Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 251230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 25-Oct 27 2014 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 25-Oct 27 2014

            Oct 25     Oct 26     Oct 27
00-03UT        3          3          4
03-06UT        2          2          3
06-09UT        2          2          2
09-12UT        2          2          3
12-15UT        2          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        4          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2014

              Oct 25  Oct 26  Oct 27
S1 or greater   40%     45%     45%

Rationale: There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton flux event
at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level for the next
three days.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 24 2014 2141 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 25-Oct 27 2014

              Oct 25        Oct 26        Oct 27
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   45%           45%           45%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected over the
next three days (25-27 Oct) with a chance for R3 (Strong) or greater
radio blackouts.



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