Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 242219
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Lost Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
619 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1900 EDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989) 732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Near-critical to critical RH values across portions of
northern Michigan...will make a decent recovery tonight as temperatures
cool back into the 40s. A slight uptick in low-level moisture is forecast
for Tuesday, which will result in RH values above critical thresholds.

East-southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the forecast
period...gradually taking on a more southerly component throughout the
day Tuesday. Winds will again become gusty at times Tuesday, as soon
as late morning at the fire site.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Temperature.........62 at ignition...Min 42.
RH..................36 percent at ignition...Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 7 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph .
Mixing height.......2600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 2600-4000
                    ft AGL decreasing to 500-1400 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 15 mph.
Vent rate...........Good /400 at ignition. Min...poor /100/.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (EDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........15  17  17  21  23  25  28  30  39  49  53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............62  58  52  49  47  46  45  44  43  42  42
RH..............36  42  54  63  68  71  73  73  76  79  79
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   5   5
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  14  14  14  15  15  14  14  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
VRate/100.......4   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Temperature.........Max 66.
RH..................Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......500-1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 13 mph.
Vent rate...........Poor to fair (100-200).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........63  73  78  76  73  72  71  69  69  68  68  68
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............42  43  45  48  53  57  60  62  63  65  66  66
RH..............82  82  79  74  64  57  53  52  52  48  47  47
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  13  12  12  12  13  13  13  12  12
Haines index....3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
VRate/100.......1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...Jeff Zoltowski
Requested by...Kevin Marino
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707697.0/APX


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