Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 181906
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
306 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

...Gustiness diminishes tonight as a cold front crosses the region...

.DISCUSSION...Gusty southwest winds will continue this afternoon prior to
diminishing overnight into Thursday morning as a cold front crosses
crosses the region...also shifting winds more westerly. An expansive
area of high pressure centered well to our south gradually noses
into the region throughout the day Thursday...bringing somewhat less
gusty conditions and continued precipitation-free weather.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-190815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
306 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier...except 16 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (320).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent...except 45-50 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1130).
Mixing Height.......4400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....67-72.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 52-57 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 5 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (650).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-190815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
306 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (160).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (1080).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 52-57 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (530).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-190815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
306 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 16 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 20 mph decreasing to
                    around 10 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 45
                    mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (310).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 24 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (850).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except 9 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-190815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
306 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 20 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent...except 43-48 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (750).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 88-93 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 20 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent...except 55-60 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (760).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-190815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
306 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....46-51.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (110).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 20 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (940).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 6 mph increasing to around 18
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

MG



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