Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 030040
DGTGUM
PMZ181-170200-
MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM CHST THU AUG 3 2017

...DROUGHT BECOMES EVEN WORSE IN THE FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUMMER INTO
EARLY FALL. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...BUT WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE
INTENSITIES. FOR AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE
WESTERN MICRONESIA AND PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA.

VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE
WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FAIRLY NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN
REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE REST OF
MICRONESIA HAS HAD SUFFICIENT RAIN TO AVERT DROUGHT. THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU AND YAP STATE HAVE HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL RECENTLY WITH MONSOON
WEATHER. THE REST OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING
KAPINGAMARANGI...KOSRAE...AND NUKUORO HAVE HAD ADEQUATE RAINFALL
PRIMARILY FROM PASSING WAVES OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS BEGUN...BUT THE
PROCESS WAS ABOUT A MONTH LATER THAN NORMAL. THESE WESTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF MICRONESIA. KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE HAVE RECENTLY BENEFITED
FROM SOME OF THOSE RAINS.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS WORSENED
FROM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4) TO SHORT-TERM AND LONG-
TERM EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). WOTJE AND NEARBY
ATOLLS REMAIN IN LONG-TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4).
KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN A RATING OF D-NOTHING.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...
ON APRIL 24...THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS...AND THIS
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF JUNE.

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
THE DROUGHT AFFECTING UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN ATOLLS NORTH OF
KWAJALEIN HAS BECOME WORSE AND IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS AN EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED ONLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WITH A SMALL IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. ISLANDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND
ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM
DROUGHT.

OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...
SOME PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO...
MALOELAP...UJAE...WOTJE...LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS. SUFFICIENT
RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU...JALUIT AND
AILINGLAPLAP...AND THESE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO HAVE HAD ADEQUATE
MONTHLY RAINFALL THROUGH JULY TO AVERT DROUGHT IMPACTS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE FALL.
CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEAR EQUAL CHANCE FOR A CONTINUATION
OF ENSO-NEUTRAL OR A TRANSITION TO EL NINO BY OCTOBER. ANY 2017 EL
NINO SHOULD NOT BE STRONG. CONFIDENCE ON THE COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT
HAS IMPROVED OVER THAT FROM THE SPRING. EASTERN MICRONESIAN ISLANDS
NORTH OF 10N ARE STILL EXPERIENCING DROUGHT...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IN THE TUTT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST AND
THIS SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF EASTERN MICRONESIA.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN    JUL    JUL %
                                                      (1-31) NORMAL

WOTJE             0.08  4.48  0.99  5.23  1.14  8.86   5.55    124
UTIRIK            0.63  MSG   MSG  TRACE  1.38  1.60   1.74     36
AILINGALAPLAP    12.75  7.39  7.76  9.82  2.82  9.45   7.91     70
JALUIT            9.94 13.50 11.23  9.58  2.33  5.41   8.56     73
MAJURO           17.65  7.59 13.07 10.36  4.93 13.03  12.52    105
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE   9.00  5.60  1.07  3.44  5.20 10.80   6.91     68

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY PERSISTENT
TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND
MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)
WILL BE ONLY A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...
WITH SPOTTY RAINFALL OF A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (KWAJALEIN TO WOTJE) SHOULD
BE NEAR ONE INCH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND TWO TO THREE INCHES THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 17 AUGUST 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING ALERT AND WARNING AREAS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS
THE MARIANA ISLANDS. WATCH AREAS EXTEND FARTHER NORTHEAST BETWEEN
20N AND 30N TO ACROSS THE DATE LINE AND BETWEEN 5N AND 5S TO BEYOND
THE DATE LINE. THIS INCLUDES CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES AND
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS
WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM
...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON

$$



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