Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 181213
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Spruce Creek Pile Burn...BLM
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
513 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 MST on January 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Warm temperatures aloft will maintain an inversion
today. As a result, mixing will be shallow and smoke dispersal
will remain poor. On Friday, there will be more wind aloft and
while mixing will still be limited, smoke dispersal will be
better. There will be another small increase in mixing on Saturday
ahead of a weather system that will bring light to moderate
snowfall late Saturday into Sunday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 1200, then partly
                    cloudy(30-40%).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 35.
Min humidity........29%.
Wind (20 ft)........South 3-6 mph becoming west 5-8 mph by 1200.
Mixing height.......Rising to 2000 FT AGL by 1200.
Transport winds.....West 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy(30-40%).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 18.
Max humidity........65%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5-8 mph.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 39.
Min humidity........46%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7-13 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......Below 1000 FT AGL until 1000, then 1400-2400 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20-30 mph until 1100, then west 30-35
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1100, then fair until 1300, then
                    good until 1600, then fair.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s. Highs
in the upper 30s. Southwest winds 7-13 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Colder. Snow likely. Lows around 17. Highs in the mid 20s. West
winds 7-13 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows around 10. Highs in the mid
20s. West winds 6-10 mph.


Fire Weather Table for Spruce Creek Pile Burn.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

