Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FNUS75 KBOU 141237
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
532 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA
TODAY.  SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY 1100 AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.  SMOKE
DISPERSAL WILL BECOME GOOD BY 1200.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 48.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH
                    UNTIL 1100...THEN NORTHWEST 9-13 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 35 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4400-5400 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-15 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN NORTHWEST
                    AROUND 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN
                    DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 2300-3100 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 0400.

.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(30-40%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0800...THEN
                    WEST 8-9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN 25-30
                    MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. GOOD AFTER 1100.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60.
TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-10 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BEAR MOUNTAIN.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

02/14-05 30  0  0 32 43 SSW 13 22 4 1 WNW 40  1169  SW 10 10382 P
02/14-06 30  0  0 31 45 SSW 13 21 4 1 WNW 43  1273 WSW 10 11630 P
02/14-07 30  0  0 32 45 SSW 12 20 3 1 WNW 44  1376   W 10 12932 P
02/14-08 35  1  0 34 43 SSW 12 20 3 1 WNW 44  1479   W 12 14288 P
02/14-09 35  1  0 37 41  SW 13 22 3 1 WNW 39  2408   W 14 28570 P
02/14-10 35  1  0 41 37   W 14 24 3 1  NW 35  3337   W 16 46949  F
02/14-11 46  4  1 45 34 WNW 15 25 3 1  NW 32  4266 WNW 18 69424   G
02/14-12 46  4  1 47 32 WNW 14 23 3 1  NW 35  4674 WNW 20 80196   G
02/14-13 46  4  1 48 32 WNW 12 21 2 1 WNW 40  5081 WNW 21 91689   G
02/14-14 45  8  2 48 33  NW 10 17 2 1 WNW 46  5489 WNW 22103904    V
02/14-15 45  8  2 47 34 WNW 10 17 2 1 WNW 51  5309 WNW 21 96362   G
02/14-16 45  8  2 45 37 WNW 10 17 2 1  NW 55  5128 WNW 20 89101   G
02/14-17 59  9  2 43 39 WNW 10 17 2 1  NW 58  4948  NW 20 82120   G
02/14-18 59  9  2 41 42 WNW 10 17 2 1  NW 59  4333  NW 18 70103   G
02/14-19 59  9  2 38 47   W 10 17 3 1  NW 59  3718  NW 18 58602  F
02/14-20 59  9  2 36 50 WSW  9 16 3 1 NNW 56  3104  NW 17 47615  F
02/14-21 59  9  2 35 51 WSW  8 13 3 1 NNW 53  2973  NW 18 48548  F
02/14-22 59  9  2 34 52   W  6  6 2 1 NNW 49  2843  NW 20 49223  F
02/14-23 29  5  1 34 52   W  5  5 2 1 NNW 46  2713  NW 21 49642  F
02/15-00 29  5  1 33 53   W  6  6 2 1 NNW 41  2654  NW 22 49815  F
02/15-01 29  5  1 32 54 WSW  7  7 2 1 NNW 39  2595  NW 22 49933  F
02/15-02 29  5  1 31 56 WSW  8 14 2 1 NNW 40  2536  NW 23 49996  F
02/15-03 29  5  1 30 58 WSW  8 14 2 1 NNW 47  2409  NW 20 41496  F
02/15-04 29  5  1 30 58 WSW  8 13 2 1 NNW 55  2282  NW 17 33628 P
02/15-05 29  2  0 30 56 WSW  7  7 2 1 NNW 61  2155 WNW 14 26393 P
02/15-06 29  2  0 31 58 WSW  7  7 2 1 NNW 60  2285 WNW 15 30081 P
02/15-07 29  2  0 33 56 WSW  8 13 3 1 NNW 56  2415 WNW 16 34009 P
02/15-08 29  2  0 36 52 WSW  8 13 3 1 NNW 51  2545 WNW 17 36979 P
