Extended Streamflow Guidance
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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON MA
610 PM EST WED FEB 18 2015

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /4/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

ELSEWHERE THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK STATE
AND VERMONT AND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHEAST.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE PREVAILED THROUGH MID FEBRUARY
ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHEAST. PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL DEPARTURES
HAVE VARIED SO FAR IN FEBRUARY.

A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN HAS PREVAILED. A PERSISTENT RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. HAS BEEN NEARLY CONTINUOUS SINCE LATE JANUARY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS AND NORTHWEST FLOW TO CROSS THE REGION.

A WEAK EL NINO HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTHERN SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM TO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE ACTIVE PATTERN. A NEARLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OF
STORM SYSTEMS WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WARMTH HAS OCCURRED NEAR
THE GULF STREAM SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WHILE REGIONAL TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SNOW OR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION.

MEANWHILE NORTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH DEEP SNOWPACK HAS INCREASED
THE EFFECT OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES IN NEW YORK STATE HAVE AVERAGED 9 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER
THAN NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. THE GREATEST DEPARTURES HAVE OCCURRED
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND HAVE AVERAGED 11 TO 14 DEGREES
COLDER THAN NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. THE GREATEST DEPARTURES HAVE
OCCURRED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

LATEST FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE VARIED WITH GENERAL
SURPLUSES UP TO 1.25 INCHES NOTED ACROSS WESTERN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND GENERAL DEFICITS UP TO 1.00 INCH ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GREATEST SURPLUSES WERE NOTED NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO NEAR SYRACUSE AND ROCHESTER AND IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND FROM BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS TO CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE
GREATEST DEFICITS WERE REPORTED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FROM CARIBOU
TO AUGUSTA.

LATEST FEBRUARY SNOWFALL DEPARTURES HAVE ALSO VARIED WITH THE
GREATEST SURPLUSES FROM 25 TO 50 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL NOTED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND IN SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AWAY FROM THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. NEAR
NORMAL SNOWFALL WAS REPORTED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NEW
YORK CITY AREA AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL IN CARIBOU MAINE.

LOOKING AT THE TELECONNECTION PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME VARIATION IN THE JET
STREAM PATTERN. THE POSITIVE NORTH ATLANTIC (PNA) PATTERN
CONTRIBUTING TO THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE IS FORECAST TO TURN NEGATIVE.
MEANWHILE THE POSITIVE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) ALLOWING
FOR PROGRESSIVE JET STREAM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY
POSITIVE. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION (EPO) WHICH ENCOURAGES
CROSS POLAR FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEGATIVE.

OVERALL WE ANTICIPATE COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE AS DEEP SNOWPACK PERSISTS. SOME BRIEF MODERATION IS
POSSIBLE AS THE JET STREAM FLOW VARIES AND FLATTENS A BIT.

IN THE NEAR TERM WE SEE A SERIES OF LOW SYSTEMS TRACKING OFFSHORE
AND AN INVERTED STYLE TROUGH WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE SNOWFALL ALONG
COASTAL NEW ENGLAND THIS TODAY INTO FRIDAY UP IN MAINE. A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22ND. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS
INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AND INTERIOR EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH A CHANGE
TO RAIN FOR A TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONFIDENCE LOWERS
REGARDING THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS AND PHASING THE
WEEK OF FEBRUARY 22ND BUT ONE OR TWO WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENTS
ARE POSSIBLE...PERHAPS FOCUSED AROUND THE 25TH OR 26TH.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK INDICATES
BEST CHANCES FOR COLDER THEN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH
NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
PERIOD.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS COURTESY OF FOUR MAJOR COASTAL
STORMS SINCE LATE JANUARY. MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALSO HELPED PRESERVE THE SNOWPACK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. AS OF
FEBRUARY 19TH 2015...NEARLY 100 PERCENT OF THE NERFC SERVICE AREA IS
COVERED WITH SNOW WITH ABOVE NORMAL DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

...NEW YORK STATE...

