Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FNUS74 KBMX 281913
FWSBMX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MCDILL PT...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
213 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1900 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 28.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REDUCED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS...AS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF COAST HAVE ESSENTIALLY
CUT OFF CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM MOST OF THE RAINFALL. OVER THE CHEAHA
WILDERNESS...RAINFALL SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY TODAY. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY
LESS THAN 0NE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND RH VALUES WILL BE HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TRANSPORT WINDS OUT OF THE EAST.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5500 FT AGL.
DISPERSION INDEX....22 INCREASING TO 31 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      2 PM   4 PM
SKY.............CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............76     78
RH..............66     62
20 FT WIND......NE 5   E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20
MIX HGT (FT)....5500   4900
DISPERSION......22     21
TRANSPORT WIND..110/7  110/7

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1900...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100-3700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1700 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....29 DECREASING TO 8.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 12 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY.............CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............73     70     67     66     66     66
RH..............76     84     90     93     93     90
20 FT WIND......E 2    E 1    NE 2   NE 2   NE 2   NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5      <5     5      5      5      5
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     60     60     60     60     60
MIX HGT (FT)....3700   2500   1700   1200   1000   900
DISPERSION......33     25     20     9      7      6
TRANSPORT WIND..110/9  110/12 120/12 110/10 100/8  090/7

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78.
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
                    LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0700...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-6100 FT AGL.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 31 LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY.............CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............66     66     69     70     71     72
RH..............90     90     82     81     76     71
20 FT WIND......NE 2   NE 3   NE 6   E 5    E 5    NE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     10     10
CHC OF PCPN (%).60     40     40     40     40     40
MIX HGT (FT)....700    1300   2800   4700   5900   6000
DISPERSION......6      5      6      31     34     30
TRANSPORT WIND..070/7  060/8  050/9  050/10 040/10 030/9

$$
FORECASTER...GGOGGINS
REQUESTED BY...SCOTT LAYFIELD
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140928.MCDIL.01/BMX






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