Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 290339
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1038 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SLIPS SLOWLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...AND
WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.
DRIER...COLDER AIR SLOWLY BUILDS IN DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
FRONT SLIPPED THROUGH BKW JUST BEFORE 7 PM.  ADDED DRIZZLE AND FOG
TO THE FCST OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.

PREV DISCN...
A COLD FRONT IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR ECHOES SHOW HEAVIEST RAIN SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KHTS TO
KCKB. RAIN WILL SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE
SEASONABLY COOL AIR TO THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...WITH BRINGING A MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THAN OTHER
MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH SHOW A MUCH DRIER SOLUN.
BASED ON HPC PREFERENCES...TRENDED THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE
12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF SOLUNS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...AND GRADUAL DRYING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME -SN IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
EVENTUALLY DRY OUT DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCH
COOLER...AND DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON EXPECTATION OF -8
TO -10 850MB TEMP AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING POPS. HAVE
POPS MAXING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SLOWED DOWN OVERALL
PROGRESSION JUST A LITTLE BASED MAINLY ON THE GFS. RECENTLY THE
ECMWF HAD BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
MAINTAINED LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS NOT USED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE AREA FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN IFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT.  CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY FROM THE NW...WITH PKB UP TO MVFR TO START THE TAF.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE FURTHER THERE OVERNIGHT BUT
ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF IFR FOG ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND...MAINLY E OF THE
OHIO RIVER.  THAT AND SOME DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY ALSO RESULT IN MORE
WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS...ALSO MAINLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER.

THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BRING MORE PRONOUNCED IMPROVEMENT ON MON
FROM NW TO SE...WITH THE MOUNTAINS MAINTAINING THE WORST FLYING
CONDITIONS...NIT GETTING BETTER THAN MVFR THROUGH 00Z TUE.

LIGHT N SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO N ON MON AS THE FRONT ALOFT MOVES SEWD THROUGH
THE AREA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR VIS/CIGS MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
PKB MAY GET DENSE FOG IF IT CLEARS THERE BEFORE DAWN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
POCKETS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS MON NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM










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