Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FNUS74 KEWX 241339
FWSEWX

Spot Forecast for Camp Bullis 3...USFWS
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
739 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

...NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND BREEZY WINDS...

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Low relative humidity values and strong northwest to north winds
behind a dry line and cold front will produce critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the Rio Grande Plains and
Edwards Plateau late this morning into the afternoon hours. The rest
of South Central Texas will have near critical conditions with
slightly lower wind speeds. Rapid fire growth and spread will
likely occur in cured fuels...such as dry grasses. Winds will be
out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 15. Relative
humidity values should fall below 20 percent by early afternoon and
remain below those levels until around sunset. Good relative humidity
recovery is expected overnight with maximum value in the middle 60s
percent. Minimum relative humidity will be close to 30 percent
Saturday afternoon with cooler temperatures. Rain chances return
Sunday and Monday of next week when an upper level disturbance moves
across the area.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........59 at ignition...Max 80.
RH..................55 percent at ignition...Min 15 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 7 to 8 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 7 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 7 to 8
                    mph increasing to 10 t0 12 mph by late morning.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 200-1100 ft
                    AGL increasing to 2800-4500 ft AGL late in the
                    morning, then decreasing to 1700 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 18 mph shifting to the north
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition increasing
                    to 6 by 9AM.

TIME (CST)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  9   7   5   3   3   4   4   4   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............59  63  67  72  75  78  80  80  79  77
RH..............55  43  33  24  21  18  16  15  16  18
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
20 FT wind spd..7   9   11  12  12  12  11  10  8   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   5   7   7   7   7   7   6   5   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  20  20  20  20  20  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.2 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.5 3.6 1.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  14  16  18  20  18  17  15  13  9
Haines index....5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Min 42.
RH..................Max 65 percent.
Eye level winds.....North winds 5 to 7 mph until early morning
                    becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph until early morning
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......100-700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 0 to 7 mph.
Haines Index........6 decreasing to 4 or high potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth decreasing to or low.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........3      1      0      1      4      5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............73     63     54     50     47     44
RH..............21     31     43     48     53     57
20 ft wind......N 6    N 4    N 3    N 4    N 5    N 5
20 ft wind gust.       5      5      5
Eye level wind..N 4    N 2    N 2    N 2    N 3    N 3
Eye lvl wnd gst.       5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....700    400    100    100    100    200
Transport wind..N 7    N 3    N 1    N 0    N 0    N 0
Haines index....6      6      5      5      5      4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 65.
RH..................Min 30 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph early in
                    the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......300-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2400-3600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Northeast 0 to 8 mph shifting to the east 10 to
                    15 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      4      5      6      5      6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............42     44     50     58     63     65
RH..............62     65     54     37     31     31
20 ft wind......N 6    NE 7   NE 8   NE 6   E 6    E 6
20 ft wind gust.       10     15     10
Eye level wind..N 4    NE 4   NE 5   NE 4   E 4    E 4
Eye lvl wnd gst.       10     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1100   1700   2700   3300   3300
Transport wind..N 0    NE 5   NE 10  NE 15  NE 15  E 13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...05
Requested by...Jeffrey Adams
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702801.0/EWX
.EMAIL Jeffrey_adams@fws.gov



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