Flash Flood Guidance
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000
AWUS01 KWNH 070129
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070427-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0318
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
928 PM EDT MON JUL 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 070127Z - 070427Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS REDUCING AND SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE
SQUALL LINE.

DISCUSSION...WELL DEFINED QLCS DROPPING RAPIDLY OUT OF KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WITH WANING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING MOST
VIGOROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS DECREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WITH FALLING PRESSURES ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE... LOW LEVEL FLOW IS STILL MARGINALLY BACKED
ACROSS OKLAHOMA LEADING TO NEARLY PERPENDICULAR MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LINE. THIS IN
ADDITION TO FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE FRONT OUT OF THE
LOW IN TEXAS...SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS ALSO HUNG UP A BIT IN
WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED TOTALS NEARING HIGHER
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. IR SHOWS TOPS IN EXCESS OF -80C AND
WITH STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...CELLS ARE CAPABLE OF 2"/HR RATES WITH
TOTALS OF 2-3" POSSIBLE.   SO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL
POSSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY.

FURTHER EAST ALONG THE LINE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL FEEDER
BANDS SUPPORTED BY VWP NETWORK SHOW LOW LEVEL FLOW IS REDUCED TO
30KTS OR LESS AT 850MB AND BECOMING PARALLEL TO THE MCS SEVERELY
REDUCING CONVECTIVE EFFECTIVENESS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.  STILL
EXPANSION OF THE MODERATE SHIELD PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI WITHIN DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LONGER TERM FLOODING COMPOUNDING ANY
FLOODED STREAMS FROM INITIAL SQUALL LINE CONVECTION.

GALLINA

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   38569368 37419329 36689449 35389599 34739850
            35879951 36709840 37899643 38479534



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