Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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638
FNUS74 KFWD 221324
FWSFWD

Spot Forecast for Pecan Springs Ranch...Texas Parks and Wildlife
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
824 AM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
With abundant Gulf moisture, relative humidity values will remain
above 45 percent this afternoon. South winds will be considerably
lighter than recent days`. Morning clouds will eventually give way
to sunshine this afternoon.

More sunshine and deeper mixing on Thursday will drop afternoon
relative humidity values below 40 percent. This, combined with an
approaching storm system, will result in a significant increase in
wind speeds. Wind gusts at 20 feet will likely exceed 30 mph
Thursday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms may bring a wetting rain to the region
late Thursday night into Friday. Dry air and breezy conditions
will then invade, and without sufficient rainfall, high fire danger
would result Friday afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming south 6 to 9 mph in the late morning
                    and afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-2100 ft AGL increasing to 4700-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 17 mph increasing to 18 to 20 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........77  75  69  65  59  55  50  45  41
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............65  67  70  73  76  79  81  82  82
RH..............90  87  78  73  66  58  54  51  51
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.    10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.3 4.0 4.7 5.5 5.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.12  14  15  16  17  18  18  20  20
Haines index....3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......3600-5200 ft AGL decreasing to 300-2200 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........36  32  29  27  25  27  28  30  36  42  48  60
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............81  79  76  74  72  70  69  69  68  67  66  65
RH..............53  56  62  64  66  71  73  73  78  81  84  87
20 FT wind dir..S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..8   7   6   5   5   6   7   7   8   9   9   10
20 FT wind gust.10  10                  10  10  10  10  10  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 5.0 3.6 2.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  17  15  13  10  10  13  14  15  16  17  17
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Mixing height.......200-1800 ft AGL increasing to 4600-6100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 23 mph increasing to 38 to 40 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........73  85  77  69  60  52  43  35  32  30  27  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............64  64  65  66  69  72  76  79  82  83  84  84
RH..............90  90  87  81  73  66  56  50  44  43  40  38
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  12  13  14  16  17  18  18  18  18  17
20 FT wind gust.15  15  20  20  25  30  30  30  30  30  30  30
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.8 4.6 5.3 6.1 5.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  21  23  28  31  33  36  38  39  39  39  40

$$
Forecaster...Fano
Requested by...Jay Whiteside
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1704897.0/FWD
.EMAIL jay.whiteside@tpwd.texas.gov



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