LATEST SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA RANGE
FROM 4 TO 12 INCHES...WITH 12 TO 16 INCH DEPTHS REPORTED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES. THESE EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HEADING NORTH ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND LOWER TO MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION...SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM 8 TO 20 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTAL REPORTED AT EAST JEWITT. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM TWO
TO FOUR INCHES WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND IN CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE VARY FROM 1 TO 2 FEET....LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS UP TO 30 INCHES ARE NOTED JUST EAST OF BUFFALO AND ALSO JUST
WEST OF SYRACUSE AT AUBURN. SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW DEPTHS AROUND 10
INCHES ARE NOTED APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIER REGION. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM TWO TO FIVE INCHES WHICH IS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HEADING ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM 13
INCHES AT SCHOHARIE TO AROUND 22 INCHES IN THE UTICA AREA. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WHICH IS NEAR
NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND THE ADIRONDACKS REGION
RANGE FROM 18 TO 30 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS RANGING
UP TO AROUND 40 INCHES NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS REPORTED AT EAST CANADA CREEK AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO NEAR
THE TUG HILL REGION WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL.

LOOKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION SNOW DEPTHS
DECREASE TO 6 TO 12 INCHES...BUT INCREASE CONSIDERABLY APPROACHING
THE ADIRONDACKS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A MINIMUM OF 1.5
INCHES AT ROUSES POINT NEARING FOUR INCHES AT THE SARANAC RIVER IN
PLATTSBURGH WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS ACROSS THE REGION AND WERE GENERALLY ABOVE TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM ONE TO TWO FEET IN MOST OF CONNECTICUT...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 29 INCHES REPORTED AT WEST THOMPSON IN
NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...EXCEPT NEARING FIVE INCHES AT
PUTNAM CONNECTICUT. THESE EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

IN RHODE ISLAND SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM ONE TO TWO FEET SOUTH AND 24
TO 30 INCHES NORTH. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM TWO TO FIVE
INCHES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
AROUND FIVE INCHES REPORTED AT WOONSOCKET. THESE EQUIVALENTS RANGE
FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTHS IN MASSACHUSETTS VARY CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE STATE.

SNOW DEPTHS IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS RANGE FROM 10 TO 40 INCHES WITH
THE LOWEST DEPTHS ON THE OUTER CAPE AT CHATHAM AND THE HIGHER 30 TO
40 INCH DEPTHS REPORTED ACROSS THE NEPONSET WATERSHED...CHARLES
RIVER AND THE LOWER MERRIMACK BASIN FROM AROUND LOWELL WEST TO
FITCHBURG. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM FIVE TO 6.5
INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAPE...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER EQUIVALENTS NEARING EIGHT INCHES AT THE BLUE HILLS IN
MILTON. THESE EQUIVALENTS ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTHS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS RANGE FROM 16 TO 30
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NOTED ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EASTERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND FAR NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
LOWEST TOTALS NEAR SPRINGFIELD AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY. SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM THREE TO SEVEN INCHES. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ARE REPORTED NEAR THE VERMONT BORDER AT ROWE AND LOWEST ACROSS NEAR
THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY FROM AMHERST TO NEAR SPRINGFIELD. THESE
EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL.

...VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...

IN VERMONT SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM A MINIMUM OF 6 TO 12 INCHES FROM
THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN AREA NEAR BURLINGTON AND ALSO SOUTH TO RUTLAND.
SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 INCHES ACROSS THE GREEN MOUNTAINS
WITH A MAXIMUM OF 35 TO 40 INCHES AT WALDEN AND BALL MOUNTAIN LAKE.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM AROUND ONE TO THREE INCHES FROM
BURLINGTON TO RUTLAND...AND THREE TO SEVEN INCHES ELSEWHERE IN THE
STATE INCLUDING THE GREEN MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT. THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS REPORTED ARE
NEAR EIGHT INCHES AT BALL MOUNTAIN LAKE... THE WEST RIVER AT
TOWNSHEND AND THE HARRIMAN RESERVOIR. THESE EQUIVALENTS ARE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN AREA...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 18 TO 36 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED ACROSS THE
MONADNOCKS NEAR GREENVILLE AND JAFFREY IN SOUTHERN CHESHIRE COUNTY.
SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS WERE NOTED APPROACHING THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY. SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE RANGE FROM 16 TO
24 INCHES. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM THREE TO SIX INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST EQUIVALENT REPORTED NEAR THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT
WOODSTOCK. THESE EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
NORTH TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTH.

