Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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491
FXUS61 KRLX 221743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SOME FROST POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF WEST VIRGINA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OVERNIGHT. A
DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH
OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP. FROST COULD
BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THAT
AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COULD NOT BE MUCH BETTER A MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND ON TAP. A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAVING BUILT IN OVER THE AREA BEHIND A NEAR
TERM COLD FRONT...SLOWLY DRIFTS E OF THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
AFTER THE CHILLY START SATURDAY MORNING...THIS ALLOWS A S TO SW
FLOW OF WARMER AIR TO BRING ABOUT MODERATING TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS AND LOWS RECOVER TO AT LEAST NORMAL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER.

REMOVED POPS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HOLD OFF ON
APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM THE WEST TIL TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY COULD INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSHOWER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON.

RAISED HIGHS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FCST H85
TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT FOR MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF...WHICH LOOKED
REASONABLE. LOWERED LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND A BIT SUNDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AND CONTINUED TO NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES.
LOW PRESSURE WILL SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ON SUNDAY AND REMAINING
TO THE NORTH AFTERWARDS. WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE
WEST...THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
ONCE THE WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL. SOME VFR CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IT DISAPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS
BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...JS/SL



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