Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FNUS73 KGID 051157
FWSGID

SPOT FORECAST FOR JOHNSON RX...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
657 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CDT ON MAY 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY:
CONTINUED SUNNY AND "GUARANTEED DRY" WEATHER...WITH HARDLY A
CLOUD IN SIGHT. HOWEVER...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND DIRECTION MORE VARIABLE (ESPECIALLY THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON) THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS IN THE AREA. IF
YOU NEED A RELIABLE/CONSISTENT WIND DIRECTION FOR BURNING...TODAY
MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE! ALTHOUGH IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
FOR US TO "PRECISELY" FORECAST HOUR-TO-HOUR WIND DIRECTION/SPEED
ON SUCH A LOCALIZED SCALE GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
AREA...GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD FEATURE A
LIGHT/VARIABLE (MAYBE MAINLY WESTERLY?) REGIME WITH SPEEDS
NEAR/BELOW 7 MPH. THEN THIS AFTERNOON...A SOMEWHAT MORE CONSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED. AGAIN
THOUGH...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...PLAN FOR TRICKY HOUR-TO-HOUR
WIND DIRECTION ISSUES. OTHERWISE...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH)
IS FORECAST AROUND 27 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS ALSO
CARRIES A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AND COULD SEE IT DEVIATING 5 PERCENT
ABOVE/BELOW DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE DEWPOINTS RISE.
MIXING HEIGHTS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT 6-7 THOUSAND FEET AGL.

THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
CONTINUED DRY. BREEZES GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.

FRIDAY:
THIS IS THE LAST "GUARANTEED DRY" DAY FOR A WHILE. WINDS
WILL BE STEADIER/BREEZIER FROM THE SOUTH AT GENERALLY 10-20
MPH/GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW RH VALUES TO HOLD UP CLOSER TO 35
PERCENT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78 NEAR 5 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 27 PERCENT NEAR 5 PM (COULD EASILY BE SLIGHTLY
                    LOWER OR HIGHER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS)
WIND (20 FT)........VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING GENERALLY
                    BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING FROM AROUND 300-1400 FT AGL THIS
                    MORNING...THEN AS HIGH AS 5500-6800 FT AGL THIS
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....GENERALLY SOUTH 6 TO 13 MPH BUT EXPECT SOME
                    VARIABILITY.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........2      3      3      4      4      5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............43     55     68     74     77     78
RH..............76     57     39     30     28     28
20 FT WIND......W 2    SW 3   SW 4   S 5    S 5    S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      10     10     10     15
HAINES INDEX....5      6      6      5      6      5

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52 NEAR 7 AM.
MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT NEAR 7 AM.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHERLY AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING FROM 2800-4300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    TO AROUND 300 FT AGL LATER IN THE NIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........6      7      9      11     13     15
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............75     67     60     57     55     53
RH..............32     43     58     62     66     74
20 FT WIND......S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6    S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....4      5      6      6      6      5

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81 NEAR 5 PM.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 37 PERCENT NEAR 5 PM.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS
                    UP TO 25 MPH
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING FROM AROUND 300-2000 FT AGL IN THE MORNING
                    TO 3000-4100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH IN THE MORNING
                    THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 18 TO 26 MPH IN THE
                    LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........17     14     14     18     18     21
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............53     62     71     76     79     81
RH..............74     60     49     43     39     37
20 FT WIND......S 6    S 9    S 10   S 10   S 10   S 10
20 FT WIND GUST.15     20     20     25     25     20
HAINES INDEX....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$

FORECASTER...NWS/PFANNKUCH
REQUESTED BY...ANDY SCHELL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160505.JOHNS.01/GID



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