Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 240651
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
251 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates through early next week with dry
conditions and above normal temperatures. Cold front Wednesday
night/Thursday. Secondary cold front early weekend time frame.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Sunday...

And the beat goes on with high pressure at the surface and aloft
in firm control. With drier air in place, dense river valley
fog not as widespread this morning. After morning fog, wall to
wall sunshine is expected. With another day of sunshine, drier
air and good mixing, have increased high temperatures a degree
or two this afternoon. Highs will likely reach 90 degrees in
more areas this afternoon than yesterday. Under clear skies and
with very light winds at best Sunday tonight, some more river
valley fog can be expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

No changes to the synoptic setup through the middle of next
week. Upper ridging over the middle Ohio Valley into the
northeast drives the mainly clear conditions with above normal
temperatures. Maria will continue its slow trek northward off
the Outer Banks of North Carolina, potentially slinging high
level clouds into the mountains. No significant POPs expected in
the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM Sunday...

Cold front pushes into the area in response to an upper level
trough digging into the northern Great Lakes. Runs of the long
term models returns lower POPs upon passage, with a mainly dry
frontal passage scenario at this point in the forecast. A
secondary closed low aloft digs southeastward into the lakes
and reinforces the cooler airmass for the weekend with another
cold front and resultant 850mb temperatures down in the lower
single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z Sunday thru 06Z Monday...
As of 120 AM Sunday...

Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through 05Z.
Persistence forecast once again with dense river valley fog
overnight at most terminals except KBKW. Expect KEKN to drop
first, generally in the 06-07Z time frame, with the remaining
terminals holding off until closer to 09Z.

Fog to dissipate in the 13 to 14Z timeframe for a return to VFR
conditions amid just some passing cirrus clouds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium on timing onset of dense fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog timing may vary from forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/24/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
VLIFR in valley fog each morning through Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV



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