Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 070030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Jul 07 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 07-Jul 09 2015 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 07-Jul 09 2015

            Jul 07     Jul 08     Jul 09
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          1
06-09UT        2          1          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        1          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 07-Jul 09 2015

              Jul 07  Jul 08  Jul 09
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jul 06 2015 2040 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 07-Jul 09 2015

              Jul 07        Jul 08        Jul 09
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
and a slight chance for an (R3-Strong) event over the next three days
(07-09 Jul), particularly from Region 2381.



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