Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 021440
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON
NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY
BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN
THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4
DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND
DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO
MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E
ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE
NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS
CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE.
BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV/SL


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