Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FNUS72 KMHX 231247
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Spot Forecast for Ronoake Marsh...USFWS
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
847 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will build in from the northwest today then slide
offshore Friday. The high will remain offshore through the
weekend with the next frontal system approaching the middle of
next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 46.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 12 to 16 mph.Gusts to 22 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 3400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North-northeast 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 68000 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 3.
ADI.................Max 51.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.50 to 30.62 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............9   8   7   7   6   6   5   4   3
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............36  39  41  43  44  45  45  45  45
RH.................52  49  50  53  47  40  40  45  45
20 FT wind dir.....NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE
20 FT wind spd.....16  16  16  16  16  15  13  12  11
20 FT wind gust....20  20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......2.0 2.6 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8
Transp wind dir....NE  NE  N   N   NE  NE  NE  N   N
Transp wind spd....22  22  21  20  17  16  15  14  13
LVORI..............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2
ADI................42  48  51  49  45  41  37  33  29
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..43  56  67  63  59  55  47  41  36
Stability class....D   D   D   C   C   C   C   C   C

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Min temperature.....Around 34.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph until early
                    morning...becoming light.
Mixing height.......Min 300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 3 to 12 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 919 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 8.
ADI.................Min 2.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.57 to 30.62 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............4   5   5   6   7   9   10  11  12  12  13  14
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............44  42  40  39  38  38  37  37  36  36  35  35
RH.................49  53  59  62  67  67  70  72  79  82  92  96
20 FT wind dir.....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd.....9   8   7   6   6   5   5   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust....15  10  10                  5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......2.2 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd....12  12  10  9   9   8   8   8   8   7   5   3
LVORI..............1   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   5   6   8
ADI................31  7   7   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   2   2
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..26  17  9   6   4   2   2   2   2   2   1   1
Stability class....B   B   B   B   B   B   F   F   F   F   F   F

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 10 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 4700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 1 to 5 mph...increasing to south 9 to 17
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Max 70725 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 10.
ADI.................Max 63.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.46 to 30.57 inHg.

TIME (EDT)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............15     16     18     21     26     23
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............35     36     47     55     59     60
RH.................100    100    79     64     55     58
20 ft wind.........E 3    E 2    SE 4   S 6    S 7    S 9
20 ft wind gust....5             5             15     15
Mix hgt (ft).......300    300    1800   3200   4700   4300
Transport wind.....E 2    E 1    S 9    S 14   SW 14  S 16
LVORI..............10     10     3      1      1      1
ADI................1      1      20     46     55     63
Haines index.......4      4      4      4      4      5
VRate mph-ft/1000..0      0      16     44     64     70
Stability class....F      F      F      B      B      B

$$
Forecaster...Merrell
Requested by...Bert Plante
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705038.0/MHX
.EMAIL amy_midgett@fws.gov



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