Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Southeast RFC

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FGUS62 KALR 291638
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA, GA
100 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2017

...THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL OF
RIVER FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA.

HISTORICALLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...THE RIVER
FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF
RIVER FLOOD EVENTS INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN
EARLY TO MID MARCH...ENDING IN LATE APRIL FOR THE REGION. THE
FORECAST FOR BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOODING INDICATES THAT THE
MAGNITUDE AND NUMBER OF EVENTS WILL BE LESS THAN TYPICAL.

OVERALL...CONSIDERING BELOW NORMAL STREAMFLOW AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ONLY NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MARCH AND EARLY
APRIL...THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF RIVER
FLOODING WILL BE LESS THAN USUAL. IN ADDITION...CONTINUED WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE MADE DECIDUOUS TREES AND VEGETATION COME OUT OF
WINTER DORMANCY SEVERAL WEEKS EARLIER THAN NORMAL INCREASING
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RATES AND MINIMIZING RUNOFF.

FOR 28-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS IN THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...
STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL IN MOST BASINS.

PAST PRECIPITATION...IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC
MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...RAINFALL HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE WHOLE AREA AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL IN SOME PARTS.

RESERVOIRS...MOST OF THE RESERVOIRS IN THE REGION ARE NEAR THEIR
TARGET POOLS.  THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS ALONG THE SAVANNAH BASIN AT
THE BORDER OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.  THE TWO MAIN CORPS
RESERVOIRS THAT HAVE THE LARGEST WATER SUPPLY ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME YEAR.  AS WE HEAD INTO MAY...MANY RESERVOIR TARGET
POOLS BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THEIR SUMMER POOL.

SNOW PACK...THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW PACK ACROSS THE AREA.

SHORT TERM RAINFALL CHANCES SHOW NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AREA.  AT THIS TIME...MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS THAT WOULD PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING.

AS FAR AS LONGER TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING...BASED ON THE CPC LONG LEAD OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH THROUGH MAY...THERE IS EQUAL CHANCES AT NORMAL...BELOW NORMAL
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGY....RAINFALL GENERALLY DECREASES IN APRIL RELATIVE TO
MARCH ACROSS THE REGION.

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY MONTH.

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO... WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC.  IN THE WATER SUPPLY
PULLDOWN MENU IS THE WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK.

HAMILL



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