Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 311922
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...A DRY OVERNIGHT GIVES WAY TO AN INCREASING THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD RECEIVE WELL UNDER A HALF INCH OF RAIN BY THE TIME RAINS
END LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE EXPERIENCED TODAY...INCREASING AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES A TOUCH MORE ELEVATED.
WINDS DO BECOME A TOUCH GUSTY OUT OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
WEDNESDAY.

THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A COOL AND
SHOWERY PERIOD OF WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-010815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......27 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (620).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.03-0.20 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......22 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.15-0.22 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....72-77...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (950).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-010815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT...EXCEPT 69-74 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 59-64 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (270).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.16-0.24 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........43-48 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1050).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-010815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........71-76 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......28 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (90).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 53-58 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (370).
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.11-0.27 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........91-96 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......23 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (40).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.10-0.17 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74...EXCEPT 52-57 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (800).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-010815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......24 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 0800 UNTIL 1400. CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 0800. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78...EXCEPT 64-69 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........51-56 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-70 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
                    GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (430).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.20 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). NUMEROUS RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 0200. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-57.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 5 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT...EXCEPT 81-86 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (50).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.08-0.17 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........48-53 PERCENT...EXCEPT 62-67 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 3 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (860).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-010815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
322 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....48-53.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......18 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER
                    0800 UNTIL 1400...THEN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....74-79.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (680).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.02-0.12 IN.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). SCATTERED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL 0200. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 2000
                    UNTIL 0200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....53-58.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........93-98 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.14-0.21 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....73-78.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1080).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

MSB



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