Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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FNUS71 KLWX 171125
FWSLWX

Spot Forecast for SHC Rx Burn...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
625 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on November 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will build overhead today and tonight...bringing dry
and seasonably chilly conditions. Northwest winds this morning will
gradually diminish this afternoon. A warm front will move near the
region Saturday morning followed by a strong cold front Saturday night.
These fronts will bring chances for rain showers and gusty winds Saturday
and Saturday night.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent), then becoming
                    mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph in the morning,
                    becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......1100-2400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 17 mph, becoming west 2 to 6 mph
                    late.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (2300-32900 knot-ft).

TIME (EST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........45     36     20     28     35
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0
TEMP............38     44     47     51     44
RH..............64     49     43     37     51
20 FT WIND......W 6    NW 6   NW 4   W 3    SW 3
20 FT WIND GUST.8      8      6      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2300   2400   2300   1900   1100
MIXNG WIND......NW 16  NW 15  NW 10  W 6    W 2
VRATE KT-FT/100032     31     21     10     2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). A slight chance
                    of rain showers after midnight.
CWR.................10 percent, increasing to 20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds.
Mixing height.......100-600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 2 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (200 knot-ft).

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........46     50     47     61     68     76
WEATHER COV.....                            S CHC  S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
CWR.............0      10     10     10     20     20
TEMP............42     40     38     37     37     35
RH..............57     62     67     70     70     78
20 FT WIND......S 2    SE 2   SE 3   S 3    SE 3   S 3
20 FT WIND GUST.
MIX HGT (FT)....600    100    100    100    100    100
MIXNG WIND......S 2    S 2    SE 2   SE 2   E 2    E 2
VRATE KT-FT/10001      0      0      0      0      0

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). A slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning, then rain
                    showers likely mid to late morning. A chance of rain
                    showers in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent, increasing to 70 percent, then
                    decreasing to 50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming south 5 to 6
                    mph with gusts to around 14 mph late in the
                    morning.
Mixing height.......100-800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 10 mph, increasing to 12 to 13 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (200 knot-ft).

TIME (EST)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........88        96        96        91
WEATHER COV.....S CHC     LIKELY    LIKELY    CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
CWR.............20        70        70        50
TEMP............35        42        50        52
RH..............78        70        63        66
20 FT WIND......SE 3      S 4G6     S 5G6     S 6G13
MIX HGT (FT)....100       400       700       700
MIXNG WIND......SE 2      S 7       S 10      S 12
VRATE KT-FT/10000         3         7         7

$$
Forecaster...Muccilli
Requested by...Gabe Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718944.1/LWX


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