Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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592
FNUS76 KEKA 031752
FWSEKA

SPOT FORECAST FOR BIG FLAT F-18...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
952 AM PST WED FEB 3 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 PST ON FEBRUARY 03.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY ITEM OF INTEREST THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE THE
ARRIVAL OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
RIDGETOP WINDS TO THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM...AND
STEADILY INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT BUT ENOUGH TO QUALIFY AS A WETTING
RAIN...WITH TOTALS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM .50 TO .75 INCHES IN THE
VALLEY...TO PERHAPS NEAR ONE INCH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS EVENT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO STEADILY INCREASE ALONG
THE RIDGETOPS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND GUSTS TO 45 OR 50 MPH
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE HIGHEST EXPOSED RIDGES
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR WILL BE MUCH MORE PROTECTED AND WILL NOT SEE WIND
SPEEDS NEARLY THIS STRONG. HOWEVER...A FEW ROGUE GUSTS TO 20 OR 30
MPH WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THE BURN SITE. WIND SPEEDS
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES...AND WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND DOMINATED BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAYS...AND LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD
                    LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....47 TO 50.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 TO 80 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 6 TO 11 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 17 MPH.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 TO 3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 19 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO 8 TO 13 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................1...THEN 2 IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................81 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........WIDESPREAD RAIN DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
                    DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS DIMINISHING
                    LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34 TO 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 7 MPH.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1200 TO 1300 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 6 TO 9 MPH.
LAL.................1.
CWR.................67 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52 TO 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........60 TO 70 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 3 TO 6 MPH...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY TERRAIN INFLUENCE.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4300 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 MPH.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 3 TO 8 MPH...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO SOUTHWEST
                    DURING THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY TERRAIN INFLUENCE.
LAL.................1.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...CHARBONEAU
REQUESTED BY...DOUGLAS DENLINGER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160203.BIGFL.01/EKA



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