Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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468
FXUS61 KRLX 201056
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
556 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today yields to southwest flow tonight and
Tuesday. Cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure again
through Thanksgiving. Cold front crosses Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 555 AM Monday...

Hastened clearing early this morning, with a slightly colder
start, per ongoing clearing. Otherwise forecast on track.

As of 110 AM Monday...

High pressure slides south of the area this period. It cuts off
the low level west to northwest upslope flow first thing this
morning, so any lingering snow over the higher windward terrain
will be gone by dawn, and the clouds will follow suit shortly
thereafter, save for a little morning cu.

Otherwise dry weather ensues this period, with southwest flow
developing later today, around the backside of the exiting
high. Along with sunshine, this will allow for a milder
afternoon compared with Sunday. The south to southwest low
level flow will limit radiative cooling tonight. Ridges will
level off, even rise a bit, overnight

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday, with a warmer
southwesterly flow taking hold as surface high pressure slides
off to the east, out ahead of an approaching low pressure system
and associated cold front. Models still not indicating lots of
moisture with this front, which will push east through the CWA
late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, but still looking like a
decent chance for precipitation, albeit light, across the north.
Expect precipitation to start out as light rain Tuesday night,
before transitioning to light rain and snow showers early
Wednesday morning. At this point, generally less than an inch of
accumulation is figured for the northern mountains late Tuesday
night/early Wednesday, with no accumulation expected across
lowland areas. Any precipitation will taper off by late morning
Wednesday as front moves off to the east and moisture depth
decreases.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 AM Monday...

High pressure will dominate the weather Thanksgiving day and
Friday, with dry, but cool conditions.

Focus then shifts to the weekend, when another system will
potential move across the north, possibly spreading light
precipitation back into the CWA. There is still a lot of
uncertainty in this, but looking at the possibility of rain and
snow showers again towards the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 555 AM Monday...

The last of the upslope stratocu in and near the mountains was
quickly eroding early this morning. MVFR ceilings may persist or
reform per morning cu effect during the first hour or so.
Otherwise high pressure passing south of the area will provide
VFR conditions.

Light west to southwest surface flow early this morning will
become light south to southwest today, and then light south to
southeast tonight. Moderate west to northwest flow aloft will
become light to moderate west later this morning, and then light
to moderate southwest tonight. This flow regime, coupled with
the dry air, will preclude fog formation tonight, and none of
the guidance so much as even hints at fog.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR ceilings may or may not occur
early this morning CKB, EKN, BKW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 11/20/17
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



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