Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CST THU FEB 16 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook applies to the Dodge City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA)
which includes the following rivers in southwest Kansas...

  - The Arkansas River from the Kansas-Colorado state line to below
    Larned, Kansas
  - the Saline and Smoky Hill Rivers in Trego and Ellis counties
  - the Walnut Creek in Ness and Rush counties
  - the Pawnee Creek and Buckner Creek
  - the Rattlesnake Creek and Crooked Creek
  - the Cimarron River and Medicine Lodge River

This outlook is valid from February 16 through March 2, 2017

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give advanced
notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil moisture,
snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook is issued.
The vast majority of flood events in the Dodge City Service area
result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation...or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

Over the past three months, average precipitation has run from around
normal to 1.5 inches below normal in areas along and north of Highway
50/156. Areas farther south generally received above normal
precipitation with locations from around Meade and Ashland to
Medicine Lodge seeing precipitation amounts as much as 1.5 to 2.0
inches above normal.

Over the past year, total precipitation amounts were within an inch
or so of normal across west central and southwest Kansas. Farther
south, areas of southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma border as well as
south central Kansas saw annual precipitation amounts that were 3 to
6 inches above normal.

Soil moisture across southern Kansas was in the 70th percentile in
areas generally east of Highway 283, representing above normal
conditions. Areas to the west of Highway 283 were near normal.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor Index (www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu)
issued February 14, 2017 shows that portions of central and south
central Kansas are drought free. Farther west, Abnormally Dry (D0) to
Moderate Drought (D1) conditions prevailed across the remainder of
southwest Kansas, with an area of Severe Drought (D2) conditions
extending from around Elkhart and Hugoton north and east through
Syracuse, Garden City and Ness City.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through April 2017 is calling for drought conditions to improve
or disappear by the end of April.

The Climate Prediction Center Outlook during the 3 month period for
March through May calls for at least a 40 percent chance for above
normal temperatures and equal chances for below normal, normal or
above normal precipitation.

The 8-14 Day CPC Outlook valid for February 21st through February
27th is leaning toward better chances for above normal temperatures
as well, and is also leaning toward better chances for above normal
precipitation.

Colorado Rocky Mountain winter snowpack in the Upper Arkansas River
Basin is well above long term average conditions. The average
snowpack from USDA SNOTEL sites in the upper part of the basin is
roughly at 162 percent of average.

At John Martin Reservoir in southeast Colorado, current water surface
elevation is at 3827.04 feet which equates to storage of
approximately 122,341 acre-feet. The water surface elevation is
approximately 25 feet below the top of the conservation pool. The
conservation pool is approximately 36 percent filled. There is
abundant capacity for spring snowmelt and rains at John Martin
Reservoir.

At Cedar Bluff Reservoir in west central Kansas, the reservoir pool
elevation stands at 2118.8 feet or approximately 25.2 feet below the
top of the conservation pool and 47.2 feet from the top of the flood
pool. There is abundant capacity for spring rains at Cedar Bluff
Reservoir.

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows that streamflow across central and southwest Kansas is running
at around 50 to 100 percent of normal in many locations. A few
exceptions to this are in the upper reaches of the Smoky Hill River
as well as the Cimarron River where streamflow is generally less than
30 percent of normal.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/18/2017  - 05/19/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N           7.0    9.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Schoenchen 2E       11.0   14.0   17.0 :  <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Creek
Ellis               15.0   17.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hays 2SSE           26.0   29.0   32.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N         13.0   15.0   17.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Arkansas River
Coolidge             8.0   10.0   12.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Syracuse 1S         10.0   12.0   14.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Garden City         10.0   13.0   16.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Dodge City          11.0   13.0   15.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
NEKOMA              29.0   31.0   33.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7W          16.0   21.0   25.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 7WNW        30.0   32.0   34.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Pawnee River
Sanford             24.0   27.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE       9.0   10.0   11.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Zenith 10NNW        17.0   18.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Crooked Creek
Englewood            6.5    8.0   10.0 :  10   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE          5.0    6.0    7.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE           10.0   12.0   13.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/18/2017  - 05/19/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N            1.5    1.5    1.6    1.6    3.7    5.1    6.3
Schoenchen 2E         2.3    2.3    2.3    3.1    5.0    6.8    8.2
:Big Creek
Ellis                 9.4    9.4    9.4    9.6   10.4   12.7   13.2
Hays 2SSE             5.1    5.1    5.1    5.9    8.7   13.8   17.0
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N           2.4    2.5    2.6    2.6    5.9    9.2   11.5
:Arkansas River
Coolidge              3.2    3.2    3.2    3.3    3.5    3.8    4.9
Syracuse 1S           4.6    4.6    4.7    4.7    4.8    5.1    5.8
Garden City           5.5    5.6    5.7    5.8    6.0    6.2    6.5
Dodge City            6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    7.8
:Walnut Creek
NEKOMA                7.0    7.0    7.0   10.2   15.1   22.3   25.0
:Buckner Creek
Burdett 7W            5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    6.7    9.1   10.7
:Pawnee Creek
Burdett 7WNW          2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    7.2   11.0   14.4
:Pawnee River
Sanford               5.8    5.8    5.8    5.9    8.3   10.3   12.4
:Rattlesnake Creek
Macksville 8SE        3.4    3.5    3.7    4.5    5.6    6.9    7.3
Zenith 10NNW         11.7   11.8   11.9   12.9   14.4   15.1   16.3
:Crooked Creek
Englewood             3.2    3.2    3.2    3.3    5.0    6.5    7.1
:Cimarron River
Forgan 8NNE           2.3    2.4    2.7    3.1    3.5    3.9    4.1
:Medicine Lodge River
Kiowa 2NE             1.3    1.3    1.7    3.5    4.8    7.2    8.4

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/18/2017  - 05/19/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Smoky Hill River
Arnold 12N            1.1    1.1    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0    0.0
Schoenchen 2E         2.3    2.3    2.2    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0
:Big Creek
Ellis                 9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4    9.4
Hays 2SSE             5.1    5.1    5.0    5.0    4.9    4.9    4.9
:Saline River
Wakeeney 5N           2.3    2.1    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based on the above information, there is a near normal to below
normal risk of spring flooding across the Dodge City Service Area.

The next scheduled Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be
issued on March 2, 2017.

Visit our web site weather.gov/ddc for more weather and water
information.

$$

Gerard






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