Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 251955
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

...BREEZY WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY...WARMER...AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THROUGH TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
AND AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-260815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (260).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 27 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.11 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.35-0.51 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (400).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.12 IN.

$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-260815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT...EXCEPT 79-84 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1120).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.10 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....58-63.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.39-0.73 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.14 IN.

$$

MIZ020-025>027-260815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........86-91 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........62-67 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (920).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.12 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER...EXCEPT 10 DEGREES COOLER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.34-0.50 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 54-59 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.12 IN.

$$

MIZ031>033-260815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 27 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........65-70 PERCENT...EXCEPT 78-83 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (940).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.14 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.34-0.57 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (440).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.13 IN.

$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-260815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING TO
                    AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 30
                    MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 27 TO 33 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SHOWERS
                    AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........60-65 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.12 IN.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....59-64.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........94-99 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 18 TO 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.44-0.75 IN.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........59-64 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.14 IN.

$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...COOLER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMITH



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