Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 281230
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 28-Aug 30 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 28-Aug 30 2014

            Aug 28     Aug 29     Aug 30
00-03UT        4          4          2
03-06UT        5 (G1)     3          2
06-09UT        4          3          3
09-12UT        3          2          2
12-15UT        3          2          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        4          2          2

Rationale: Minor storm (NOAA Scale G1) conditions are expected for day
one (28 Aug) with a decreasing chance for a major geomagnetic storm
(NOAA Scale G2), in response to effects from a pair of CMEs which
left the Sun on 22 Aug. CME effects are expected to wane by the end of
day one, replaced by the arrival of a positive polarity CH/HSS on day
two (29 Aug). Slightly enhanced, but below the G1 minor threshold,
conditions are expected for day two, with less than G1 minor conditions
forecast for day three (30 Aug) as the CH/HSS impacts subside.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2014

              Aug 28  Aug 29  Aug 30
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 28-Aug 30 2014

              Aug 28        Aug 29        Aug 30
R1-R2           20%           20%           20%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 radio
blackouts) on days one through three (28-30 Aug).


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