Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 281946
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

VALID 12Z MON AUG 01 2016 - 12Z FRI AUG 05 2016

...GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

THE WPC ALASKAN MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED
FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED GUDIANCE FROM
THE 12 UTC GFS/00 UTC ECMWF AND THE GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS DAYS 4-8. FORECAST SPREAD IS REDUCED COMPARED TO THE PAST
FEW DAYS...BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO AT LEAST AVERAGE
LEVELS.

...PATTERN AND WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

THE GRADUAL PASSAGE OF AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH
SPLIT OVER THE GULF OF AK MON-NEXT THU IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
COMPACT SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT
UNDERNEATH. THIS WOULD FUEL A PROLONGED ANOTHER PERIOD WITH SOME
HEAVIER RAINS WRAPPED INTO SRN AND SERN AK AS ENHANCED BY FAVORED
COASTAL TERRAIN. MEANWHILE...ENERGETIC NRN STREAM ARCTIC TROUGHING
ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED BUT MODEST TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION PASSAGE/COOLING INLAND DOWN ACROSS WRN/NRN AK NEXT
WEEK. LATER...GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR APPROACH
INTO THE BERING SEA OF AMPLE ERN ASIAN ENERGY THAT MAY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT A WEEK OR SO.

SCHICHTEL

$$





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