Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 160744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
344 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY. WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES ITS RETREAT INTO THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A LARGELY CLOUDLESS DAY IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AFTER SUB FREEZING LOWS.
WITH CLEAR SKIES HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CALM WINDS
EXPECTED...ANOTHER FREEZE IS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HILL AND RIDGE TOPS
WILL BE A BIT MILDER WITH 925MB FLOW VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY
12Z THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST FOR THURSDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A WELL
DEFINED SPLIT IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION.
THERE IS PERSISTENT CONSENSUS IN LITTLE CHANCE OF PHASING...AS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION OF THE TWO STREAMS. THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE WITH ATTENDING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE SYSTEM
DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER/SURFACE LOW MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE CMC MODEL
CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG NORTHERN OUTLIER ON THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM AS
IT TRIES TO DROP SOME NORTHERN ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN UPPER
LOW...BUT STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

TIMING IS SIMILAR WITH THE COLD FRONT...COMING THRU THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THERE IS ONLY MODEST UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE SHORT WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH...SO A BIG
QUESTION IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO ACT ON. THERE IS CONSENSUS FOR
LIMITED MOISTURE TO BE INGESTED NORTHWARD FOR OUR SYSTEM TO ACT ON.
CERTAINLY NOTHING SPECIAL WITH THE PW/S...AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH AT BEST...SO CANNOT RULE OUT KEEPING AT LEAST THE EXISTING
LOWER POPS IN THE FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY LATER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...PROBABLY MUCH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF. AM
DISCOUNTING THE NAM WITH A BATCH OF SHOWERS EARLIER ON
FRIDAY...LIKELY DUE TO FEEDBACK PROBLEMS FROM THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM.
VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AND WILL OMIT THUNDER. IN ALL...A VERY
MODEST EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THIS PERIOD...WITH JUST
MINOR COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH MAINLY LOW POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONAL AS FAR
AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS CONTINUING TO ERODE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MAY STILL
HAVE A COUPLE HOURS OF VFR -SHSN AT EKN...BUT EXPECTING ALL
TERMINALS VFR BY 09Z.

WINDS WILL EASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WE
LOSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SOME CONCERN OF BACK BUILDING OF THE STRATUS
IN CKB AND HOLDING IN EKN LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 04/16/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26








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