Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 301854
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
254 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level ridge rebuilds for mid week. Cold front arrives
Thursday with showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Have a discreet little band of moisture that has just traversed
the Ohio River...allowing convection to build just enough to
support a few isolated showers/thunderstorms. Band of moisture
shows up really well in the 700-600mb layer...where this layer is
bone dry elsewhere across the CWA. Convection also going up over
the mountains early this afternoon...but again...looking at
isolated to scattered activity.

Clearing tonight with developing valley fog likely. Dewpoints down
in the lower 60s will allow for temperatures to drop as low...with
50s in the higher elevations.

Ridging aloft returns...with weak disturbances within. Mid levels
will still be very dry...less some convective feedback seen on the
NAM over the mountains...which should limit any realized
shower/thunderstorm activity. Did increase the coverage of the low
POPS tomorrow...but still confine them generally to the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Not much change...upper level ridge still lingers in the region
and is slow to flatten out keeping diurnal thunderstorms in the
vicinity. A trough finally arrives on Thursday bringing a cold
front through with some instability for some thunderstorms and
rain showers. Front hangs up on the mountains keeping precip
chances there.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weak upper level ridge moves in Friday evening helping to dry
things out before another upper level wave begins to move into the
area for Sunday for another round of showers and thunderstorms.
Troughy pattern should keep lingering showers around...and
temperatures may be quite cool up in the mountains.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Another cold front approaches from the west Friday morning. Kept
high chance PoPs lowlands and likely PoPs over elevations of 3000
feet and higher.

Current track of remnants of tropical storm Bonnie approach from
the southeast Thursday through Friday. Attm, seems that the
showers will stay over the eastern mountains Wednesday and
Wednesday night. An upper trough moves east across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday. This second system is strong enough to drive a
weak front across the area Sunday night and Monday morning.

Went with a combination of the super blend and the all blend
guidance for temperatures through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mid levels of the atmosphere are very dry...which is a main
reason why the cumulus formation during heating today does not
have much vertical extent to it. There are low chances of showers
or an isolated thunderstorm from about CKB to CRW and east through
00Z Tuesday...but not high enough for prevailing or VCTS/CB.
Valley fog to settle in to many locations tonight...and relied
heavily on LAMP guidance for this.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of valley fog tonight may vary. May
need brief MVFR in SHRA through 00Z Tuesday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
River valley IFR fog possible early Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JW
AVIATION...26



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