Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 060948
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
548 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TODAY...RESULTING IN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY WEATHER...
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...
MAINLY AFTER 11 PM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...1 TO 2 INCHES
WORTH IN SOME AREAS...IS EXPECTED. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY...THOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL LINGER IN NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-062200-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
548 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 73-78 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT...EXCEPT 58-63 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (760).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL
                    2300...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 0300...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....61-66.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT UNCHANGED ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (110).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.30-0.51 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....67-72...EXCEPT 58-63 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.25 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-062200-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
548 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....84-89...EXCEPT 74-79 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........40-45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (790).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.41 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY UNTIL 1200. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
                    NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.31 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-062200-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
548 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88...EXCEPT 68-73 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2300...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....57-62.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 82-87 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.38-0.77 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....63-68.
   24 HR TREND......18 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (600).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.27 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-062200-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
548 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....82-87...EXCEPT AROUND 80 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (710).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.37-0.55 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0800...THEN CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....66-71...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......17 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........54-59 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-062200-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
548 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....83-88.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (850).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2300 UNTIL
                    0300...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.17-0.44 IN.

.TUESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY UNTIL 1200...THEN CHANCE
                    OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........56-61 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (330).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21-0.29 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ



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