Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FNUS74 KFWD 271458
FWSFWD

SPOT FORECAST FOR MORGAN RANCH...TEXAS A&M FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
958 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0941 CDT ON JULY 27.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES EXIST THIS MORNING, BUT THE BETTER THREAT
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING WITH
ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS UNLIKELY. TOWARDS THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE UPWARDS TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BOSQUE COUNTY. THIS DOES
NOT GUARANTEE RAIN AND STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE SLOW MOVING. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT NEARBY STORMS PRODUCE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION
AT THE WILDFIRE SITE AND MAY IN FACT PRODUCE ONLY GUSTY OUTFLOW
AND DRY LIGHTNING WHICH MAY CAUSE ADDITIONAL ISSUES. THE
PROBABILITY FOR THIS OCCURRING IS LOW...BUT WILL BEAR MONITORING.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7900-8500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
MAX HAINES INDEX....4 (LOW).

TIME (CDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........53     58     62     64     67
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............80     85     91     93     94
RH..............79     61     49     46     44
20 FT WIND......S 2    S 4    S 4    S 4    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 1    S 2    S 2    S 2    S 2
MIX HGT (FT)....2100   4300   6800   7900   8200
TRANSPORT WIND..S 8    S 9    S 8    S 8    S 9
HAINES INDEX....3      3      4      4      4

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.
MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 7 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500-7800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 13 MPH.
MAX HAINES INDEX....4 (LOW).

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........68     67     62     57     57     62
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............93     89     82     80     77     76
RH..............46     54     69     74     82     87
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5    S 5
20 FT WIND GUST.
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 2    S 2    S 2    S 2    S 2    S 2
MIX HGT (FT)....7800   5200   700    700    700    700
TRANSPORT WIND..S 10   S 12   S 10   S 13   S 13   S 13
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      3      3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
                    BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7600-8700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 17 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 7
                    MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX HAINES INDEX....4 (LOW).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........67     69     68     67     66     65
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............74     77     83     89     92     94
RH..............90     82     70     56     49     43
20 FT WIND......S 5    S 5    SW 6   SW 6   SW 5   SW 2
20 FT WIND GUST.       10     10     10            5
EYE LEVEL WIND..S 2    S 2    SW 3   SW 3   SW 2   SW 1
MIX HGT (FT)....600    1000   1800   5600   7900   8700
TRANSPORT WIND..S 12   S 14   SW 17  SW 16  SW 12  SW 8
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      4      4

$$
FORECASTER...BAIN
REQUESTED BY...SARAH BROOKS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160727.MORGA.01/FWD



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