Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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FNUS76 KMFR 180439
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Chetco Bar...USFS
National Weather Service Medford OR
939 PM PDT Thu Aug 17 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0800 PDT on August 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...Continued gusty northeast winds through Saturday night...
...Poor humidity recovery with gusty northeast winds possible
Saturday night...

.DISCUSSION...Persistently moderate to strong northeast winds will
affect the upper portions of the fire through Saturday. There will be
an increase in humidity some from Friday to Saturday afternoon and this
will bring humidity recoveries into the moderate range at the ridgetops.
Additionally, stability will increase across the fire Friday and
Saturday compared to Thursday. Lower slopes should continue to be
affected by terrain driven upslope/downslope flows while the upper
slopes and ridges will be affected by the moderate to strong northeast
winds. Further out, of particular concern is Saturday night when
overnight humidity could combine with gusty northeast winds to
bring critical fire conditions.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Areas of smoke.
Max temperature.....85-90.
Min humidity........18-22 percent.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Lower slopes: Upslope 1 to 3 mph with gusts to 5 mph.
Upper slopes and ridgetop: Northeast 3 to 5 mph with
gusts to 8 mph shifting slightly to north-northeast
at same speeds in the afternoon.
WIND (20 FT)........Lower slopes: Upslope 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
Upper slopes and ridgetop: Northeast 10 to 15 mph
with gusts to 25 mph shifting slightly to north-northeast
at sames speeds in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 2500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 15 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear. Areas of smoke.
Min temperature.....55-60.
Max humidity........45-55 percent.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Lower slopes: Downslope 0 to 2 mph.
Upper slopes and ridgetop: Northeast winds 2 to 4 mph with
gusts to 7 mph.
WIND (20 FT)........Lower slopes: Downslope 1 to 3 mph.
Upper slopes and ridgetop: Northeast winds 8 to 12 mph with
gusts to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL overnight.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 18 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Areas of smoke.
Max temperature.....82-88.
Min humidity........22-26 percent.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....Lower slopes: Upslope 1 to 3 mph with gusts to 5 mph.
Upper slopes and ridgetop: Northeast 3 to 5 mph with
gusts to 8 mph shifting slightly to north-northeast
at same speeds in the afternoon.
WIND (20 FT)........Lower slopes: Upslope 4 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
Upper slopes and ridgetop: Northeast 12 to 18 mph
with gusts to 25 mph shifting slightly to north-northeast
at sames speeds in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL increasing to 3000 ft AGL early
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 20 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY...
Clear. Areas of smoke. Lows 55 to 61. Highs 84 to 94. Northeast
winds 10 to 20 mph. Max RH: 25 to 35 percent. Min RH: 20 to 25 percent.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Areas of smoke. Lows 57 to 63. Highs 84 to 94.
Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Areas of smoke. Lows 57 to 63. Highs 81 to 91.
Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...KEENE
Requested by...Greg Titus
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1714540.0/MFR



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