Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
FGUS74 KCRP 161840
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
140 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015
...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Aransas River Basin in South Texas...
The Corpus Christi Texas National Weather Service office has
implemented advanced hydrologic prediction service (ahps) for
the Aransas River Basin in South Texas. AHPS enables the
National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic
outlooks. This service is also available on the internet.
In the table below...The 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Aransas River at Skidmore has a
flood stage of 13 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Skidmore
forecast point will rise above 12.2 feet during the next 90 days.
Chance Of Exceeding Stages At Specific Locations
Valid [ 07/15/2015 - 10/13/2015 ]
LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Skidmore 13.0 1.0 1.4 5.1 7.5 12.2 18.9 26.0 35.6 41.4
This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take
into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture.
by providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...The
level of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can
Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
Internet at: www.srh.weather.gov/cgi-bin/ahps.cgi?crp.
Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.