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM TWO TO FOUR FEET ACROSS DOWNEAST
MAINE TO THE FOOTHILLS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE WEST. MUCH
HIGHER SNOW DEPTHS UP TO 6 FEET ARE NOTED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
MAINE NEAR MACHIAS AND EASTPORT. SNOW DEPTHS ACTUALLY DECREASE TO 10
TO 18 INCHES HEADING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH NEAR CARIBOU. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES...EXCEPT SIX TO 10 INCHES
ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE. SOME OF THE HIGHEST EQUIVALENTS ARE NOTED AT
THE BIG BLACK RIVER AT CLAYTON LAKE AND THE KENNEBEC RIVER AT WYMAN
DAM...AND LIKELY NEAR MACHIAS AND EASTPORT MAINE. SNOW EQUIVALENTS
ARE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
EQUIVALENTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS EAST AND DOWNEAST MAINE.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

OVERALL...GREATER THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE OCTOBER 2014
HAS KEPT ANTECEDENT MOISTURE STATES HIGH. THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT
SEVERITY INDEX FROM 14 FEBRUARY 2015...WHICH TAKES A LOOK AT
MOISTURE STATES FROM WEEKS TO MONTHS...SHOWS MUCH OF COASTAL EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH VERY MOIST TO EXTREMELY MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. THIS AREA ALSO EXTENDS INLAND TO INCLUDE CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW
YORK STATE ALSO ARE OBSERVING MOIST TO VERY MOIST CONDITIONS. A
LARGE AREA OF NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE STATES PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW YORK STATE AND FAR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES AS OF FEBRUARY 17 2005 INDICATED
DRIER THAN NORMAL SURFACE MOISTURE ANOMALIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. WETTER THAN NORMAL NEAR
SURFACE MOISTURE ANOMALIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY EASTERN MAINE. ELSEWHERE NEAR NORMAL SURFACE
MOISTURE ANOMALIES WERE NOTED.

EXAMINING GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION COURTESY OF
THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY. OVERALL DUE TO THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER...ACTUAL RUNOFF AND
FILTRATION HAS BEEN MINIMIZED SINCE LATE JANUARY.

IN NEW YORK STATE...MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING BELOW NORMAL TO
NEAR NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS. HOWEVER MOST LOCATIONS HAVE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS TO AID IN RECHARGING LEVELS.
ONE EXCEPTION AND POTENTIAL AREA OF CONCERN IS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
REGION OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE WHERE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE
LESS THAN NORMAL. SUNY PLATTSBURGH WAS REPORTING BELOW THE TENTH
PERCENTILE IN GROUNDWATER LEVELS AS OF FEBRUARY 16TH.

IN CONNECTICUT...MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING BELOW NORMAL
GROUNDWATER LEVELS...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL AT GREENWICH. HOWEVER NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE STATE WILL AID IN
RECHARGING CURRENT GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

IN RHODE ISLAND...LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING BELOW NORMAL GROUNDWATER
LEVELS. HOWEVER NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ACROSS THE STATE WILL AID IN RECHARGING CURRENT GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...MOST LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS. IN ADDITION ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS WILL AID IN RECHARGING CURRENT GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...GROUNDWATER LEVELS VARY BUT GENERALLY
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL. RECENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL
GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT FORT KENT AND BRUNSWICK MAINE AND BELOW NORMAL
GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT CLAYTON LAKE MAINE AND PEMBROKE NEW HAMPSHIRE.
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK WILL AID IN RECHARGING
GROUNDWATER LEVELS. ONE CONCERN AREA MAY NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN IN
VERMONT WHERE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL.

