Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 081231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 08 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 08-Feb 10 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 08-Feb 10 2016

            Feb 08     Feb 09     Feb 10
00-03UT        5 (G1)     4          3
03-06UT        4          3          2
06-09UT        4          2          2
09-12UT        2          4          2
12-15UT        3          4          1
15-18UT        2          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        4          3          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms occurred early on day one (08
Feb) due to the onset of a co-rotating interaction region followed by a
negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.  Unsettled to active
conditions are expected to continue on day two (09 Feb) due to a
possible glancing blow from the 05 Feb CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 08-Feb 10 2016

              Feb 08  Feb 09  Feb 10
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 08-Feb 10 2016

              Feb 08        Feb 09        Feb 10
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio
blackouts for the forecast period (08-10 Feb).


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