Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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003
FNUS74 KTSA 241318
FWSTSA

Spot Forecast for OKRD_Blackjack East...USFS
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
718 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 CST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact NWS Tulsa at (918)838-7838, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Winds will shift to the northwest today behind an early morning
cold frontal passage. Sustained speeds from 10 to 15 mph with
20-foot gusts near 20 mph will be likely through the afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler than the last several days, but
decreasing dew points through the day will still lead to low
relative humidities near 30 percent during the afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 59.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Dewpoint............44 decreasing to 28.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph
                    until late afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1800 ft AGL increasing to 4800-5400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 13 to 22 mph increasing to 23 to 24
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (8000-17500 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).Around 59.

TIME (CST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........42  37  32  11  10  9   9   8   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  54  55  57  58  59  59  59  58
Dewpoint........40  38  37  35  33  31  29  29  28
RH..............60  56  51  43  39  34  32  32  32
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   9   11  12  12  12  12  9   9
20 FT wind gust.20  20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 1.8 2.8 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.3
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.20  21  21  21  22  22  23  23  24
VRate kt-ft/1K..8   8   8   18  18  18  18  18  18
1700FT Mix T(F).52  53  55  57  58  59  59  59  58

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 26.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Dewpoint............24 decreasing to 20 early in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......3700-4900 ft AGL decreasing to 700-2600 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 26 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (3100-17100 knot-ft).
Stability class.....6.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).49 decreasing to 40 early in the evening, then
                    increasing to 43 late in the evening decreasing
                    to 37 early in the morning.

TIME (CST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   6   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   2   2   2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............53  46  43  40  38  36  34  33  31  30  29  28
Dewpoint........26  26  26  26  25  23  22  22  22  22  21  20
RH..............35  45  51  57  59  59  61  63  69  72  72  71
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.9 4.9 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N
Transp wind spd.25  25  26  26  24  22  21  21  21  21  21  20
VRate kt-ft/1K..17  17  17  17  17  17  3   3   3   3   3   3
1700FT Mix T(F).53  46  43  40  38  48  46  44  42  40  39  37

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Min humidity........25 percent.
Dewpoint............18 decreasing to 13 early in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph until late afternoon
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......500-1200 ft AGL increasing to 4400-4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph decreasing to 6 to 7 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6400 knot-ft).
Stability class.....4.
1700FT Avg MIX T(F).38 increasing to 45 in the afternoon.

TIME (CST)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   4   4   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............27  26  26  30  35  38  42  44  46  47  47  46
Dewpoint........19  19  20  20  19  18  17  16  14  13  13  13
RH..............71  74  78  66  52  44  36  32  27  25  25  26
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   8   7   6   6   6   5   5   4   3
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.7 4.0 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  W
Transp wind spd.18  18  18  18  18  17  16  15  12  9   7   6
VRate kt-ft/1K..6   6   6   6   6   6   10  10  10  10  10  10
1700FT Mix T(F).35  35  34  34  36  38  42  44  46  47  47  46

$$
Forecaster...K.HATFIELD
Requested by...Kris Wilson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702742.0/TSA
.EMAIL kriswilson@fs.fed.us



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