Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Arkansas-Red Basin RFC

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Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma

958 AM CST, Wednesday, February 14, 2018



                          COLORADO

                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--



The Rocky Mountains



Snowpack totals are below average across Colorado, especially to

the south. The potential for flooding due to snowmelt is below

normal this spring. Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky

Mountains of Colorado is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or

isolated, high-intensity rainfall.



As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the

mountains of the Arkansas River basin received approximately 64

percent of the median precipitation and have accumulated 63 percent

of the median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is

included below. This water-year`s precipitation is about 54 percent

of last year`s at this time. SNOTEL locations across the area

generally show snow water equivalent amounts significantly below

normal. At the end of January, mountain reservoirs above Pueblo were,

on average, at 87 percent of capacity.  This represents 121 percent

of average storage and 115 percent of last year`s storage. Reservoirs

below Pueblo are at 153 percent of capacity, 206 percent of last

year`s storage, and 186 percent of the long-term average.





    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E



        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites

              As of Wednesday: February 14, 2018

-------------------------------------------------------------------

BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION

Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      %

                       Current  Median  Med.  Current  Median  Med

-------------------------------------------------------------------



ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN



APISHAPA         10000     1.3   5.2      25    4.6     8.2      56

BRUMLEY          10600     5.8   6.4      91    8.0     9.0      89

FREMONT PASS     11400    11.0  10.3     107   11.4    10.5     109

PORPHYRY CREEK   10760     7.8  10.5      74    6.2    10.3      60

SOUTH COLONY     10800     4.5  13.1      34    6.0    14.3      43

WHISKEY CK       10220     2.5   6.9      36    6.8    10.6      64

                                        -----                  -----

         Basin wide percent of average    63                     64



Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent

and Total Precipitation values



The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for late winter and

spring (FEB-MAR-APR) indicates increased chances (40%-50%) of above

normal temperatures across the southern half of Colorado. The

CPC Outlook also calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of below normal

precipitation across much of southern Colorado during the same period.



Current soil moisture estimates from the CPC are below normal in the

mountain headwaters of the Arkansas River, while soil moisture is

near normal across the high plains of Colorado.  Soil moisture

estimates for the end of January were below the 30th percentile in the

mountains and between the 30th and 70th percentiles in the plains.



The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of

flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary

of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.



            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

              As of Tuesday: February 14, 2017

               Feb 14 - Jun 14 50% Exceedence

    Weekly

     Flood         50% exceedence    50% exceedence

  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)

------------------------------------------------------------------

 Leadville     9.0                7.4                  6.9

 Salida        8.0                4.2                  3.6

 Wellsville    9.0                5.5                  4.7

 Parkdale      9.0                4.5                  3.8

 Canon City   10.0                7.5                  6.6

 Portland      9.0                4.6                  3.4

 Pueblo        8.0                6.2                  5.1



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that Moderate Drought (D1)

conditions are currently present across much of Eastern Colorado.

Severe Drought (D2) conditions are present in southern Colorado

near the New Mexico border. A small area in the central mountains

is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions. The US Seasonal

Drought Outlook shows drought conditions are expected to persist

or intensify across Colorado during the next 3 months.





The Southeastern Plains



The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring. Normal

conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of

flooding.



Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for

the area indicate near normal soil conditions in southeastern Colorado.

Soil moisture values in the 30th to the 70th percentile dominate that

part of the state.



The Arkansas River is generally flowing at near to above normal levels

downstream from Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at above

normal levels.



The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding greater

than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of flooding

during the next 120 days at four forecast points.



             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

               As of Tuesday: February 13, 2018



Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability

Station      Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding  Major Flooding

ID

ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected

LXHC2             30                  7           Not Expected

LAPC2             21                  4                 2

LMAC2              6            Not Expected      Not Expected



According to the U.S. Drought Monitor the plains of southeastern

Colorado are in Severe Drought (D2) or Moderate Drought (D1). The US

Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for persistence or intensification to

the drought conditions across the area during the next three months.



   *******************************************************

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   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

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SOUTHERN KANSAS



The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is near normal

this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific

precipitation events. Southern Kansas has been very dry for the last

several months, leading to a return of significant drought conditions,

especially across southwestern parts of the state.



Precipitation so far during the winter is significantly below average.

Although this is their dry season, amounts have been extremely low for

the southern half of the state during the past 90 days. Small parts of

the area received less than 5% of normal during that time period, with

most of southern Kansas seeing less than 25% of normal. Drought

conditions have deteriorated rapidly during the past 90 days.



