Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

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FNUS76 KSEW 311721
FWSSEW

SPOT FORECAST FOR ORFANIDES SAR...MOUNT RAINIER NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
1021 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 0952 PDT ON MAY 31.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SEATTLE.

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER MOUNT RAINIER...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE MOISTURE IS MAINLY
10000 FEET AND ABOVE WHICH IS RIGHT IN THE SEARCH AREA. THE CLOUDS
WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
FREQUENT PERIODS WHERE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN WILL
BE OBSCURED IN CLOUDS. THIS WOULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR AVIATION OPERATIONS. NOTE THE FREE AIR WINDS IN THE
FORECAST BELOW FOR WINDS ALOFT FOR AVIATION OPS.

THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES
BUT ACCUMULATION WILL BE SLIGHT.

THE FLOW ALOFT MAY BE A LITTLE DRIER TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD MAKE THE CLOUD COVER AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION JUST
ABOUT CONTINUOUS AS WELL AS PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW.

THERE COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT
LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MOUNT RAINIER IS SMALL.

 FORECAST FOR 20 FOOT WIND SPEED (VALLEYS AND RIDGE TOPS) ARE 10
 MINUTE AVERAGES REFLECTING RAWS WINDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 23.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......WEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
 FREE AIR WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 40 MPH.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
                    EVENING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 18.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.
 FREE AIR WINDS.....SOUTH 30 MPH.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.14 INCHES.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 18.
WIND (20 FT)........
 SLOPE/VALLEY.......NORTHEAST WINDS 3 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST 7 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
 FREE AIR WINDS.....SOUTH 20 MPH.
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.39 INCHES.

$$
FORECASTER...KAM
REQUESTED BY...EVERETT PHILLIPS
TYPE OF REQUEST...SAR
.TAG 20150531.ORFAN.01/SEW





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