Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 252321
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE STATE IS LOW.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS ON THE
FINALLY ON THE MOVE. ITS TRANSITION EAST DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY
BEGINS TO OPEN UP THE MAINLAND TO RIDGING BEGINNING OVER THE WEST
COAST ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT DELAY IN THIS CHANGE AS A
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY SWINGS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC BY TUESDAYS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO
END ACROSS THE MAINLAND AND INTO THE PANHANDLE AS THE TROUGH AND LOW
OVER THE ARCTIC PASSES EAST BY TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PANHANDLE AS ONSHORE FLOW AND
INSTABILITY ENHANCE THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM
TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC RM :   2.50
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PP RG :   2.13
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   2.00
MHPA2    MITKOF HWY PETERSBUR PP RZ :   1.96
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   1.80
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   1.75
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   1.70
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :   1.68
GQIA2    QUEEN INLET GLACIER  PP RG :   1.50
SAWA2    SPEEL ARM STATION 4- PC RZ :   1.46
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :   1.40
DBWA2    DRY BAY GLACIER BAY  PP RG :   1.34
SLVA2    SILVIS POWERHOUSE    PP RZ :   1.32
TTKA2    TATITLEK             PC RM :   1.10
PAWG     WRANGELL             PP RZ :   1.02
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PP RZ :   1.00
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   1.00
GNUA2    NUNATAK UPPER GLACIE PP RG :   1.00
GNLA2    NUNATAK LOWER GLACIE PP RG :   1.00
ALEA2    ALSEK RIVER AT DRY B PP RG :   1.00
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PP RG :   0.99
CRGA2    CRAIG WEATHER STATIO PP RG :   0.95
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PC RZ :   0.94
KKEA2    KAKE RAWS            PC RG :   0.88
KTNA2    BEAVER FALLS POWERHO PP RZ :   0.85
PAJN     JUNEAU               PP RZ :   0.83
MNDA2    MENDENHALL LAKE LEVE PP RG :   0.80
AUKA2    AUKE BAY LARC        PC RP :   0.80
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   0.78
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PP RG :   0.73
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   0.72
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.70
DCSA2    DAVIES CREEK SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.70
PAGN     ANGOON               PP RZ :   0.68

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAINLAND... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND INCLUDING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
ETH


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