Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
353 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017

...Potential heavy rain and flooding threat unfolding...

Several weather factors are becoming established that could lead
to a period of torrential rainfall that would lead to a flood
potential on several rivers and streams throughout this work week.

First, a broad area of low pressure situated near the Yucatan
Peninsula is currently being closely monitored for potential
tropical cyclone development in the next few days. Second, a cold
frontal zone is draped from the eastern United States into the
gulf coastal states and is in the process of becoming stationary
over the forecast area. Third, a very large region of deep
tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico and western
Caribbean Sea will be advancing northward during the next 24 to 48
hours, reaching the central Gulf States area by later tonight
into Tuesday.

These three ingredients combined favor heavy rainfall potential
that could see storm total accumulations easily range from 3 to 6
inches over a 2 to 3 day period across a large portion of
southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. There is also a
potential for much higher accumulations in the 10 to 16 inch range
if the system in the Gulf does move closer to the central gulf
coast region during the week.

At this time, it should be strongly stated that there is a large
degree of uncertainty on actual rainfall accumulations at any
particular location. There is a fair degree of confidence that
this weather pattern is conducive to heavy rainfall. The heaviest
amounts could easily remain over the near coastal waters, but
could also occur over land areas close to the coast. There is also
moderate confidence in the timing of heaviest rainfall likely to
take place over a 2 to 3 day stretch beginning late Monday night
and continuing through Thursday night. The Weather Prediction
Center rainfall forecasting branch is indicating a MARGINAL risk
of excessive rainfall generally over a large portion of Southeast
Louisiana to include the Baton Rouge metro area, the areas
generally north and west of the tidal lakes. There is a SLIGHT
risk of excessive rainfall over coastal Mississippi and the
extreme eastern portions of southeast Louisiana to include the
greater New Orleans metro area.

In the meantime, stay very alert to the unfolding weather
situation during the week. Some precautionary measures can be done
today and early Tuesday, such as ensuring ditches and catchment
basins are clear of debris and free flowing. Also, be sure you
have a plan in place to act upon if and when flood warnings are
issued for your location during the week, particularly if you live
near a river or stream.

$$

24/RR



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