TAKING A LOOK AT WATER SUPPLY LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...THE NEW
YORK CITY RESERVOIR SUPPLY SYSTEM LEVEL AS OF FEBRUARY 18 2015 WAS
76.7 PERCENT OR 10.5 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. THE SCITUATE RHODE ISLAND
RESERVOIR LEVEL AS OF FEBRUARY 18 2015 WAS 86.6 PERCENT AND THE
RESERVOIR ELEVATION WAS 278.99 FEET. THIS LEVEL IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND FIVE FEET BELOW THE SPILLWAY LEVEL.
RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN IN MAINE ARE 59.8
PERCENT FULL WHICH IS 16.4 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. IN THE KENNEBEC
BASIN IN MAINE...BOTH THE BRASSUA LAKE AND FLAGSTAFF LAKE ARE ABOVE
NORMAL. MOOSEHEAD LAKE IN MAINE HAS A BELOW NORMAL LEVEL.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN ON A STEADY OR SLOW DECLINE ACROSS
THE REGION AS RUNOFF HAS BEEN MINIMIZED DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES AND
WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE ICE AFFECTED.

STREAMFLOWS IN NEW YORK STATE...CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND
AND MASSACHUSETTS WERE GENERALLY RUNNING BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.
STREAMFLOWS IN VERMONT AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WERE GENERALLY AVERAGING
FROM NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

IN MAINE THE RIVERS ARE ALMOST TOTALLY ICE COVERED WITH SOME OPEN
AREAS ON THE PISCATAQUIS AND SMALLER STREAMS. MOST OF THE MAINSTEM
RIVERS THAT HAVE ICE IS 1 TO 2 FEET THICK...HOWEVER THE LOWER
STRETCHES OF THE PENOBSCOT ARE LIKELY LESS THAN 1 FOOT THICK.

SEVERAL ICE JAMS REMAIN IN PLACE ON THE NORTHERN RIVERS. THE LARGEST
JAMS ARE ON THE SAINT JOHN RIVER IN SAINT FRANCIS...ABOUT 10 TO 15
MILES LONG...AND ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER IN WASHBURN ABOUT 5 TO 8
MILES LONG. ANOTHER ICE JAM IS LOCATED ON THE KENNEBEC AT MADISON.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ICE PREVAILS ACROSS THE STATE.
ICE THICKNESSES RANGE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ALONG THE EAST
BRANCH OF THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT LINCOLN AND THE LAMPREY RIVER
NEAR NEWMARKET.

IN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE...SOLID ICE COVER IS PRESENT
WITH JUST A FEW OPENINGS. USGS REPORTS ICE 1 TO 1.5 FEET THICK ACROSS
THE REGION.

...CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS NEAR THE 50 YEAR RETURN PERIOD
ARE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH MORE LIKELY CHANCES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

ADDITIONAL LOADING OF THE SNOWPACK IS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL OR MIXED PRECIPITATION OCCURS ON
SUNDAY FEBRUARY 22ND. THE HIGHER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS...MOIST
ANTECEDENT STATES AND INCREASING SUN ANGLE WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR FLOODING WITH TIME ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION IS
NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE. COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL HELP PRESERVE THE
SNOWPACK AND ICE IN PLACE.

REGARDING ICE JAM POTENTIAL...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ICE COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION BUT WE WILL NEED TO ESPECIALLY MONITOR AREAS OF
MAINE CLOSELY AS WE HEAD TOWARD SPRING. LARGE POCKETS OF ICE
REMAIN ALONG THE BANKS OF SEVERAL RIVERS DUE TO ICE MOVEMENT BACK IN
DECEMBER. ANY RAPID RUNOFF EVENTS AND DRAMATIC INCREASES IN FLOW
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ICE JAM PROBLEMS BUT MOST LIKELY
NOT IN THE NEAR TERM.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BRING
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT

                  ***WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/NERFC/SFPOG.HTML***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NERFC ON THURSDAY MARCH 5TH 2015.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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