Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 271310
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for FAPH Rx Fire...US Army, DPW-ENRD-Forestry
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
810 AM EST Mon Feb 27 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on February 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure slides offshore today ahead of a warm front, which
lifts through the region tonight into Tuesday. Broad southwest flow
will allow temperatures to warm well above normal Tuesday and
Wednesday. A strong cold front approaches from the west Wednesday
and crosses the region Wednesday night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2100-2900 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 1 to 8 mph...increasing to 12 to 17 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............80  81  81  80  80  79  77  75  79
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................42  48  51  55  58  59  60  59  58
RH..................50  42  37  34  30  29  28  29  32
20 FT wind dir......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......4   5   5   5   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.....10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  10
Mix hgt (kft).......1.0 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.1
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....8   12  14  15  16  17  17  16  13
LVORI...............2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI.................11  18  25  32  37  39  40  38  26
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate kt-ft/1000....7   14  22  31  39  42  43  41  23

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Mixing height.......300-1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 9 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............82  85  78  72  65  66  66  67  67  67  67  59
Weather cov.........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type........                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov............
Temp................54  51  50  49  49  48  48  48  48  48  48  48
RH..................38  44  48  52  54  58  58  60  63  65  68  68
20 FT wind dir......S   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd......4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.....10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......1.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.....9   6   5   3   3   3   3   5   5   5   5   3
LVORI...............2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI.................6   4   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20
Haines index........5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate kt-ft/1000....10  2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). A chance of
                    showers...mainly in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL...increasing to 2100-2800 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph...increasing to south
                    around 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............51     49     62     71     75     74
Weather cov.........S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov............
Temp................48     51     59     65     68     69
RH..................71     68     60     52     51     53
20 ft wind..........S 2    S 2    S 5    S 6    SW 6   SW 6
20 ft wind gust.....5      5      10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)........300    700    1500   2100   2600   2800
Transport wind......S 3    S 5    SW 9   S 13   S 18   S 23
LVORI...............3      3      2      1      1      1
ADI.................3      5      18     33     40     54
Chc of pcpn (%).....20     20     20     20     30     30
Haines index........4      4      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/1000....1      3      12     24     41     57

$$
Forecaster...SCALORA
Requested by...Chris McClelland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702981.0/AKQ
.EMAIL christopher.s.mcclelland.civ@mail.mil



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