Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
120 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK 2015 FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...

SPRING IS THE TAIL END OF THE DRY SEASON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH APRIL CLIMATOLOGICALLY ONE OF THE
DRIEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR.  STREAMFLOWS ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED
DURING THE LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. HOWEVER ALL RIVERS REMAIN WELL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS PERSIST AND THIS TENDS TO PRODUCE A GREATER
RISK OF SPRING FLOODING DUE TO AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK. AS A
RESULT OF THIS...THE THREE MONTH PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE PERIOD MARCH THROUGH MAY
INDICATES A GOOD CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FOR WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

THE MOST LIKELY MONTH FOR FLOODING TO OCCUR WOULD BE MARCH
AS APRIL IS TYPICALLY MUCH DRIER AS THE STORM TRACK BEGINS TO LIFT
WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. THE OVERALL RISK FOR SPRINGTIME FLOODING IS
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER THIS IS THE END OF THE DRY SEASON
AND FLOODING DOES NOT TYPICALLY OCCUR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT WOULD
LIKELY REQUIRE A STORM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS FOR RIVER FLOODING TO DEVELOP.

SHOULD ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT THREE MONTHS...
THE MAIN IMPACT WOULD BE TO SET THE STAGE FOR A MUCH GREATER RISK OF
SUMMERTIME FLOODING AS THE RAINY SEASON KICKS IN ACROSS THE REGION.

$$

OGLESBY




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