According to the Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) estimates, soil

moisture across southwestern Kansas was between the 30th and

70th perncentiles. South-central and southeastern Kansas soil moisture

was in the 10th to 30th percentiles.



Streamflows across Kansas are near normal on the Arkansas River, while

they are significantly below normal on the remainder of the rivers across

the southern half of the state.



Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is near normal. U.S. Corps of

Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs in southern Kansas

currently have near 100 percent of their flood-control storage

available.



Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the

CPC`s outlook for southern Kansas calls for increased chances

(33%-40%) of above normal temperatures in southwestern Kansas, while

the southeastern part of the state is expected to see equal chances (33%)

of below, near, or above normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook

for the same period indicates a similar pattern with equal chances (33%)

of below, near, or above normal precipitation across the eastern half of

Kansas and increased chances (33%-40%) of below normal precipitation

across the western half of the state.



The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates Extreme Drought (D3)

conditions across parts of Southwest Kansas. Severe Drought (D2) is

also prevalent in the remainder of southwestern into southeastern Kansas.

Moderate Drought (D1) is indicated for the remainder of southern Kansas.

The CPC`s US Seasonal Drought Outlook for the next three months calls

for peristence or deterioration in the drought conditions across much of

southern Kansas through the end of April.



The table below indicates the probability of flooding for selected

western Kansas forecast points where the model indicates a greater

than five percent chance of minor flooding. Current model output indicates

that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are relatively low.

However, these low probabilities do not reflect extreme conditions and

indicate a near normal chance of flooding.



                   Select Points in Western Kansas

               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                As of Tuesday: February 13, 2018



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

ENWK1                12                   7            Not Expected

FRGO2                 6              Not Expected      Not Expected

ZENK1            Not Expected        Not Expected      Not Expected



The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas

forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10%

chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and in

the long term do not reflect an above normal potential for flooding.



        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas

               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                As of Tuesday: February 13, 2018



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

ALMK1               11                  6             Not Expected

ARCK1               28                  8             Not Expected

ARKK1               14                  6             Not Expected

ATOK1               29                  9             Not Expected

CBNK1               30            Not Expected        Not Expected

CFVK1               18                 10             Not Expected

CNUK1               39                 21                   6

COWK1               14            Not Expected        Not Expected

CTWK1               19                 11             Not Expected

DRBK1               10            Not Expected        Not Expected

EREK1               41                 36                  22

FLRK1               11                  2             Not Expected

FRNK1               32                  9             Not Expected

HAVK1                7                  3             Not Expected

HTCK1               42                 27                   3

HTDK1               11                  3             Not Expected

IDPK1               32            Not Expected        Not Expected

IOLK1               27                  9             Not Expected

MDKK1               12                  2             Not Expected

MULK1               13                  5                  3

OSWK1               49                 42                 15

OXFK1               18                  8             Not Expected

PECK1                7            Not Expected        Not Expected

PPFK1               49                 44             Not Expected

PLYK1               19                 15                  6

SEDK1               15                  7                  6

TOWK1               18                  8             Not Expected

WFDK1               19                 15                 11

EMPK1               21                 16             Not Expected

EPRK1               12                 11             Not Expected

LRYK1               18                 18             Not Expected

NEOK1               17                 15             Not Expected



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *       www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply            *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



SOUTHWEST MISSOURI



The potential for flood conditions in southwest Missouri is near

normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to

specific rainfall events. Therefore, current conditions do not

necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring

flooding.



It has been a relatively dry winter so far for Southwest Missouri,

with precipitation during the last 90 days running below average.

Much of southwestern Missouri received 25% to 75% of their normal

precipitation during the same period. Soil moisture in southwestern

Missouri is currently well below normal (10th to 20th percentiles).

Stream flow in that part of the state is also below normal for this

time of year.



Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR),

the Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) outlook for southwestern

Missouri calls for equal chances (33%) of above, below, or near

normal temperatures.  The outlook also indicates equal chances of

below, near, or above normal precipitation for the same period.



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates Moderate Drought (D1) and

Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across Southwest Missouri. The CPC`s

US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for persistence or deterioration

of drought conditions for the next three months.



The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points

where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor

flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an

above-normal potential for flooding.



                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri

                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                   As of Tuesday: February 13, 2018



Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability

StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

CHTM7               29                  9             Not Expected

TIFM7               26                  7             Not Expected

WCOM7               30            Not Expected        Not Expected

BXTK1               29                 12                  4



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *       www.weather.gov/abrfc/water_supply            *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



$$




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