Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FNUS74 KAMA 171915
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Givens Fire...Amarillo OEM
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
115 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1400 CST on November 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Current RH values between 10-15% are expected to continue into the
afternoon hours. RH values will rise above 30% as we go past 10
PM. Winds will be gusting over 40 MPH at times straight through
the afternoon into evening hours with winds being persistent out
of the west and southwest. Winds will diminish to around 15-20 MPH
as we go towards midnight tonight. Clouds will begin to clear out
as we go later in the day today into the evening hours. A cold
front will work its way through and winds will shift to northerly
around 6 AM tomorrow morning.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. Southwest winds 21 to 26 mph. Gusts up
                    to 44 mph early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500-5000 ft AGL decreasing to 2000 ft AGL late
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 33 to 41 mph decreasing to around 23 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (144000 knot-ft) decreasing to good
                    (40000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      2 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0
LAL.............1
Temp............81
RH..............15
20 FT wind......W 25G44
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0
Transp wind dir.W
Transp wind spd.41
Haines index....5
VRate kt-ft/1000144

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 14 to 21 mph.
Mixing height.......0-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 10 to 18 mph shifting to the northwest 20
                    to 22 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (0 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY        PCLDY        MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............71           60           60
RH..............23           33           36
20 FT wind......SW 17G25     SW 16G24     W 21G32
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5          0.1          0.5
Transp wind dir.W            SW           W
Transp wind spd.15           12           18
Haines index....2            2            3
VRate kt-ft/10007            0            8

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 15 to 24 mph with gusts to around
                    39 mph decreasing to 9 to 13 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-1500 ft AGL increasing to 2500-4000 ft AGL
                    early in the morning, then increasing to
                    3500-5000 ft AGL late in the morning decreasing
                    to 2000 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....North 24 to 30 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph
                    early in the morning, then decreasing to 21 to
                    30 mph early in the afternoon becoming
                    northeast 7 to 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (10500-39000 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (80000 knot-ft) early in the
                    morning, then increasing to excellent (99000
                    knot-ft) in the late morning and early
                    afternoon decreasing to excellent (70000
                    knot-ft) early in the afternoon decreasing to
                    poor to good (12000-35000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR       MCLEAR       CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE         NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0            0            0
LAL.............1            1            1
Temp............44           44           54
RH..............47           39           24
20 FT wind......N 20G29      N 23G37      N 15G23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5          4.0          5.0
Transp wind dir.N            N            N
Transp wind spd.24           39           21
Haines index....3            3            4
VRate kt-ft/100011           136          90

$$
Forecaster...Meccariello
Requested by...NWS
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1718964.0/AMA



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