Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 PM EST Thu Jan 5 2017

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 1 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD JANUARY 5TH TO
JANUARY 19TH.

...OVERVIEW...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE WINTER OF
2017 IS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOWPACK
AND NO CURRENT RIVER ICE.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS IN THE ADIRONDACKS RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO FEET...WITH
AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 3 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT MEASURED BY THE
HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT IN THE INDIAN LAKE
AND SACANDAGA LAKE WATERSHEDS. BETWEEN THREE INCHES AND A FOOT OF
SNOW WERE MEASURED IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN AND
BERKSHIRE MOUNTAINS...CORRESPONDING TO ONE TO THREE AND A HALF
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT. SNOW TOTALS IN THE CATSKILLS WERE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH JUST UNDER AN INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT
MEASURED ON AVERAGE FOR THE ASHOKAN...SCHOHARIE AND RONDOUT
WATERSHEDS. MOST MOHAWK AND HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS HAD BARE
GROUND OR HYDROLOGICALLY INSIGNIFICANT SNOW COVERAGE.

...RIVER FLOWS...GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

28 DAY STREAMFLOW AVERAGES IN NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT ARE NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL ACCORDING TO U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY /USGS/
STREAMGAGES. ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NEW
YORK...28 DAY AVERAGES HAVE REBOUNDED TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A
PROLONGED PERIOD IN THE BELOW NORMAL RANGE DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.

WHILE STREAMFLOW IS RECOVERING WITH RECENT SNOWMELT AND MODERATE
RAINFALL...GROUNDWATER LEVELS THAT WERE VERY LOW DUE TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND AND MOST U.S. GEOLOGICAL
SURVEY /USGS/ WELLS ARE STILL REPORTING BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL DUE TO DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH IT HAS SEEN A RECENT IMPROVEMENT WITH AN
UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION IN DECEMBER. CURRENTLY ONLY ONE NEW YORK
STATE MESONET STATION IN THE SERVICE AREA...SCHAGHTICOKE...IS
REPORTING A TWO INCH DEPTH SOIL TEMPERATURE RIGHT AT THE FREEZING
MARK AND THE REST ARE SHOWING ABOVE FREEZING SOIL TEMPERATURES.

...WATER SUPPLY...

NEW YORK CITY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION /NYCDEP/
WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 65.9 PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WHICH
IS 21.4 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL STORAGE CAPACITY.

HUDSON RIVER BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS ARE ALL
WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF TARGET ELEVATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...EXCEPT STILLWATER RESERVOIR WHICH IS NEARLY TWO FEET BELOW
NORMAL AND INDIAN LAKE WHICH IS OVER THREE FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE 10TH THROUGH THE 14TH OF JANUARY...
AS WELL AS THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY 12TH THROUGH THE
18TH...CALL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

...SUMMARY...

THE THREAT FOR SNOWMELT AND RIVER ICE JAM FLOODING IS BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE SECOND WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR
THURSDAY... JANUARY 19TH. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE BELOW NORMAL
SNOWPACK AND NO RIVER ICE.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.


$$

BEW



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