Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 171912
FWSEPZ

SPOT FORECAST FOR NOGAL RX...NM-MEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX
1212 PM MST TUE JAN 17 2017

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 MST ON JANUARY 17.

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORM SYSTEMS WILL MARCH THROUGH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
AREA TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.


&&

...PERCENTAGES SHOWN IN THE SKY/WEATHER PORTION REFLECT
SKY COVER AMOUNT...

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). ISOLATED SNOW
                    SHOWERS LATE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED SNOW
                    SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40.
MIN HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE MORNING BECOMING
                    LIGHT...THEN BECOMING WEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7050 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      1 PM   3 PM
SKY (%).........85     85
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).50     50
LAL.............1      1
TEMP............31     32
RH..............85     78
20 FT WIND......S 3    W 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....4700   4700
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3   SW 3
HAINES INDEX....3      3
VENT RATE.......POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 25.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH EARLY
                    IN THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 KNOTS SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6300 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
SKY (%).........85     85     85     80     80     80
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  NONE   NONE   NONE
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).20     20     20     10     10     10
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
TEMP............30     28     27     27     27     26
RH..............85     88     92     96     92     96
20 FT WIND......NW 3   NW 3   W 3    W 4    W 5    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....2600   2600   2600   500    500    500
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 3   NW 3   NW 3   W 8    W 8    W 8
HAINES INDEX....3      2      2      2      2      2
VENT RATE.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 38.
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
                    MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-3400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13 TO 14 KNOTS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (36850 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (MST)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
SKY (%).........53        53        48        48
WEATHER COV.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
TSTM COV........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10        10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
TEMP............27        25        37        38
RH..............92        100       67        62
20 FT WIND......W 8G20    W 9G20    W 9G20    W 10G25
MIX HGT (FT)....1800      1800      3400      3400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 11      W 11      W 16      W 16
HAINES INDEX....2         2         2         2
VENT RATE.......POOR      POOR      FAIR      FAIR

$$
FORECASTER...NOVLAN
REQUESTED BY...WILMER LAPAZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1700481.0/EPZ
.EMAIL NMADC@FS.FED.US


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