Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXCA20 KWBC 101129
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
628 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEBRUARY
10/06 UTC: BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO GENERALLY DOMINATE
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC-NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THE TROUGH HOLDS...A SUBTROPICAL JET
MAXIMA IS TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...PULLING
CLOSE TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS IS
TO THEN SUSTAIN A MID/UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS THEN SHOW DEEPER INSTABILITY ON
SATURDAY-MONDAY...WITH THE GFS PROJECTING CONSIDERABLY HIGHER PWAT
AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. A RIDGE TO THE
EAST...MEANWHILE...IS TO DOMINATE THE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AS IT HOLDS...A TUTT LOW IS TO RETROGRESS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE...ENTERING THE LEEWARD ISLES EARLY
ON SATURDAY MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS AS IT MEANDERS NORTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATER IN THE WEEKEND IT MERGES INTO
LONG WAVE PATTERN TO THE NORTH...TO HELP SUSTAIN UNSETTLED PATTERN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS PWAT INCREASES AND MID UPPER ENERGY
ADVECTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...THE GDI FORECAST SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE GFS AND UKMET SEEM TO AGREE ON A WETTER PATTERN AS THE WEEKEND
WEARS ON...WITH AN APPROACHING SHEAR LINE EARLY NEXT WEEK LIKELY
TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
OPTIMISTIC...BUT LACKING MESO-SYNOPTIC FORCING WE HAVE NOTED THAT
IT TENDS TO UNDERESTIMATE AIR MASS TYPE CONVECTION/SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. SO WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE WETTER MODELS.

HUNTE...BMS (BARBADOS)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$




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