Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 270904
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
504 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak east to west frontal boundary will dissolve over the area
by this evening. Several disturbances with heavy rainfall
potential Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Any morning dense fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z.

A dissipating frontal boundary remains across the northern portion
of the area through this evening. The combination of this
boundary, together with precipitable water from 1.5 to 2 inches
and diurnal heating will be enough to produce showers and storms
this afternoon and evening. Some storms could produce localized
heavy downpours capable to produce localized water problems along
their path.

High temperatures will range from around 90 degrees lowlands, to
the mid 70s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Several waves, surface and aloft, will impact the forecast area
through the end of the week. The first will already be arriving
Thursday morning riding along a warm front. Models seem to be coming
into better agreement with this now, but with some differences still
in place capped POPs around 80 percent.  That wave should move
through Thursday and head on its way Thursday night and pull a cold
front south.

A weak upper level shortwave trough follows for Friday and have
likely POPs with this. Weak height rises behind this wave for Friday
night with just low chance POPs lingering.

Next surface wave approaching for Saturday. Models having a bit
harder time resolving this one, but both GFS and ECMWF show QPF max
across the mountains, so included some likely POPs again for
Saturday afternoon across eastern third of CWA.

Only minimal changes made to temperatures. With lots of clouds,
expecting warm nights with average to just below average daytime
highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weather looks to remain unsettled for the first part of the extended
period as additional disturbances move through the region. Drier
weather possible early to mid next week as upper ridging strengthens
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread morning IFR/LIFR fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z.
The lifting fog could end as a low level deck mainly across
central WV and eastern mountains through 15Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail outside any strong storms with brief IFR
conditions along their path.

Overnight fog could redevelop later tonight for localized IFR/LIFR
conditions expected.

Surface flow will be light and variable except for strong gusts
in thunderstorms this afternoon. Flow aloft will continue light
west.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A shower or thunderstorm could directly
affect any TAF site Wednesday afternoon.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 07/27/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
Brief IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms every afternoon
and evening. Early morning IFR fog possible into mid week
depending, in part, on occurrence of showers or thunderstorms the
previous afternoon or night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ


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