Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 180031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Nov 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 18-Nov 20 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 18-Nov 20 2017

            Nov 18     Nov 19     Nov 20
00-03UT        3          3          4
03-06UT        2          4          4
06-09UT        2          4          3
09-12UT        1          3          3
12-15UT        1          3          3
15-18UT        2          3          3
18-21UT        2          3          3
21-00UT        3          4          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on days two and three (19-20
Nov) due to CH HSS activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2017

              Nov 18  Nov 19  Nov 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 18-Nov 20 2017

              Nov 18        Nov 19        Nov 20
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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