National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions: 1 2
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FGUS74 KJAN 192207
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
220000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
500 PM CDT FRI APR 19 2013


...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM
ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ...


SYNOPSIS...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS. RAINFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IOWA...NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. RAINFALL FROM 2
TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND THE LOWER HALF OF INDIANA. FORTUNATELY...ONLY 1.5 TO
2.5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND AND TENNESSEE RIVER
BASINS.

RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FROM CAPE GIRARDEAU AND THEBES TO RISE RAPIDLY. CAPE GIRARDEAU
WILL CREST OVER 11 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WHILE THEBES WILL CREST 9
FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. RISES FROM THEBES WILL MOVE DOWN TO CAIRO
WHICH IS AT THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OHIO RIVER AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
CAIRO IS EXPECTED TO CREST AT 48 FEET ON THE 26TH WHICH IS 8 FEET
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RAINFALL ACROSS THE WEST
TENNESSEE DRAINAGE BASINS HAS BEEN AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES WHILE THE
LOWER ARKANSAS AND WHITE RIVER BASINS HAVE ONLY HAD 1 TO 2 INCHES.
THE RIVER FROM ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ IS NOW EXPECTED TO CREST IN
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

OUTLOOK...

A SNOW PACK REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSPPI RIVER BASIN IN
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SNOW...FROM 2 TO 16 INCHES... IS ON THE
GROUND IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SNOW DEPTHS FROM 8 TO 35 INCHES ARE
ON THE GROUND ABOVE MINNEAPOLIS. IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...FROM 2 TO
20 INCHES OF SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. THIS SNOW PACK IS OVER A MUCH
SMALLER AREA THAN THE SNOW PACK OF 2011. THE TIMING OF THE MELT OF
THIS SNOW PACK COULD HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE RIVER CREST AT CAIRO
AT A LATER DATE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
RAINFALL FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD FALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO RIVER BASINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MORE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.

DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MELT AND FUTURE RAINFALL
TOTALS...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THE OHIO RIVER AT CAIRO ILLINOIS
AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO CREST HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

THOSE WITH CONCERNS ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR RIVER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
WEEKS.


$$
MVP
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
