Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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057
FNUS73 KPAH 151417
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for TPL...USFS
National Weather Service Paducah KY
817 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on December 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Increased moisture will improve fire danger conditions today. However
gusty west winds will pose an increased hazard especially this afternoon.
In contrast moisture will be up from previous days with minimums in the
40s today. There will also be an elevated inversion around 5k feet which
will prevent any particulates from lifting above that altitude. This
inversion will lower to near the surface overnight.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........33 at ignition...Max 43.
RH..................68 percent at ignition...Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds west 5 to 10 mph. early in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...increasing to 4000-5900
                    ft AGL late in the morning,
Transport winds.....West 6 to 14 mph increasing to 14 to 21 mph
                    late in the morning, then decreasing to around
                    9 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0
Temp............33     38     42     43     39
RH..............68     58     53     52     59
20 FT wind dir..W      W      W      W      SW
20 FT wind spd..6      8      10     10     6
20 FT wind gust.10     15     15     15     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   4100   5800   5400   2200
Transp wind dir.W      W      W      W      W
Transp wind spd.10     17     21     18     9
Haines index....3      3      3      4      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 30.
RH..................Max 82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......400-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR CLEAR  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............36     34     33     32     31     30
RH..............65     70     74     77     80     82
20 FT wind dir..SW     SW     SW     SW     S      S
20 FT wind spd..5      5      5      6      7      7
20 FT wind gust.                     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....800    500    700    700    700    900
Transp wind dir.W      SW     SW     SW     SW     SW
Transp wind spd.6      6      7      8      9      9
Haines index....3      4      5      5      4      4

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds 7 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......1300-2600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph shifting to the south 15
                    to 22 mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  CLEAR  MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............30     34     42     50     55     52
RH..............83     76     61     49     41     45
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..7      10     13     14     15     14
20 FT wind gust.10     15     15     20     20     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1300   1300   1500   2100   2600   2200
Transp wind dir.SW     SW     SW     SW     SW     S
Transp wind spd.12     16     20     22     22     18
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4

$$
Forecaster...HOOPER
Requested by...Tyson Taylor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1720018.0/PAH
.EMAIL tysontaylor@fs.fed.us



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