Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGAK78 PACR 192247
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED JUL 19 2017

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5:45 AM AKDT SATURDAY, JULY 22,
FOR THE DELTA RIVER ALONG SPENGLER ROAD IN THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE REST OF ALASKA.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

THE 500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING HAS A LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND/BRISTOL BAY REGION... WITH A FRONT FROM SOUTHCENTRAL
THROUGH THE GULF... BRINING RAIN TO MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND.  THERE ARE RIDGES OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY
AND THE NORTHEAST MAINLAND... AS WELL AS OVER THE WESTERN BERING...
AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND/BRISTOL BAY LOW
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC... WHILE A TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENDING AT 4 AM AKDT TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PC RG :  2.60
SVRA2    SILVER SALMON LAKES  PC RG :  1.74
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PC RG :  1.57
CGMA2    CHIGMIT MOUNTAINS    PC RG :  1.57
PAIG     IGIUGIG              PP RZ :  1.00
FPKA2    FOURPEAKED RAWS      PC RG :  0.96
SRVA2    STONY RIVER RAWS     PC RG :  0.90
SDFA2    SOLDOTNA RAWS        PC RG :  0.89
PAEN     KENAI                PP RZ :  0.79
SWNA2    SWANSON RIVER RAWS   PC RG :  0.74
WLCA2    WOLVERINE CREEK      PC RG :  0.65
FAFA2    PFAFF MINE           PC RG :  0.64
NKOA2    INNOKO FLATS RAWS    PC RG :  0.60
PAIL     ILIAMNA              PP RZ :  0.59
PADK     ADAK                 PP RZ :  0.59
PAWR     WHITTIER             PP RZ :  0.56
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :  0.55
EXGA2    EXIT GLACIER         PC R2 :  0.54
PADQ     KODIAK               PP RZ :  0.53
APXA2    KACHEMAK NERRS       PP RG :  0.53
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC R2 :  0.51
NCKA2    NINILCHIK RAWS       PC RG :  0.50
STNA2    STONY STRIP RAWS     PC RG :  0.48
MCWA2    FLAT RAWS            PC RG :  0.48
APTA2    ANCHOR RIVER         PC RG :  0.48
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC R2 :  0.47
RESA2    RESURRECTION RIVER   PC RG :  0.46
PASO     SELDOVIA             PP RZ :  0.45
FOJA2    FOURTH OF JULY CREEK PC RP :  0.45
COVA2    COVILLE RAWS         PC RG :  0.45
KNLA2    KENAI LAKE RAWS      PC RG :  0.44
ALSA2    PORT ALSWORTH RAWS   PC RG :  0.42
CHCA2    CHIEF COVE RAWS      PC RG :  0.41
ILRA2    ILIAMNA RIVER        PC RG :  0.40
PAUN     UNALAKLEET           PP RZ :  0.34
PAHO     HOMER                PP RZ :  0.33
CJXA2    KUSKOKWIM RIVER      PC RG :  0.33
COOA2    KENAI RIVER          PC RG :  0.31
CLCA2    COAL CREEK NPS RAWS  PC RG :  0.31
SGSA2    SKILAK GUARD STATION PC RG :  0.30
BDVA2    BROADVIEW RAWS       PC RG :  0.30
BLSA2    BENTALIT LODGE       PC RG :  0.29
PAMC     MCGRATH              PP RZ :  0.28
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC R2 :  0.28
KILA2    KILBUCK RAWS         PC RG :  0.28
SNIA2    SNIPE LAKE           PC RG :  0.27
SILA2    CARIBOU HILLS        PC RG :  0.27
PAHP     HOOPER BAY           PP RZ :  0.26
PACV     CORDOVA              PP RZ :  0.24
AMBA2    ANIAK SNOTEL         PC R2 :  0.24
ALXA2    ALEXANDER LAKE       PC R2 :  0.24
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER          PC RG :  0.23
SIXA2    SIXMILE CREEK        PC RG :  0.23
PABE     BETHEL               PP RZ :  0.22
GROA2    GROUSE CREEK         PC RG :  0.22
CRBA2    CARIBOU LAKE         PC RG :  0.22
PAPT     PUNTILLA             PP RZ :  0.21
GRAA2    GRANITE CREEK RAWS   PC RG :  0.20

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA... THE SEWARD PENINSULA... AND THE NORTH SLOPE AND MOST OF
THE BROOKS RANGE.  NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE
INTERIOR.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND.  THERE ARE
INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AKPEN... KODIAK ISLAND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA... AND THE SOUTH GULF
COAST.  NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
ACL



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