01/18-07 24  0  0 12 64 WSW  5  5 2 1          544   W  7  3350 P
01/18-08 28  0  0 14 58   W  5  5 2 1          527   W  7  3016 P
01/18-09 28  0  0 18 49   W  5  5 2 1          668   W  7  4129 P
01/18-10 29  0  0 23 38   W  3  3 2 1          809 WNW  8  5370 P
01/18-11 29  0  0 28 34   W  6  6 2 1          950 WNW  8  6740 P
01/18-12 30  0  0 32 30   W  6  6 2 1         1133   W  9  8813 P
01/18-13 30  0  0 34 29   W  6  6 2 1         1315   W  9 11138 P
01/18-14 32  0  0 35 29 WSW  7  7 2 1         1497 WSW 10 13713 P
01/18-15 37  0  0 34 32 WSW  7  7 2 1         1211 WSW 10 10520 P
01/18-16 38  0  0 32 34 WSW  7  7 2 1          925 WSW  9  7597 P
01/18-17 42  0  0 29 42 WSW  7  7 2 1          639 WSW  9  4945 P
01/18-18 39  0  0 27 48 WSW  7  7 2 1          631 WSW  9  5071 P
01/18-19 38  0  0 24 52  SW  7  7 3 1          623  SW  9  5193 P
01/18-20 36  0  0 22 57  SW  7  7 3 1          616  SW 10  5310 P
01/18-21 36  0  0 21 59  SW  7  7 3 1          614  SW 10  5710 P
01/18-22 36  0  0 20 62 SSW  8 13 2 1          612  SW 12  6108 P
01/18-23 39  0  0 19 65 SSW  8 13 2 1          610  SW 13  6503 P
01/19-00 39  0  0 19 62 SSW  8 14 2 1          597  SW 13  6553 P
01/19-01 39  0  0 18 64 SSW  9 15 2 1          583  SW 13  6594 P
01/19-02 26  0  0 18 62 SSW  8 13 2 1          569  SW 14  6626 P
01/19-03 26  0  0 18 64 SSW  9 14 2 1          588  SW 15  7482 P
01/19-04 26  0  0 19 59 SSW  9 15 2 1          608 WSW 16  8378 P
01/19-05 13  0  0 19 57  SW  6  6 2 1          627 WSW 17  9316 P
01/19-06 14  0  0 21 54  SW  6  6 2 1          594 WSW 18  9453 P
01/19-07 15  0  0 21 52  SW  6  6 2 1          562 WSW 20  9522 P
01/19-08 16  0  0 22 52  SW  6  6 2 1          529 WSW 21  9779 P
01/19-09 16  0  0 26 50  SW  8 13 2 1          910 WSW 24 19308 P
01/19-10 15  0  0 31 49  SW 10 16 2 1         1290 WSW 28 30930 P
01/19-11 15  0  0 35 47  SW 12 18 2 1         1670 WSW 31 44645  F
01/19-12 17  0  0 38 46  SW 13 21 2 1         1911 WSW 32 54064  F
01/19-13 19  0  0 39 46  SW 13 21 2 1         2153 WSW 35 64232   G
01/19-14 21  0  0 39 46  SW 14 22 2 1         2394 WSW 36 75148   G
01/19-15 25  0  0 38 48  SW 14 22 2 1         2233 WSW 35 66538   G
01/19-16 29  0  0 36 50  SW 14 22 2 1         2073 WSW 32 58440  F
01/19-17 33  1  0 35 50  SW 13 21 2 1         1912 WSW 31 50856  F
01/19-18 34  1  0 33 51  SW 12 18 2 1         1672 WSW 28 40674  F
01/19-19 35  1  0 32 51  SW 12 18 2 1         1432 WSW 25 31584 P
01/19-20 36  1  0 31 53 SSW 10 16 2 1         1193 WSW 23 23585 P
01/19-21 37  1  0 30 56 SSW 10 16 2 1         1163 WSW 22 22157 P
01/19-22 38  1  0 30 58 SSW 12 18 2 1         1133  SW 21 20772 P
01/19-23 39  3  1 30 58 SSW 12 18 2 1         1103  SW 21 19430 P
01/20-00 42  3  1 29 60 SSW 12 18 2 1         1107  SW 20 19203 P
01/20-01 44  3  1 29 60 SSW 12 18 2 1         1111  SW 20 18974 P
01/20-02 47  3  1 28 63 SSW 12 18 2 1         1114  SW 20 18743 P
01/20-03 50  3  1 28 63 SSW 12 18 2 1          989  SW 20 16665 P
01/20-04 52  3  1 28 66 SSW 10 16 2 1          863  SW 20 14577 P
01/20-05 55 14  3 27 68 SSW 10 16 2 1          737  SW 20 12480 P
01/20-06 57 14  3 26 71 SSW 10 16 2 1          760  SW 20 12618 P
01/20-07 61 14  3 25 71 SSW 10 16 2 1          783  SW 18 12740 P
01/20-08 63 14  3 25 71 SSW 10 16 2 1          806  SW 18 12848 P
01/20-09 65 14  3 28 66 SSW  9 15 2 1         1435  SW 22 27321 P
01/20-10 68 14  3 31 63 SSW 10 16 2 1         2063  SW 25 45693  F
01/20-11 69 44 21 34 59 SSW 12 18 2 1         2692  SW 29 67964   G
01/20-12 70 44 21 36 56 SSW 13 20 2 1         2905  SW 31 79483   G
01/20-13 71 44 21 36 56  SW 13 21 2 1         3118  SW 33 91904   G
01/20-14 72 44 21 35 59  SW 13 21 2 1         3330  SW 37105225    V
01/20-15 76 44 21 34 61  SW 12 18 2 1         3079  SW 31 84250   G
01/20-16 83 44 21 33 64  SW 10 16 3 1         2827  SW 26 65405   G
01/20-17 87 56 32 31 66  SW  8 13 3 1         2575  SW 22 48690  F
01/20-18 87 56 32 29 66  SW  8 13 3 1         2223  SW 20 37586 P
01/20-19 86 56 32 27 68  SW  8 13 2 1         1870  SW 17 27890 P
01/20-20 85 56 32 26 65  SW  7  7 2 1         1518  SW 15 19603 P
01/20-21 86 56 32 25 65  SW  7  7 2 1         1559  SW 15 19786 P
01/20-22 89 56 32 24 68  SW  7  7 2 1         1600 WSW 14 19951 P
01/20-23 90 65 45 23 71  SW  7  7 2 1         1641 WSW 14 20097 P
01/21-00 90 65 45 21 74 WSW  7  7 2 1         1682 WSW 14 20226 P
01/21-01 89 65 45 19 77 WSW  7  7 2 1         1723 WSW 14 20336 P
01/21-02 88 65 45 17 80 WSW  7  7 2 1         1764 WSW 14 20428 P
01/21-03 89 65 45 17 80   W  6  6 2 1         1973   W 13 21460 P
01/21-04 90 65 45 18 80   W  6  6 2 1         2183  NW 12 22196 P
01/21-05 91 60 38 18 84 WNW  6  6 3 1         2392 NNW 10 22636 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD
REQUESTED BY...CW Portell
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800458.1/BOU



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