Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FNUS72 KMHX 211244
FWSMHX

Spot Forecast for Pea Island Burn...ALR
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
744 AM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on February 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast, contact the National Weather
Service in Newport at (252)223-2328.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will extend over the area from the north today.
The high will slide offshore Wednesday through Friday. A cold front
will move through the area on Saturday. High pressure will build in
Sunday into early next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......Max 3000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northeast 8 to 12 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 28059 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 28.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.18 to 30.27 inHg.

TIME (EST)         10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)............27  29  32  34  41  55  62  62
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............51  54  56  57  58  58  58  57
RH.................77  69  66  64  62  62  62  64
20 FT wind dir.....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd.....10  9   9   9   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust....15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)......2.0 2.4 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.0 1.7
Transp wind dir....NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd....9   9   8   8   8   8   8   8
LVORI..............4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
ADI................10  12  16  19  27  27  28  22
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..2   10  17  24  26  27  28  19
Stability class....E   E   C   C   B   C   C   C

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening...becoming
                    light...then becoming south around 5 mph late.
Mixing height.......Min 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 8 mph.
Vent Rate...........Min 919 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Min 2.
Haines index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.07 to 30.18 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)............61  61  63  67  69  70  72  73  72  69  67  64
Weather cov........
Weather type.......
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............56  55  54  53  53  53  52  52  52  51  51  51
RH.................69  72  74  80  80  80  83  83  83  89  89  89
20 FT wind dir.....NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 FT wind spd.....8   7   6   5   5   4   3   3   3   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust....15  10  10          5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)......1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Transp wind dir....NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
Transp wind spd....8   7   6   5   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5
LVORI..............3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
ADI................8   6   5   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
Haines index.......4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate mph-ft/1000..10  2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Stability class....C   C   C   C   C   B   F   F   F   F   F   F

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny.
Max temperature.....Around 65.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......Max 4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 2 to 5 mph.
Vent Rate...........Max 11500 mph-ft.
LVORI...............Max 6.
ADI.................Max 9.
Haines index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Sfc pressure........30.00 to 30.08 inHg.

TIME (EST)         6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%)............61     61     64     66     67     67
Weather cov........
Weather type.......NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov...........
Temp...............51     53     59     62     64     64
RH.................89     83     72     65     60     63
20 ft wind.........S 3    S 1    S 1    S 3    S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust....5                    5
Mix hgt (ft).......1000   1500   2500   3500   3500   2500
Transport wind.....SE 3   SE 3   SE 3   SE 2   SE 2   S 3
LVORI..............6      5      3      3      3      3
ADI................4      4      4      9      7      9
Haines index.......4      4      5      5      5      4
VRate mph-ft/1000..1      1      1      7      9      12
Stability class....F      F      F      B      C      C

$$
Forecaster...Collins
Requested by...Bert Plant
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702541.0/MHX
.EMAIL _midgett@fws.gov


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