508
FNUS73 KMKX 011203
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Silverwood...Dane County Parks
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
703 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 01.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

West winds and gusts are expected to accelerate as solar heating
continues, obtaining gusts to around 32 mph at the time of
ignition, beginning a gradual turn to the northwest in the
afternoon. Gusts as high as 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Mixing
heights expected to top off around 3000 ft today, possibly as low
as 2500 ft if the approaching upper altitude clouds exceed the
expected sky coverage (expecting up to 50% coverage in the mid
afternoon). Expecting RH to fall from 63% at ignition to a daily
minimum of 31% in the afternoon, though it could fall as low as
27% if cloud cover is lower than expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Temperature.........63 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................52 percent at ignition...Min 31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds west at 15 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    West winds 9 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 32 mph
                    decreasing to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....West 24 to 31 mph shifting to the northwest 17
                    to 21 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /50900 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /70000 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18  28  36  36  50  47  44  47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  63  64  66  68  69  70  69
RH..............52  47  43  38  34  33  32  35
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..15  15  16  16  14  13  11  9
20 FT wind gust.25  26  26  26  24  21  19  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.0 2.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.29  31  31  30  28  24  21  17
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100051  68  70  70  66  60  47  36

$$
Forecaster...BS
Requested by...Lars Higdon
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412889.0/MKX
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL higdon.lars@countyofdane.com