Extended Streamflow Prediction
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COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
Jun 5, 2017

WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
    SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN


PRECIPITATION (% OF AVERAGE) AND SNOWPACK (% OF MEDIAN):

SUBBASIN                 MAY PRECIP     OCT-MAY PREC    JUN 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------    ---------------
ABOVE NAVAJO RES             110            120                -
ANIMAS                       115            110                -
LOWER SAN JUAN               100            120                -

******************************************************************************
OBSERVED STREAMFLOW SUMMARY (% OF AVERAGE):

                         MAY FLOW       OCT-MAY FLOW
----------------------   --------       ------------
BASIN AVERAGE                90%            110%

******************************************************************************
RESERVOIR STORAGE AS OF JUN 1:

RESERVOIR                % AVERAGE
---------------------    ----------
NAVAJO                      108
VALLECITO                   120
LEMON                       109

TOTAL                       109

San Juan River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Pagosa Springs           Apr-Jul    225   105    240    230    220    215    215
  Pagosa Springs           Jun-Jul     78    81     92     84     74     71     96
  Carracas, nr             Apr-Jul    390   103    405    395    385    380    380
  Carracas, nr             Jun-Jul    125    79    140    132    120    116    158
Rio Blanco River
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Apr-Jul     56   104     61     58     54     52     54
  Pagosa Springs, nr, Bla  Jun-Jul   17.5    76     23     20   16.0   14.0     23
Navajo River
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Apr-Jul     69   106     76     73     67     63     65
  Chromo, nr, Oso Div Dam  Jun-Jul     25    83     32     29   23.0   19.0     30
Piedra River
  Arboles, nr              Apr-Jul    205    98    215    210    200    196    210
  Arboles, nr              Jun-Jul     63    85     74     69     59     55     74
Los Pinos River
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Apr-Jul    205   106    225    215    200    195    194
  Vallecito Res, Bayfield  Jun-Jul     93    94    113    101     88     83     99
San Juan River
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Apr-Jul    710    97    760    735    700    685    735
  Navajo Res, Archuleta,   Jun-Jul    210    72    260    235    200    186    290
Florida River
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Apr-Jul     51    93     59     53     49     46     55
  Lemon Res, Durango, nr   Jun-Jul     24    89     32     26   22.0   19.0     27
Animas River
  Durango                  Apr-Jul    385    93    425    400    380    370    415
  Durango                  Jun-Jul    187    85    225    200    180    172    220
San Juan River
  Farmington               Apr-Jul   1040    95   1110   1080   1030   1010   1100
  Farmington               Jun-Jul    355    76    425    395    345    330    470
La Plata River
  Hesperus                 Apr-Jul     28   122     31     30     27     25     23
  Hesperus                 Jun-Jul   12.0   141   15.0   14.0   11.0    9.0    8.5
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul   1070    97   1150   1110   1050   1040   1100
  Bluff, nr                Jun-Jul    345    77    425    390    330    315    450
Mancos River
  Mancos, nr               Apr-Jul     38   123     41     39     36     35     31
  Mancos, nr               Jun-Jul   14.0   135   17.0   15.0   12.0   11.0   10.4

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/G. Smith



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