02/15-09 29  2  0 39 48 WSW  8 14 3 1 NNW 46  2980 WNW 21 53506  F
02/15-10 29  2  0 43 42   W  9 14 3 1 NNW 41  3415  NW 24 73013   G
02/15-11 34  2  0 47 37   W  9 15 3 1 NNW 37  3850  NW 29 95500   G
02/15-12 34  2  0 49 35   W  9 16 3 1 NNW 33  4173  NW 26 96516   G
02/15-13 34  2  0 51 34 WNW 10 16 3 1 NNW 31  4496 WNW 24 96448   G
02/15-14 34  2  0 51 35 WNW 10 16 3 1 NNW 29  4819 WNW 23 95297   G
02/15-15 34  2  0 50 36 WNW 10 16 3 1 NNW 36  4733 WNW 23 93054   G
02/15-16 34  2  0 48 38   W  9 14 2 1  NW 43  4647 WNW 23 90830   G
02/15-17 37  3  1 46 40   W  8 13 2 1  NW 49  4561 WNW 22 88626   G
02/15-18 37  3  1 44 43   W  7  7 2 1 NNW 46  3967 WNW 22 74022   G
02/15-19 37  3  1 42 45 WSW  7  7 2 1 NNW 43  3372 WNW 21 60332   G
02/15-20 37  3  1 40 48 WSW  7  7 2 1   N 39  2777 WNW 20 47556  F
02/15-21 37  3  1 39 49 WSW  8  8 2 1 NNW 37  2319 WNW 20 39864 P
02/15-22 37  3  1 38 51 WSW  8 14 3 1 NNW 35  1860 WNW 20 32109 P
02/15-23 25  2  0 38 50 WSW  9 15 3 1 NNW 32  1402 WNW 20 24290 P
02/16-00 25  2  0 37 52 WSW  9 15 3 1 NNW 33  1280 WNW 18 20240 P
02/16-01 25  2  0 36 54 WSW  9 15 4 1 NNW 33  1158 WNW 16 16559 P
02/16-02 25  2  0 35 56 WSW  9 15 4 1 NNW 33  1036 WNW 15 13247 P
02/16-03 25  2  0 35 55 WSW  9 14 4 1 NNW 30   965 WNW 15 12133 P
02/16-04 25  2  0 34 57 WSW  8 14 5 1  NW 26   894 WNW 14 11048 P
02/16-05 20  2  0 34 56 WSW  8 13 5 1  NW 24   823 WNW 14  9994 P
02/16-06 20  2  0 34 57 WSW  8  8 5 1  NW 20   949 WNW 14 11098 P
02/16-07 20  2  0 35 55 WSW  7  7 4 1 WNW 15  1075 WNW 13 12089 P
02/16-08 20  2  0 38 50 WSW  7  7 4 1 WNW 12  1200 WNW 13 12966 P
02/16-09 20  2  0 41 45 WSW  7  7 3 1 WNW 14  2008 WNW 12 19377 P
02/16-10 20  2  0 46 38 WSW  7  7 3 1   W 16  2816 WNW  9 23930 P
02/16-11 16  0  0 50 33 WSW  7  7 2 1   W 18  3623 WNW  8 26624 P
02/16-12 16  0  0 53 29   W  7  7 3 1   W 22  4223 WNW 12 41557  F
02/16-13 16  0  0 55 26   W  6  6 4 1 WNW 25  4822 WNW 14 59481  F
02/16-14 16  0  0 56 24   W  6  6 5 1 WNW 30  5422 WNW 17 80394   G
02/16-15 16  0  0 56 24   W  6  6 4 1 WNW 36  5254 WNW 17 78751   G
02/16-16 16  0  0 54 25   W  5  5 4 1  NW 41  5087 WNW 17 77056   G
02/16-17 12  2  0 51 27   W  5  5 3 1  NW 47  4920 WNW 17 75307   G
02/16-18 12  2  0 47 31   W  6  6 4 1  NW 45  3829 WNW 16 53621  F
02/16-19 12  2  0 43 35 WSW  6  6 4 1  NW 43  2738   W 15 34778 P
02/16-20 12  2  0 39 41 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 39  1648   W 13 18778 P
02/16-21 12  2  0 37 43 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 36  1407   W 13 15465 P
02/16-22 12  2  0 37 43 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 32  1167 WNW 13 12348 P
02/16-23 14  1  0 37 42 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 29   927 WNW 12  9428 P
02/17-00 14  1  0 36 43 WSW  7  7 5 1  NW 28   870 WNW 12  8632 P
02/17-01 14  1  0 36 42 WSW  8 13 4 1  NW 25   812 WNW 12  7863 P
02/17-02 14  1  0 35 43 WSW  8 13 4 1  NW 23   754 WNW 10  7123 P
02/17-03 14  1  0 35 43 WSW  8 13 4 1  NW 23   839   W 10  7373 P
02/17-04 14  1  0 34 44 WSW  7  7 3 1  NW 24   925   W  9  7511 P
02/17-05 17  0  0 34 43 WSW  7  7 3 1 WNW 24  1010   W  8  7537 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...RPK
REQUESTED BY...TOM MCCOLLUM
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160214.BEARM.01/BOU


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