Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
633 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 31/06
UTC: A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHILE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN/EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FAVORS A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT
THAT IS VENTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
AT LOW LEVELS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST...A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ISLAND CHAIN/EARN CARIBBEAN. A
TROPICAL WAVE/TRADE WIND SURGE TO THE EAST ALIGNS ALONG 45W/46W.

THE MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS TO HOLD NEARLY UNCHANGED OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FORECAST
TO ENVELOP THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. GDI FORECAST SHOWS MOST
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE ON THURSDAY EXPECT A
GRADUAL DECREASE FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED TRADE WIND SURGE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INTENSIFICATION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN AND GENERATION OF A
VERY STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION. FURTHERMORE...PER METEOSAT RGB
DUST PRODUCT...IT LOOKS LIKE A SAHARAN AIR LAYER ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE. SO EXPECTING A SHARP DROP IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY WITH DRY AND DUSTY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE
WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE...UNDER FAVORABLE MJO CONDITIONS...EXPECTING HEAVY
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TODAY AND TOMORROW. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE
GFS IS PROJECTING RAINFALL MAXIMA OF 2-3 INCHES. IN A
SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW... MOST ACTIVE IS TO LIKELY CLUSTER
ACROSS EL YUNQUE/SAN JUAN METRO AREA AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO. THE ARW VERSION OF THE HRWRF SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
THIS QUITE WELL.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM MAY 31/12UTC:

TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC.
INITIAL    24    36    48    60    72    84    96         TYPE
44W        46W   48W   50W   52W   54W   56W   58W        EW
72W        75W   78W   DISSIPATES                         TW

CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

$$





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