Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
000
FXXX10 KWNP 201231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 20 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 20-Dec 22 2014 is 6 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 20-Dec 22 2014

            Dec 20     Dec 21     Dec 22
00-03UT        3          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          2          4
06-09UT        2          3          3
09-12UT        2          3          3
12-15UT        2          5 (G1)     3
15-18UT        4          5 (G1)     2
18-21UT        4          5 (G1)     2
21-00UT        3          6 (G2)     3

Rationale: Unsettle to active levels are expected on day one (20 Dec)
with the potential arrival of a glancing blow from the 17 Dec coronal
mass ejection (CME).  G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms are
possible on day two (21 Dec) in response to the anticipated arrival of a
CME from 18 Dec.  G1 conditions may linger into day three (22 Dec).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 20-Dec 22 2014

              Dec 20  Dec 21  Dec 22
S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%

Rationale: There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
(S1-Minor) for the forecast period (20-22 Dec) due to the potential for
significant flare activity from Regions 2241 or 2242.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 20 2014 0028 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 20-Dec 22 2014

              Dec 20        Dec 21        Dec 22
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at moderate
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) levels with a chance for further X-class flares
(R3-Strong or greater) for the next three days (20-22 Dec) due to
potential significant flare activity from Regions 2241 or 2242.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.