Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 230553
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1253 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front passes tonight with gusty showers followed by much
colder temperatures for Tuesday. Cool and unsettled conditions
continue Wednesday, then warmer to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 925 PM Monday...

Will have to keep a close eye on storms developing to the west
with the potential to tap strong low level winds. Otherwise,
just minor tweaks to the forecast.


As of 517 PM Monday...

Will update the forecast to better handle the band of showers
currently moving through the area.


As of 238 PM Monday...

Deep upper level low will pass to our northwest during the
period. This will sponsor the passage of a strong cold front
across our area tonight. Initial showers now entering our
Kentucky counties should remain light and even diminish some as
they head east. A better line of showers is expected to develop
along the front and head eastward into our area overnight. Could
even see an isolated rumble of thunder with these. We will have
to watch the wind gust potential with this line of showers as
strong winds will be in place just above the surface. However,
did not hoist a wind advisory for now as low level inversion
should keep strongest winds aloft, and advisories issued by MRX
and RNK are for mountain wave potential which should not be a
concern on our side of the CWA border. Rainfall amounts are
expected to shake out in the one-quarter to one-half inch range,
which we should be able to handle hydro-wise.

A lull in the precip is expected behind the front Tuesday
morning before the passage of the upper level trough axis sparks
additional shower development during the afternoon on Tuesday.
Temperatures will reach early highs Tuesday morning and then
remain steady or slowly fall during the day. Rain showers will
transition to snow showers over the higher terrain by late
afternoon. The bigger issue on Tuesday will be gusty west-
southwest winds which may approach advisory criteria, especially
in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

The dry slot behind the front fills in with low-level moisture
as the upper low rotates through the area Tuesday Night. As a
result of this and the passage of the upper level trough, there
is an enhanced potential for accumulating snowfall in the
northern lowlands and especially into the upslope areas of the
mountains. New snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
will amount to a dusting in the lowlands and around 2-3" in the
mountain zones according to latest guidance. Gusty winds in the
teens (lowlands) and up to the low 40`s mph will again be
possible as the base of the trough moves through.

A break in the action is forecast Wednesday with a weak ridge
breaking otherwise troughing flow, however another upper level short
wave is quick to follow that will again enhance precipitation
potential. Any afternoon showers would be rain or a mix in the
lowlands with light snow accumulations possible in the mountains
late Wednesday through Thursday morning before drying out
entirely. High pressure builds from the southwest, drying the
region out and introducing warm air advection. Highs Thursday
according to a model blend will reach into the 40`s in the
lowlands and to around 30 in the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...

Upper-level ridging increases and surface high pressure slides
across the southern CONUS to round out the work week introducing
warm air advection. Lowland temperatures Friday and Saturday will
flirt with 60 F under mostly sunny skies (Friday) and continued
WAA (Saturday) ahead of the next trough/surface low combination.
At this time - a large amount of timing and depth uncertainty
exists, so have kept the blend of operational guidance regarding
PoP as well as temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Tuesday...

Line of showers with isolated embedded thunder now crossing the
Ohio River and pushing slowly to the east, while individual
cells are moving more rapidly to the north northeast. The
history of this line and the cells within it are very brief IFR
visibilities in rain and winds generally to 35kts in gusts. The
timing of these and their arrival are still challenging, even
in the very near term of the aviation forecast, so some
amendments may be necessary.

Behind the line and cold frontal passage, winds veer to the
west southwest with gusts in the 25-35kt range. Ceilings will
come down into prevailing MVFR between 1500-2700ft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Frontal timing and restrictions could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 01/23/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/MC
NEAR TERM...ABE/RPY
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...26



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