Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FNUS74 KTSA 152039
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for Ranch House...Choctaw Nation Forestry
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
239 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 CST on February 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)838-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move through Southeast Oklahoma late Thursday
night with a small chance of light rain into the early morning
hours Friday. Behind the front...much colder temperatures and
breezy northerly winds are forecast during the day Friday.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Dewpoint............39 decreasing to 33 early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 7 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......800-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 29 to 32 mph becoming northeast 15 to 16
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5400 knot-ft).
Stability class.....3.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).45.

TIME (CST)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  89  89  90  88  86
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  49  50  50  50  50
Dewpoint........33  32  31  31  31  31
RH..............56  52  48  48  48  48
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..14  12  10  8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.20  20  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.26  24  22  18  16  15
VRate kt-ft/1K..6   6   6   6   6   6
1700FT Mix T(F).44  42  42  42  41  42

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain in the
                    evening, then occasional rain after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Dewpoint............32.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 6 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......100-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 14 mph shifting to the south 2
                    to 3 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (100 knot-ft).
Stability class.....6.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).44.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83  84  86  87  98  98  99  99  100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  45  44  43  42  42  41  40  40  39  39  39
Dewpoint........31  31  31  32  32  33  33  33  33  33  34  34
RH..............51  58  60  65  67  70  73  76  76  79  82  82
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   4   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   3   2
20 FT wind gust.10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.14  10  6   3   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
VRate kt-ft/1K..2   2   2   2   2   2   0   0   0   0   0   0
1700FT Mix T(F).42  43  43  44  45  45  45  46  46  46  46  46

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Occasional rain in the
                    morning.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Dewpoint............37.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 6 mph in the
                    afternoon, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1000 ft AGL increasing to 2100-3900 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then decreasing to 1900 ft
                    AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 1 to 10 mph shifting to the northwest 7 to
                    14 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3000 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).49.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........100 99  99  98  96  95  94  90  83  75  68  60
Weather cov.....OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL OCL
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............38  38  38  41  45  48  51  53  54  55  55  54
Dewpoint........35  35  36  36  37  38  39  39  39  39  38  38
RH..............89  89  92  82  73  68  63  59  57  55  53  54
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   3   4   6   7   7   8   8   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 2.1 3.1 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.0 1.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   SW  W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.2   1   1   2   6   10  14  14  13  10  9   7
VRate kt-ft/1K..3   3   3   3   3   3   7   7   7   7   7   7
1700FT Mix T(F).46  47  47  47  47  46  48  50  51  52  52  51

$$
Forecaster...JANKOWSKI
Requested by...Sam McFarland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1802023.0/TSA
.EMAIL smcfarland@choctawnation.com


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