Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FNUS73 KICT 161330
FWSICT

SPOT FORECAST FOR TALLGRASS EAST MOP UP...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
830 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0816 CDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH GUSTING TO NEAR 45 MPH WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER 2 PM CDT. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE NORTH AND ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO RAPIDLY RECOVER.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........BREEZY. SOUTH WINDS 18 TO 27 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 45 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 19 TO
                    28 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH LATE IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO 14 TO 16 MPH WITH
                    GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700-1700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6700-7800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 44 TO 49 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND
                    DECREASING TO 21 TO 29 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
SKY (%).........31  32  32  32  32  36  41  45  49  53  58
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............51  54  58  61  62  65  67  68  68  67  66
RH..............46  40  35  30  29  28  26  24  24  26  29
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT WIND SPD..18  20  22  22  22  22  20  18  15  13  11
20 FT WIND GUST.40  40  45  45  45  45  40  35  35  30  25
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.7 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.4 6.1 6.7 7.3 7.8 8.4
MIXNG WIND DIR..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
MIXNG WIND SPD..48  49  49  49  47  44  39  33  29  24  21
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
HAINES INDEX....4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MAX HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                    AROUND 25 MPH.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 6 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 18 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST 16 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........58     65     72     79     86     93
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............64     55     50     47     44     41
RH..............29     42     52     59     65     71
20 FT WIND......SW 10  W 8    NW 6   N 6    NE 7   NE 7
20 FT WIND GUST.25     15     15     15     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)....8400   3000   400    600    800    900
MIXNG WIND......W 18   W 21   NW 21  N 16   NE 16  NE 17
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
HAINES INDEX....6      5      4      5      4      3

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55.
MIN HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.
CWR.................15 PERCENT.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 8 TO 17 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 6 TO
                    8 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM      10 AM     1 PM      4 PM
SKY (%).........100       99        99        81
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RAIN      RAIN      RAIN      RAIN
TEMP............39        46        52        54
RH..............76        60        49        45
20 FT WIND......NE 8G15   N 7G15    N 6G10    NE 5G10
MIX HGT (FT)....900       1800      2100      2800
MIXNG WIND......NE 17     NE 14     NE 9      E 6
CWR.............20        20        20        20
HAINES INDEX....3         3         4         5

$$
FORECASTER...MCGUIRE
REQUESTED BY...KRISTEN HASE
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20140416.TALLG.01/ICT






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