Suppression Forecast
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228
FNUS74 KEPZ 282049
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Round Fire...USFS
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
249 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0700 MDT on June 29.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
Drier air has moved in from the west which will put an end to the
showers and thunderstorms for at least a few days. Temperatures will
be warming back to around 100 degrees for many lowland locations
through early next week. Relative humidities will be falling back
into the upper single digits to lower teens. There will be a little
surge in moisture going into the weekend and early next week with
isolated thunderstorms returning. Winds will be occasionally breezy
the next couple of days and again early next week which will bring
about near critical conditions.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....84-85.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 13 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph.
Mixing height.......5800 ft AGL increasing to 9200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (76100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........36     36     36     36     36     36
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............55     68     77     81     84     85
RH..............33     20     15     12     11     10
20 ft wind......W 13   W 12   W 11   W 11   W 11   W 11
20 ft wind gust.25     25     20     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....5800   5800   5800   9200   9200   9200
Transport wind..W 16   W 22   W 16   W 12   W 10   W 12
Haines index....3      3      3      4      5      5
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....52-53.
Max humidity........31-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL decreasing to 200 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (88600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (1600
                    knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........7      7      7      7      7      7
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............83     75     67     62     59     54
RH..............11     14     19     23     26     32
20 ft wind......W 11   W 11   W 11   W 11   W 11   W 11
20 ft wind gust.20     20     20     20     20     20
Mix hgt (ft)....8300   8300   8300   200    200    200
Transport wind..W 13   W 12   W 10   W 9    W 9    W 8
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....85-87.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming southwest
                    5 to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......7900 ft AGL increasing to 14000 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 4 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (29100-56700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........36        36        36        36
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............53        69        83        86
RH..............33        18        12        10
20 FT wind......NW 10G20  NW 6G10   N 2G5     W 4G5
Mix hgt (ft)....7900      7900      14000     14000
Transport wind..NW 8      NW 13     W 3       SW 5
Haines index....5         5         5         6
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR


.EXTENDED FORECAST
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs around 90.
West winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. West winds around
5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Northwest winds
around 5 mph.

$




$$
Forecaster...NOVLAN
Requested by...Brian Anderson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711796.0/EPZ
.EMAIL beanderson@fs.fed.us



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