Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 301913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TURNING HOT AND MORE HUMID THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THAT FLOW...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSINGS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND ALONG THE IN AND
OH BORDER. EVENTUALLY...CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER SOUTHEAST OH AND
WV TONIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS SPREADING WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TONIGHT. YET ANOTHER DESCENT SHORTWAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY ALONG
THE COLD FRONT...WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SEEN ON PWATS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. SFC BASED
CAPE INCREASES AS WELL. BELIEVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE BRIEF
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXPECT A MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD PER MOISTURE AND
SOME TEMPERATURE ADVECTION TONIGHT UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW...AND
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOLING SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WENT WITH
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES AS THEY GO ALONG WITH LATEST BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD BE PUSHING
E/NE-WARD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE OUTSET OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD 00Z
MON. THIS IS ABOUT THREE OR SO HOURS SLOWER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF 2-IN PLUS ALSO ACCOMPANYING...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH
REPETITIVE TRAINING. IN COLLAB WITH NEAR-TERM FORECASTER AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
IN THE HWO FOR NOW. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP
TO BE EXITING THE NORTHEAST ZONES AROUND THE 07Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND
OVERALL...STILL ANTICIPATE A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF PRECIP BUT
SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY STILL POSSIBLE SHOULD TRAINING OCCUR.

NO WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO LABOR DAY FORECAST FROM PREV FCST. AREA
STILL UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING...WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY AFTERNOON SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE
WITH THE MID CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MID 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS STILL APPEAR ON TRACK...BUT WITH MORE SUN MAY SEE SOME
UPPER 80S. MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS WARM AND TRANQUIL...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING S/W TROUGH IN THE
MEAN FLOW ALOFT. BROUGHT IN LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
BY THE 15Z-18Z TIME FRAME WITH THESE FEATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CAN GENERALLY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
LEANED WPC FOR THE MOST PART WITH A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NO HEAT
WAVES OR ABNORMALLY COOL SPELLS IN SIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS TUE NIGHT WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING SAT NIGHT...WITH
SUBSEQUENT HIGHER POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS. IN BETWEEN...THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK MOSTLY SUNNY TO PERHAPS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST PART OF THE PERIOD UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS DIURNAL CU FIELD DEVELOPS. HIGH TO MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT HTS...BKW...AND EKN TODAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT ENHANCING PCPN
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE BULK OF PCPN DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST TO AFFECT HTS AND PKB FIRST
AROUND 09-12Z. THEN...SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CRW BY 15Z AND THE REST OF THE EASTERN SITES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY. REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES UNDER HEAVY RAIN. AT THIS TIME...IT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHERE THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. LOW
CEILINGS BEHIND THE FRONT...OR POST RAINFALL STRATUS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS EARLY MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHRA TONIGHT MAY VARY BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY...AND THEN IN DENSE EARLY
MORNING VALLEY FOG EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ







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