Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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000
FNUS72 KJAX 131123
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR WATSON PRAIRIE EAST...SJRWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
623 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON FEBRUARY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...LOWER HUMIDITY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY...

.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WHICH USHERS IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ON BREEZY NW WINDS
TODAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS INLAND BUT FUEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIN RH`S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS BECOME MORE
ONSHORE.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER 30S WELL INLAND WHERE PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FROST IS POSSIBLE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........55 AT IGNITION...MAX 60.
RH..................49 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 26 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 15 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    NORTH WINDS 7 TO 15 MPH.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 800-2700 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 2300-3600 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 16 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 22 EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 33 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 25 LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.

TIME (EST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........2      1      1      1
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............55     58     60     60
RH..............49     36     29     26
20 FT WIND......N 15   N 14   N 14   N 12
20 FT WIND GUST.25     20     20     15
DISPERSION IDX..33     37     34     35
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 35.
RH..................MAX 89 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5
                    MPH LATE IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....15 DECREASING TO 5.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........0      0      1      1      2      4
WEATHER COV.....                                   PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   FROST
TSTM COV........
TEMP............54     46     43     41     39     37
RH..............35     51     62     65     70     79
20 FT WIND......N 6    N 3    N 5    N 3    N 2    N 2
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5             5      5      5
DISPERSION IDX..15     4      5      5      5      4
LVORI...........2      2      3      3      3      4
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FROST EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 65.
RH..................MIN 43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 6 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300-4200 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 7 TO 14 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 24 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 40 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
                    TO 49 IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 34.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........6      5      17     17     29     40
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FROST  FROST  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV........
TEMP............36     37     50     60     65     65
RH..............85     89     61     47     43     45
20 FT WIND......N 2    NE 6   NE 9   E 9    E 9    E 9
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     15     15     15     15
DISPERSION IDX..3      11     37     48     50     44
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...PETERSON
REQUESTED BY...JEREMY OLSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20160213.WATSO.01/JAX


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