABOR DAY. STILL
DON/T SEE ANY TYPE OF FOCUSING MECHANISM AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUED WITH THE WARMER SIZE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY GROUND.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE PATTERN COULD BE CHANGING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 02Z TUESDAY...CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING GENERALLY AFTER
04Z...DISSIPATING AFTER 13Z...FOR A RETURN OF MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS.

ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN...AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WV AND VA...CREATING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEPTH OF FOG TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM
FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING EARLY MORNINGS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...FB
AVIATION...SL


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